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Nationals To Sign Patrick Corbin
4 months ago  ::  Dec 05, 2018 - 1:33PM #51
jimwest
Posts: 1,288

Dec 5, 2018 -- 7:01AM, bumper wrote:


we were led to believe corbin was our #1 target. the phillies had said they wouldn't be outbid. certainly disappointed but sometimes things don't work and you move on. the additional year apparently was the dealbreaker for a guy with question marks. guess that puts happ or eovaldi on the frontburner. arod seems to really like eovaldi. or maybe cashman surprises us with another trade like he did with paxton. no need to freak, it's the 1st week of december. 




If the Phillies said they would not be outbid, and then did get outbid, they had their reasons. Perhaps they too, like the Yankees, had a ceiling of $ they wanted to spend (or years), or they didn't feel Corbin was worth $140m or the 6 years.


They had more incentive to go higher on him, since they lost him to an NL east rival, so if they let Corbin go to the Nats, that probably tells us all something.

4 months ago  ::  Dec 05, 2018 - 2:53PM #52
qwik3457
Posts: 11,597

Dec 5, 2018 -- 9:23AM, cleanuphtr12 wrote:


Dec 5, 2018 -- 9:19AM, BigGuy wrote:


Smart not going the extra year,  I like Corbin as much as anybody, but really, last year was his best year.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats resigned Harper now too, although I wish the Yankees would and put him on 1st.  I'd move to Evoldi now and Happ as my 2nd choice. A trade for the Indians Bauer could be a possiblity too. 




I'm going to keep saying this...  Eovaldi would be a mistake.



2 time Tommy John surgery survivor means his arm could fall off at any time.


Never had an ERA under 3.63.


Inconsistent.


Doesn't miss bats.


PLEASE avoid this guy.  We already had him once and the idea that he has magically changed because he added the cutter and put up a 3.80 ERA (not his career best) and had 20 good postseason innings is just so misguided.  If the Yankees act afraid to give Corbin 6 years then turn around and give Eovaldi 4 I really don't know what to say.




I would point out that he made a major change in his pitch mix last year, featuring the cutter a lot more often. It proved effective. His swinning strike percentage was well below avereage at about 8.5% for his career before last year. It jumped 2% last year to 10.7%, which is about average for all pitchers (including relievers, who usually have a higher rate than starters), and slightly above average for starting pitchers.


But you're right that he's a serious risk for a 3rd TJ surgery. And you're right that signing him to a 4-5 year contract is extremely risky. I wouldn't do it, either.

Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
4 months ago  ::  Dec 05, 2018 - 3:31PM #53
cleanuphtr12
Posts: 871

Dec 5, 2018 -- 2:53PM, qwik3457 wrote:


Dec 5, 2018 -- 9:23AM, cleanuphtr12 wrote:


Dec 5, 2018 -- 9:19AM, BigGuy wrote:


Smart not going the extra year,  I like Corbin as much as anybody, but really, last year was his best year.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats resigned Harper now too, although I wish the Yankees would and put him on 1st.  I'd move to Evoldi now and Happ as my 2nd choice. A trade for the Indians Bauer could be a possiblity too. 




I'm going to keep saying this...  Eovaldi would be a mistake.



2 time Tommy John surgery survivor means his arm could fall off at any time.


Never had an ERA under 3.63.


Inconsistent.


Doesn't miss bats.


PLEASE avoid this guy.  We already had him once and the idea that he has magically changed because he added the cutter and put up a 3.80 ERA (not his career best) and had 20 good postseason innings is just so misguided.  If the Yankees act afraid to give Corbin 6 years then turn around and give Eovaldi 4 I really don't know what to say.




I would point out that he made a major change in his pitch mix last year, featuring the cutter a lot more often. It proved effective. His swinning strike percentage was well below avereage at about 8.5% for his career before last year. It jumped 2% last year to 10.7%, which is about average for all pitchers (including relievers, who usually have a higher rate than starters), and slightly above average for starting pitchers.


But you're right that he's a serious risk for a 3rd TJ surgery. And you're right that signing him to a 4-5 year contract is extremely risky. I wouldn't do it, either.





Yea, he did make a change in pitch mix - and I'd be a hypocrite if I ignored that while pointing out Corbin's similar change...



But the difference here is that Corbin's change actually produced significant results.  Corbin's 4% jump in swStr% lead to overall excellence. 



You discussed Eovaldi's jump, but other than having a higher K/9, it really didn't change the overall results.  If I told you in 2014 or 2015 that Eo was going to put up a 3.80 ERA, you'd find that to be completely believable without really needing to believe something had changed.  The thing is if I had told you in 2014 or 2015 that Eo was going to put up a 4.80 ERA, you'd probably find that equally believable...



So the end result of Eo's change in pitch mix was putting up a season that was on the better end of what you'd expect him to do in a typical season while striking out a league average number of batters?  I'm not that impressed.  Give me the guy that made a change in pitch mix that resulted in being a top pitcher.

_______________________________________________

Please note:  I'm arguing against your post, not against you as a person.  I respect your right to have a different opinion even if I completely disagree with every word you wrote.
4 months ago  ::  Dec 05, 2018 - 5:45PM #54
qwik3457
Posts: 11,597

Dec 5, 2018 -- 3:31PM, cleanuphtr12 wrote:


Yea, he did make a change in pitch mix - and I'd be a hypocrite if I ignored that while pointing out Corbin's similar change...


But the difference here is that Corbin's change actually produced significant results.  Corbin's 4% jump in swStr% lead to overall excellence. 


You discussed Eovaldi's jump, but other than having a higher K/9, it really didn't change the overall results.  If I told you in 2014 or 2015 that Eo was going to put up a 3.80 ERA, you'd find that to be completely believable without really needing to believe something had changed.  The thing is if I had told you in 2014 or 2015 that Eo was going to put up a 4.80 ERA, you'd probably find that equally believable...


So the end result of Eo's change in pitch mix was putting up a season that was on the better end of what you'd expect him to do in a typical season while striking out a league average number of batters?  I'm not that impressed.  Give me the guy that made a change in pitch mix that resulted in being a top pitcher.




Eovaldi improved in more than just Swinging Strike % and K rate. His BB rate was the best of his career. His Hit/9 dropped below 9 for the first time in 5 years. His K/BB rate was by far the best of his career, more than double his career average and nearly 1.75 K/BB better than he had ever done in his career. Obviously, his K-BB% was by far the best of his career as well. He paid for it with a higher HR rate, but that mysteriously disappeared with the Red Sox as well. His K/BB was nearly twice as good as the average AL starter.


He allowed more flyballs, and more HR per FB, but he got nearly twice as many popups as his career rate. Those three things are probably related to each other and to his new pitch mix. He threw 33% cutters; he'd never thrown more than 7% before, and noticeably cut his use of his fastball, splitter and slider. I don't know if it's as dramatic a change as Corbin made, but it's still a pretty signifcant change.


If you're saying the Yanks shouldn't sign Eovaldi to a long-term contract, I agree. If you're saying that Corbin is a better risk than Eovaldi, I agree. If you're saying you'd much rather have Corbin than Eovaldi, I agree. If you're saying Corbin is more likely to pitch well than Eovaldi going forward, I agree. I just don't see Corbin as a savior or an ace, and while the risk of his contract is much less than that of giving a 4-5 year deal to Eovaldi, it still carries significant risk for the Nationals.

Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
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