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Setting the Yankees rotation
8 months ago  ::  Feb 02, 2019 - 9:09PM #11
RobS44
Posts: 5,608

Feb 2, 2019 -- 10:13AM, CarolinaNYY wrote:

Assuming no trades or signings, and the 5 starters are Paxton, Happ, Severino, Tanaka and CC.  How would you set the rotation if it were up to you?


Here is how I would set it and the reasons why.

No. 1:  Paxton --  They traded for him in the hopes he can stay healthy and be a legitimate ace so lets get right to work to proving the theory.

No. 2:   Tanaka --  I trust the exeprience.

No. 3:  Happ--  I think you will see my plan involves a lefty-righy mix so I slot Happ into this spot.

No. 4:  Severino--  I still think he can be a legit ace, but honestly, I think putting him at the 4 is a good position for him to releive the pressure, and I love having a high velocity guy after Happ and before:

No. 5:  CC--  The easiest guy to slot as I just dont see any other spot that makes sense.

So my rotation is a left hander with ace potential, an experienced right hander, a solid lefy going 3rd, a potential ace as the number 4 (which is a pretty awesome advantage early on) and a solid number 5 to finish things out.

I imagine most people will think I have Severino too low and I get that.  But I just dont see a lot of downside to taking some pressure off the youngest guy and hopefully he pitches himself to a much higher position as the year goes on...



can we wait until we see if Paxton can a) stay healthy and b) perform in NY before annointing him the #1 starter?

8 months ago  ::  Feb 02, 2019 - 10:20PM #12
nost
Posts: 324

Feb 2, 2019 -- 3:36PM, 7mick7 wrote:


Feb 2, 2019 -- 2:20PM, nost wrote:


Feb 2, 2019 -- 11:49AM, louisiana_lightning wrote:


Feb 2, 2019 -- 11:33AM, nost wrote:


Honest they should go to a six man rotation with CC beingh number 6.  What they should do or still try to do is sign a 200+ innings guy or anoter true # 2 to slot in between Pax and Luis then this team would be sick!  



Everyone get a extra day off, maybe Louie won't get tired.  TO me CC was a waste of a signing but if they go to a 6 man rotation then it would be fine.  




You mean a previously 200 inning guy because if you have a 6 man rotation even if CC only gets 17 starts a pitcher would have to average 7 innings to achieve 200 innings.  No starters averaged that many innings in the majors last year, especially not on a team with a bullpen like ours.



 


You're serioulsy comparing CC to Bartolo Colon? Based on what?



I don't like CC as a #5 and the only way to make this current rotation better is by getting another starter.  I'm not looking for another Cc or anoter 8-8 guy slot in someone if they can that can win 15 games.  Then I'll like Cc as a 6th starter or a spot starter to give guys a extra day.  Right now they have a Bartolo Colon on their hands W a number 5.  


Let's not even mention if one of their starters goes down where they will be at.  Injuries do happen.




You're serioulsy comparing CC to Bartolo Colon? Based on what? You honestly think you are going to get 15 wins out of a bottom of the rotation pitcher. I would say your expectations are way to high. Since CC reinevented himself following the 2015 season he is more than an formiable #5. Not many (if any) have a 5th starter that has pitched to the tune of a 3.77 ERA over their last 86 starts. I think realistically if you get 12 wins from your #5 starter you are way ahead of the game and if CC gets his ussually 29-30 starts he could achieve that.





I don't want a bottom of the rotation guy.  I want someone to slot in between Louie and Paxton.  Leaving CC to do whatever spot starter to give days off or shoot for the sky.  But knowing his bad knees , age , etc.  Going with the current rotation is risky. 

8 months ago  ::  Feb 02, 2019 - 10:21PM #13
nost
Posts: 324

Feb 2, 2019 -- 9:09PM, RobS44 wrote:


Feb 2, 2019 -- 10:13AM, CarolinaNYY wrote:

Assuming no trades or signings, and the 5 starters are Paxton, Happ, Severino, Tanaka and CC.  How would you set the rotation if it were up to you?


Here is how I would set it and the reasons why.

No. 1:  Paxton --  They traded for him in the hopes he can stay healthy and be a legitimate ace so lets get right to work to proving the theory.

No. 2:   Tanaka --  I trust the exeprience.

No. 3:  Happ--  I think you will see my plan involves a lefty-righy mix so I slot Happ into this spot.

No. 4:  Severino--  I still think he can be a legit ace, but honestly, I think putting him at the 4 is a good position for him to releive the pressure, and I love having a high velocity guy after Happ and before:

No. 5:  CC--  The easiest guy to slot as I just dont see any other spot that makes sense.

So my rotation is a left hander with ace potential, an experienced right hander, a solid lefy going 3rd, a potential ace as the number 4 (which is a pretty awesome advantage early on) and a solid number 5 to finish things out.

I imagine most people will think I have Severino too low and I get that.  But I just dont see a lot of downside to taking some pressure off the youngest guy and hopefully he pitches himself to a much higher position as the year goes on...



can we wait until we see if Paxton can a) stay healthy and b) perform in NY before annointing him the #1 starter?





I'll say this once twice three time or more.



I like Pax as a number 3 BUT the Yankees need to gout and get a number 2.  Then everything falls in place.

8 months ago  ::  Feb 04, 2019 - 6:25PM #14
felipe27point5
Posts: 2,277

I disagree quite a bit with that. For me it's Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, Happ, CC


For all this talk of pressure, Severino is the guy you handed the ball to when your entire season was on the line against the A's, and he put up a goose egg before handing it to the bullpen. He's our guy. The reason he started that game was because he's our guy, and they gave the ball to him to reiterate that. What's changed since the offseason?


As far as changing up the rotation as the season goes on, that's really not how it ever works. They often reset it at the ASB, but otherwise it's "whose turn is it next?" And outside of the first couple of games, the rotation doesn't matter all that much anyways. Consider the Yankees open with a 3 game set against the O's, and the Tigers open with a 4 game set against the Jays. So when we play them the second series, our 4 faces their 5, our 5 faces their 1, and our 1 faces their 2. At other points we'll be off because of a rainout, a double header, a missed start, or any other number of things to change up. If you remember the Jeter diving into the stands game, that was Pedro martinez vs Brad Halsey - clearly not an even matchup.


Give Sevy the ball, let him take the lead rotation and maybe use that as a confidence boost to take the next step and become a true ace. We're talking about a guy that was pacing with Sale and Verlander through the allstar break as being the best pitcher in the league



Feb 2, 2019 -- 10:13AM, CarolinaNYY wrote:

Assuming no trades or signings, and the 5 starters are Paxton, Happ, Severino, Tanaka and CC.  How would you set the rotation if it were up to you?


Here is how I would set it and the reasons why.

No. 1:  Paxton --  They traded for him in the hopes he can stay healthy and be a legitimate ace so lets get right to work to proving the theory.

No. 2:   Tanaka --  I trust the exeprience.

No. 3:  Happ--  I think you will see my plan involves a lefty-righy mix so I slot Happ into this spot.

No. 4:  Severino--  I still think he can be a legit ace, but honestly, I think putting him at the 4 is a good position for him to releive the pressure, and I love having a high velocity guy after Happ and before:

No. 5:  CC--  The easiest guy to slot as I just dont see any other spot that makes sense.

So my rotation is a left hander with ace potential, an experienced right hander, a solid lefy going 3rd, a potential ace as the number 4 (which is a pretty awesome advantage early on) and a solid number 5 to finish things out.

I imagine most people will think I have Severino too low and I get that.  But I just dont see a lot of downside to taking some pressure off the youngest guy and hopefully he pitches himself to a much higher position as the year goes on...




You are welcome to recall my posts when it becomes that i'm proven wrong as long as we judge it on the merits of what we knew to be true at the time it was posted.
8 months ago  ::  Feb 04, 2019 - 6:38PM #15
CarolinaNYY
Posts: 68



Feb 4, 2019 -- 6:25PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


I disagree quite a bit with that. For me it's Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, Happ, CC


I get that.  I imagine most people would disagree with the way I would set it up.


It was just for conversation purposes.  I am fine with whatever they do, I think they are one of only a handful of teams that has 5 legitimate starters and you can be comfortable with all 5 of them taking the ball every 5th day.


 


8 months ago  ::  Feb 04, 2019 - 8:10PM #16
maplebats
Posts: 839

We have the regular season and the post season. ”The rotation” is shorthand for talking about pitching matchups and innings load, in my understanding. Generally speaking, in the regular season the importance of the rotation is weighted towards innings load. In other words, arrange your rotation such that your starters are in order according to not just who is your most effective starter but which starter can absorb the most innnings thus preserving the bullpen. To that end, Severino is the #1 starter, either Tanaka or Paxton are #2 and #3, Happ #4 and Sabathia #5. Severino needs the opportunity to hone the myriad skills required to be a true ace he can become, and growing his confidence is key to that progression. He will be best served by dueling head-to-head against the league’s best starters. After Severino you have two starters that are really #3-caliber starters, especially when you consider Paxton’s record of innings load, which is why so many Yankees fans wanted to see a true #1a or #2 starter brought in. In the regular season, this bullpen is deep and strong enough to keep games close for the potent lineup to make late-game comebacks. 


In the post season, however, matchups are far more important than innings load. Severino can match up inning to inning with any starter in the league. Sevy vs Sale or Verlander? Fine. Can we be as confident with regard Paxton or Tanaka vs Price, Eovaldi or Porcello? How about vs Cole, Keuchel and Morton? We know about Tanaka but Paxton has never pitched in the pressure of the post season. Will Paxton shut down lefties? Will he perform in the crucible of the AL East? Will he be effective against the Red Sox lineup? The regular season rotation is clear but I am still not confident with this rotation in the post season. Hopefully, the challenge will inspire Paxton to take the next step and become a #1a. If not, there is always the July trade deadline to find a true #1 or #2 starter. 

8 months ago  ::  Feb 05, 2019 - 8:57AM #17
yankoldfan
Posts: 7,984

Feb 4, 2019 -- 8:10PM, maplebats wrote:


We have the regular season and the post season. ”The rotation” is shorthand for talking about pitching matchups and innings load, in my understanding. Generally speaking, in the regular season the importance of the rotation is weighted towards innings load. In other words, arrange your rotation such that your starters are in order according to not just who is your most effective starter but which starter can absorb the most innnings thus preserving the bullpen. To that end, Severino is the #1 starter, either Tanaka or Paxton are #2 and #3, Happ #4 and Sabathia #5. Severino needs the opportunity to hone the myriad skills required to be a true ace he can become, and growing his confidence is key to that progression. He will be best served by dueling head-to-head against the league’s best starters. After Severino you have two starters that are really #3-caliber starters, especially when you consider Paxton’s record of innings load, which is why so many Yankees fans wanted to see a true #1a or #2 starter brought in. In the regular season, this bullpen is deep and strong enough to keep games close for the potent lineup to make late-game comebacks. 


In the post season, however, matchups are far more important than innings load. Severino can match up inning to inning with any starter in the league. Sevy vs Sale or Verlander? Fine. Can we be as confident with regard Paxton or Tanaka vs Price, Eovaldi or Porcello? How about vs Cole, Keuchel and Morton? We know about Tanaka but Paxton has never pitched in the pressure of the post season. Will Paxton shut down lefties? Will he perform in the crucible of the AL East? Will he be effective against the Red Sox lineup? The regular season rotation is clear but I am still not confident with this rotation in the post season. Hopefully, the challenge will inspire Paxton to take the next step and become a #1a. If not, there is always the July trade deadline to find a true #1 or #2 starter. 




In all reality, our pitching wasn't as big of a problem as was our hitting with runners in scoring position and striking out way too often... It's tough to win games when you don't score and especially score early... Pitchers love to pitch with the lead, they hate to have to pitch like if they give up a run early it's all over with.. The last couple of years this team seemed to either be all or nothing, we score a bunch of runs early and we go on and kick butt, but when the offense goes cold, they just can't score at all, one game 8-9 runs and the next 1-2 runs, it's not what makes good teams...

8 months ago  ::  Feb 05, 2019 - 11:25AM #18
felipe27point5
Posts: 2,277

I disagree. The team won 100 games, so i don't think blame deserves to rest anywhere for offense or defense or pitching. And they finished second to a team that won 108 games - that's truly a historical number of wins. There's no slouch in how the team did overall. But when it came to the post season, it absolutely was a letdown by starting pitching.


Game 1: 2 IP 5 runs allowed (poor start by Happ)
Game 2: 5 IP 1 run allowed (Good start by tanaka)
Game 3: 3 IP 6 runs allowed (Poor start by Severino)
Game 4: 3 IP 3 runs allowed (Shaky start by CC)


You aren't going to go deep in the playoffs when you aren't getting good starts out of your top starters. This isn't to say that we can't get good starts out of the same crew this year, but they certainly didn't show up to shove it during the playoffs. And it was the game 3 blowout that kind of nailed the coffin for the team anyways, because going down in a short series by losing game 3 is always a tall order


Feb 5, 2019 -- 8:57AM, yankoldfan wrote:


In all reality, our pitching wasn't as big of a problem as was our hitting with runners in scoring position and striking out way too often... It's tough to win games when you don't score and especially score early... Pitchers love to pitch with the lead, they hate to have to pitch like if they give up a run early it's all over with.. The last couple of years this team seemed to either be all or nothing, we score a bunch of runs early and we go on and kick butt, but when the offense goes cold, they just can't score at all, one game 8-9 runs and the next 1-2 runs, it's not what makes good teams...





You are welcome to recall my posts when it becomes that i'm proven wrong as long as we judge it on the merits of what we knew to be true at the time it was posted.
8 months ago  ::  Feb 05, 2019 - 3:58PM #19
ArtVandelay
Posts: 34,732

Feb 2, 2019 -- 11:25AM, louisiana_lightning wrote:


I don't think the order matters too much except CC 5th so he can be skipped for extra rest with some off days.  It would be shocking and create drama on the back pages if Severino doesn't pitch opening day.




Order does not matter - if you're good enough to clinch early you can set the order for the playoffs but in the regular season everyone just takes a turn...  seems to me that #1, #2, #3 is just about contracts and status....

8 months ago  ::  Feb 05, 2019 - 5:41PM #20
El Guapo
Posts: 1,063

Feb 5, 2019 -- 3:58PM, ArtVandelay wrote:


Feb 2, 2019 -- 11:25AM, louisiana_lightning wrote:


I don't think the order matters too much except CC 5th so he can be skipped for extra rest with some off days.  It would be shocking and create drama on the back pages if Severino doesn't pitch opening day.




Order does not matter - if you're good enough to clinch early you can set the order for the playoffs but in the regular season everyone just takes a turn...  seems to me that #1, #2, #3 is just about contracts and status....




I completely agree, Art!  I don't think order matters whether it concerns pitching or batting.  I can remember  (I think it was Billy Martin!) drawing names out of a hat for batting order!  It only matters the first time through the batting order/rotation!

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