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2 years ago ::
Jan 22, 2011 - 3:43PM
#48
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Bruce, Hudson lead breakout players to watch in 2011
Ivan Nova, P, New York YankeesWith Andy Pettitte not yet committed to returning for a 17th season and A.J. Burnett erratic as ever, the 24-year-old Nova may be the Yankees third most trusted starter behind CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes. Nova was brilliant in flashes last year, showcasing a mid-90s fastball and a devastating change in starts against Toronto, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Boston. The big question is Nova's stamina. He habitually cruised into the fifth and sixth innings before breaking down:
Overall, the 187 innings (major and minor league) he pitched last year were a huge jump, almost 40 more than he threw in 2009 and nearly 50 more than his previous single-season high in professional ball. If he can learn to go deeper into games without faltering, he could lessen the impact of New York's failure to sign innings-eating star Cliff Lee this offseason.
2 years ago ::
Jan 23, 2011 - 8:46AM
#49
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Yankees Prospect Profiles: RHP David PhelpsBackground David Phelps, 24, is a right handed pitcher listed at 6-3 and 190-pounds. He was born in St. Louis, Missouri and attended Hazelwood West High School and later went to the University of Notre Dame. He was drafted by the Yankees in the 14th round of the amateur draft and signed for a signing bonus of $150,000. In his first year at Notre Dame, Phelps was primarily a reliever and had a 7.09 ERA. It was his sophomore year that turned out to be very big for him. In 15 starts that year he had a 1.88 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 110 innings. His junior year was a pretty big let down though as his strikeout rate dropped and his ERA ballooned to 4.65. Phelps expected to get drafted much earlier in the draft and was disappointed to fall to the 14th round. It was likely his poor junior season that caused him to fall that low, but the Yankees were lucky enough to realize his potential after his sophomore year. Pro Career After signing with the Yankees Phelps started his career with the Short Season A-Ball Staten Island Yankees in 2008. He wasn’t exactly overpowering, but steadily became the ace of the Staten Island staff with a 2.72 ERA and just 18 walks over 72.2 innings(2.2 BB/9). His solid season earned him a promotion to Low-A Charleston in 2009. There he pitched 112.2 innings over 19 games putting up an impressive 2.80 ERA. His walk ratio improved to 2.0. He was very impressive in Low-A so he got a late season promotion to High-A Tampa where he pitched better than at any other point in his career. Over just seven games he had a 1.17 ERA with a 1.4 BB/9. It was just a small sample size in High-A, but he pitched so well that he started 2010 in Double-A. In Trenton he continued his hot ways putting up a 2.04 ERA over 88.1 innings and 14 games. For the first time his WHIP dropped below 1.00 to 0.974 even though his walk rate was the highest of his career at 2.3. By the end of the year the Yankees promoted him to Triple-A where he pitched in 12 games over 70.1 innings. His ERA was a bit on the high side relative to the other levels at 3.07, but he was promoted fairly quickly and dealing with the toughest competition he had faced yet. Scouting Report Phelps has a fastball that sits in the 93-95 mph range that he shows excellent command with. He also throws a two-seam fastball occasionally that comes in at 90 mph. Phelps used 2009 to improve his slider into a good pitch and learned a curveball in 2010 that has real potential to be a good pitch. He also throw a changeup. Phelps works fast and works in the zone. None of his pitches are really of the plus-plus variety, but he has put up great numbers by constantly throwing strikes. His stuff has improved in each of the past two seasons so there is reason to believe that he can still improve. At this point he seems like he has good middle of the rotation capability even in the AL East, but could easily become a key member of the Yankees bullpen at some point as well. 2011 Outlook Phelps will almost definitely start the 2011 season in Triple-A, but with the Yankees rotation in flux it is not impossible that he could get called up to the Bronx rather quickly. He’s been healthy and pitched at least 150 innings each of the past three years including college so if he continues to improve his stuff he has nothing more to prove. Stats
2 years ago ::
Jan 23, 2011 - 8:53AM
#50
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Taking a Gander at Noesi and PhelpsMost of you probably know by now that the closest pitching prospects the Yankees have to the majors are David Phelps and Hector Noesi. No, they’re not projected as top of the rotation starters. Back end of the rotation starters are still valuable though which should be evident if you’ve checked out the 2011 rotation for the Yankees at this point. So while they don’t have the upside of Banuelos or Betances, I figured we could take a look at two guys who could wind up contributing in 2011. Both Phelps and Noesi are something close to control specialists. They both throw in the low to mid 90s. Phelps has a good two-seam fastball as well as a curve while Noesi has a good changeup and solid curveball. Both pitchers throw sliders but neither does with much success. For most of his career, Phelps managed to fly under the radar. Drafted in 2008 out of Notre Dame, Phelps hit the ground running and has never really slowed down. In 3 minor league seasons across 5 levels Phelps has never posted a FIP higher than 3.41 or walked more than 2.3 batters per 9 innings. He’s been without a major injury, probably because his delivery has always been smooth. He’s been cruising since his professional debut. Hector Noesi has had a bit of a longer path. Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2005, Noesi missed a good portion of 2007 with Tommy John surgery and a banned substances suspension. After rehabbing in 2008, Noesi found success in 2009 posting a 2.25 FIP across 2 levels and carried that into 2010. Phelps and Noesi both spent a majority of their 2010 seasons in AA Trenton. While Noesi popped up on a lot of national radars entering the season, Phelps was largely ignored. This is pretty understandable since scouts pay more attention to what a pitcher throws and how hard rather than the results in the minors. Still though, the 2010 numbers were pretty rosy for both Phelps and Noesi. I used Baseball America’s list of their top Eastern League prospects to highlight just how well they did. If you’re under the impression I’m comparing either of their potentials to the likes of Kyle Drabek or Zach Britton, please work on your reading comprehension and/or kill yourself. Click to enlarge the chart. David Phelps was not included in this list but I added him in here anyhow. The list is sorted by tRA+, which is adjusted for park, defense and league adjusted like OPS+ or ERA+. Anything over 100 is above average and anything under 100 is below average. All the pitchers on this list had at least 50 IP in the Eastern league which is a small sample, but it’s the minors, guys move around a bit. Obviously Phelps benefited from a pretty good BABIP but these results aren’t wildly divergent from his career numbers. Trenton is a pretty good pitchers park, even for the friendly Eastern League and that’s probably a big part of the difference between the FIPs and tRAs for Brackman, Phelps and Noesi. Another thing to observe is Phelps low HR/9. He does have that nice two-seam fastball to keep the ball on the ground but his GB% was actually down from last year and he had a fluky low HR/BIA rate (Home runs per ball in air). Hector Noesi on the other hand has always been a fly ball pitcher (fun times ahead in New Yankee Stadium!) and his batted ball distribution isn’t very different from his career rates. Phelps and Noesi obviously benefited from their control quite a bit in 2010 and the results were nice. However in the big picture, this doesn’t mean very much. Noesi and Phelps don’t have the upside of these other prospects (for the 6,000th time). Back end of the rotation starters are pretty valuable though and if thinking of Sergio Mitre taking the mound in the bottom of the first makes you cry at night, well these are your in house alternatives. I’m sure both will be looked at pretty closely in spring training. Noesi and Phelps both saw some time in AAA last year but it would probably behoove them to return there in order to keep working. Minor league results are nice but will good fastball command and soft secondary offerings cut it in the AL East? Probably not. Hopefully both pitchers will continue to improve and we’ll be seeing them in the Bronx sometime soon. For a full review, check out these links: Hector Noesi- PendingPinstripes, TYU, River Ave Blues, Fangraphs David Phelps- River Ave Blues, TYU, Fangraphs
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