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May 21, 2012 -- 3:02PM, NYYGuy wrote:

May 21, 2012 -- 2:31PM, 61in61 wrote:

May 21, 2012 -- 1:27PM, NYYGuy wrote:

".325 batting average against"

 

His peripherals tell me not to worry about him, so I won't. The difference in his K/9 and K/BB rate this season compared to his last two is like night and day.  Oh and he's got a .393 BABIP. Nuff said.

 

 

 

 

How is a BABIP of .393 good?

A high BABIP has a lot more to do with bad luck than it does for pitching poorly. There's a good reason why that stat almost always corrects itself to the league average (around .300) over a season for any pitcher, much less a guy who has a .280 career BABIP going into this season. 

 

So I just can't take a pitcher's stats seriously when he has that high a BABIP.

So you are saying that Nova is unlucky and the opposition is getting too many cheap hits?

Lets look at Verlander. His BABIP is .220. Are you saying he is extra lucky?

I don't know. It seems you are trying to find something, anything to put a positive spin on Nova. What does seem lucky to me is that he's 4-2 with the numbers he has.

Maybe to a lesser extent than pitchers but BABIP applies to hitters too. Austin Jackson had a white hot start for the Tigers a couple years ago and everyone was ready to show up at Cashmans with torches and pitchforks and then put A-Jax in the Hall of Fame.  Some of us noticed his laughably absurd .600 BABIP and didn't buy into the hype.

We had good reason not to. After his BABIP corrected itself he ended up hitting an ordinary .745 OPS for the season.  

BABIP never lies.

May 21, 2012 -- 6:11PM, ratmann wrote:

no problem , i am getting tired of the same people attacking anyone  who says the slightest thing negative about the yanks. it takes more than blind loyalty to be a fan.

You go to a lot more games than most people here. I think you have the right to say what you want to about this team.

May 21, 2012 -- 4:53PM, NYYGuy wrote:

May 21, 2012 -- 4:31PM, 61in61 wrote:

May 21, 2012 -- 3:02PM, NYYGuy wrote:

May 21, 2012 -- 2:31PM, 61in61 wrote:

May 21, 2012 -- 1:27PM, NYYGuy wrote:

".325 batting average against"

 

His peripherals tell me not to worry about him, so I won't. The difference in his K/9 and K/BB rate this season compared to his last two is like night and day.  Oh and he's got a .393 BABIP. Nuff said.

 

 

 

 

How is a BABIP of .393 good?

A high BABIP has a lot more to do with bad luck than it does for pitching poorly. There's a good reason why that stat almost always corrects itself to the league average (around .300) over a season for any pitcher, much less a guy who has a .280 career BABIP going into this season. 

 

So I just can't take a pitcher's stats seriously when he has that high a BABIP.

So you are saying that Nova is unlucky and the opposition is getting too many cheap hits?

Lets look at Verlander. His BABIP is .220. Are you saying he is extra lucky?

I don't know. It seems you are trying to find something, anything to put a positive spin on Nova. What does seem lucky to me is that he's 4-2 with the numbers he has.

Yup, that's exactly what I'm saying.  I don't know about "cheap hits" but balls put into play are finding holes instead of gloves much more than the statistical norm. Major league pitchers regardless of ability will generally have BABIPs in the .280-.300 range. There's a good reason for that.

Hughes's BABIP was in the .100's a couple years ago, and everyone was on his bandwagon. I wasn't. Same reason, really. And his numbers fell off a cliff... as expected.

Yes, Verlander's low BABIP means he's benefitting from luck on balls put into play. Or he could just be a statistical anomaly. I doubt it though. He's also a big strikeout pitcher so that mitigates some of the correction that will inevitably happen.

It's fine to not really understand what a stat like BABIP is. But that doesn't mean it's a made-up stat from someone trying to be a homer about things. I assure you, it isn't, and I'm not.

As far as pitchers are concerned you are making the assumption that they will eventually migrate to the statistical norm. You are also assuming that the pitcher has the ability to benefit from that migration. It could be that the better pitchers have a lower BABIP because fewer well hit balls are put into play. If a ball is not well hit the odds would dictate that those balls will be less likely to find holes. Conversely if a pitcher is giving up a lot of hard hit liners they are going to find holes.

Last year Nova's BABIP was .284. If as you predict that number migrates back to the league norm then a 16 win season might be difficult to duplicate. FanGraphs has Nova projected to as low as 11 wins.

May 21, 2012 -- 6:42PM, 61in61 wrote:

It could be that the better pitchers have a lower BABIP because fewer well hit balls are put into play. If a ball is not well hit the odds would dictate that those balls will be less likely to find holes. Conversely if a pitcher is giving up a lot of hard hit liners they are going to find holes.

There's no "could be" about it -- what you just said is true at any level of the game, and is common knowledge to anyone who has ever picked up a bat or a ball.