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Kuroda.

Pettitte, and it won't be close. If Kuroda got us 11 wins this season, I would be ecstatic.

May 22, 2012 -- 10:30PM, JoeGNJ wrote:

May 22, 2012 -- 10:24PM, AJFreeway wrote:

Pettitte, and it won't be close. If Kuroda got us 11 wins this season, I would be ecstatic.

If you said that in ST AJ Id have said you were nuts. I'm not so sure anymore. Id be thirlled with 12 the way he's going.

Kuroda's not a terrible pitcher; the problem is he doesn't get much run support at all (3 runs/game). He lost 2 starts where he only gave up 2 earned runs, and his last start where he only gave up 3. While a pitcher can control their ERA, they have little to no control over their W/L record when the offense isn't scoring any runs. That's why I don't think he'll win a ton of games.

May 22, 2012 -- 10:19PM, JoeGNJ wrote:

Andy Petitte or Hiroki Kuroda?

The better question is "starting with Andy's first start and going forward which pitcher will give up fewer runs per 9 IP?"

As others have noted, wins and losses are not only related to the pitcher's effectiveness but run support. And total runs given up divided by IP, not just earned runs, over the course of is a better measure of how well a pitcher performed.

Earned runs are on the pitcher (and, to some extent, the defense behind him and the extent to which a reliever manages to strand inherited runners).  But some unearned runs are on the pitcher as well.  Over the course of 30+ starts it should even out.

Right now, I'd say Pettitte, IF he stays healthy.