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MVP question
2 months ago  ::  Sep 17, 2019 - 4:57PM #11
felipe27point5
Posts: 2,645

Sep 17, 2019 -- 12:02AM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 16, 2019 -- 11:15AM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 15, 2019 -- 4:41PM, chl45 wrote:

When do they actually vote for the MVP? The reason I ask is Trout is out for the rest of the season needing season ending surgery on the ball of his foot. He has been out for about a week already. If he misses the next two weeks will that give DJ or Bregman or even Torres time to compile more numbers to get closer to his and maybe swing some voters? Or, have they already voted or will do so in a few days?



After the regular season, but before the playoffs. 


Neither LeMahieu or Torres are anywhere close to compiling numbers ahead of Trout. The only reason they'd get votes over Trout is the narrative. Trout is head and shoulders ahead of them.


Throw WAR out, i don't even care. Trout has an OBP of .435 and an OPS of 1.083. LeMahieu's OPS is almost 200 points lower



With out Trout, the Angels still suck.


Without DJ, we are kissing Boston in the standings.




Statistically speaking... no. 


Boston is 18 games back. Are you honestly going to try and make the argument that LeMahieu has been worth 18 games to the Yankees? 

You are welcome to recall my posts when it becomes that i'm proven wrong as long as we judge it on the merits of what we knew to be true at the time it was posted.
2 months ago  ::  Sep 17, 2019 - 5:34PM #12
Bill
Posts: 349

I don't think anyone should take the wins value in WAR literally. It's very hard to quantify how much a player's production is worth in terms of actual wins, so it's silly to think that the Yankees would be exactly 5.5 games back without DJ. For instance, a player contributing X amount of runs for Houston would be worth more considering their solid pitching staff compared to the same production from a spot in the Yankees lineup when Cortes was on the f-cking mound.

So, to actually try and use WAR as a way to determine a specific teams success with or without a player is just not going to work very well. It IS good to measure relative value among all the players in the league, however. Just don't take the "wins" part of it literally.

2 months ago  ::  Sep 17, 2019 - 5:40PM #13
chl45
Posts: 1,209

Sep 17, 2019 -- 4:57PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 12:02AM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 16, 2019 -- 11:15AM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 15, 2019 -- 4:41PM, chl45 wrote:

When do they actually vote for the MVP? The reason I ask is Trout is out for the rest of the season needing season ending surgery on the ball of his foot. He has been out for about a week already. If he misses the next two weeks will that give DJ or Bregman or even Torres time to compile more numbers to get closer to his and maybe swing some voters? Or, have they already voted or will do so in a few days?



After the regular season, but before the playoffs. 


Neither LeMahieu or Torres are anywhere close to compiling numbers ahead of Trout. The only reason they'd get votes over Trout is the narrative. Trout is head and shoulders ahead of them.


Throw WAR out, i don't even care. Trout has an OBP of .435 and an OPS of 1.083. LeMahieu's OPS is almost 200 points lower



With out Trout, the Angels still suck.


Without DJ, we are kissing Boston in the standings.




Statistically speaking... no. 


Boston is 18 games back. Are you honestly going to try and make the argument that LeMahieu has been worth 18 games to the Yankees? 




Well try and picture this. DJ is not on the Yankees. Everything else remains the same. Same inujuries, at the same times, from day one. So who plays the part of DJ? One guy or two more guys to play three positions and have them all be in a battle for the batting title. Who is it? Who is his replacement?


Statisticians can make stats say anything they  want to prove a point and jumble numbers all day until they come up with something feasable that looks like it is important and eliminate the human contribution to the team. I say without DJ the Yankees are not where they are right now.  Other moves that had to be made, may not have worked out close to what he has done. Nothing says it all would have worked out the same way. 


I just don't buy it. What I do buy is that Baseball has taken the MVP award and have changed it to mean the best player in the game award and still call it the MVP.  Yes that is why Trout will most likely win it. But no one can tell me that Trout means more to his team near last place, than DJ meant to the division winner NY Yankees who have a shot at going to the WS while the Angels will have to buy tickets to see any of it live including the post season games.


It is like saying hey, I helped my team, because I am the best player in the game, to 2nd to last place. Without me they would be in last place. Wow. Really? Also let's not forget they can't get anyone else to help him because they gave him all their money the way it looks to me.

you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
2 months ago  ::  Sep 17, 2019 - 6:10PM #14
felipe27point5
Posts: 2,645

Sep 17, 2019 -- 5:34PM, Bill wrote:


I don't think anyone should take the wins value in WAR literally. It's very hard to quantify how much a player's production is worth in terms of actual wins, so it's silly to think that the Yankees would be exactly 5.5 games back without DJ. For instance, a player contributing X amount of runs for Houston would be worth more considering their solid pitching staff compared to the same production from a spot in the Yankees lineup when Cortes was on the f-cking mound.

So, to actually try and use WAR as a way to determine a specific teams success with or without a player is just not going to work very well. It IS good to measure relative value among all the players in the league, however. Just don't take the "wins" part of it literally.




Actually It's meant to be more or less literally. When you compare something like pythagorean W/L with the difference in lost production of a player's productivity taken off the roster, it's pretty close to interacting.


Whether a 5.2 is closer to 5, or to 6, or there's enough noise to make it a 4 or a 7 - that's up for debate. But you can't go from a 5 to an 18. 


Sure, how many runs were hit when Cortez was on the mound counters the offense by LeMahieu. Over the course of a season that noise figrues itself out. Yeah, we had Cortez, the Astros had Josh James and Framber Valdez. 


When you compare pythagorean W/L with WAR it fits pretty well. If you take Babe Ruth off the roster in a given year, subtract his production from the pythagorean WL and recalculate the numbers, they'd be expected to lose ~About~ Babe Ruth's WAR from their record. This makes sense if you boil down baseball to preventing runs and scoring runs. And of course back then the defensive stats are a total guess at best so run prevention doesn't really factor in as much to that. 


So yeah, there's noise, but you don't go from 5.2 WAR to kissing Boston in the standings instead of 18 games up on them. 

You are welcome to recall my posts when it becomes that i'm proven wrong as long as we judge it on the merits of what we knew to be true at the time it was posted.
2 months ago  ::  Sep 17, 2019 - 6:18PM #15
felipe27point5
Posts: 2,645

Sep 17, 2019 -- 5:40PM, chl45 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 4:57PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 12:02AM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 16, 2019 -- 11:15AM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 15, 2019 -- 4:41PM, chl45 wrote:

When do they actually vote for the MVP? The reason I ask is Trout is out for the rest of the season needing season ending surgery on the ball of his foot. He has been out for about a week already. If he misses the next two weeks will that give DJ or Bregman or even Torres time to compile more numbers to get closer to his and maybe swing some voters? Or, have they already voted or will do so in a few days?



After the regular season, but before the playoffs. 


Neither LeMahieu or Torres are anywhere close to compiling numbers ahead of Trout. The only reason they'd get votes over Trout is the narrative. Trout is head and shoulders ahead of them.


Throw WAR out, i don't even care. Trout has an OBP of .435 and an OPS of 1.083. LeMahieu's OPS is almost 200 points lower



With out Trout, the Angels still suck.


Without DJ, we are kissing Boston in the standings.




Statistically speaking... no. 


Boston is 18 games back. Are you honestly going to try and make the argument that LeMahieu has been worth 18 games to the Yankees? 




Well try and picture this. DJ is not on the Yankees. Everything else remains the same. Same inujuries, at the same times, from day one. So who plays the part of DJ? One guy or two more guys to play three positions and have them all be in a battle for the batting title. Who is it? Who is his replacement?


Statisticians can make stats say anything they  want to prove a point and jumble numbers all day until they come up with something feasable that looks like it is important and eliminate the human contribution to the team. I say without DJ the Yankees are not where they are right now.  Other moves that had to be made, may not have worked out close to what he has done. Nothing says it all would have worked out the same way. 


I just don't buy it. What I do buy is that Baseball has taken the MVP award and have changed it to mean the best player in the game award and still call it the MVP.  Yes that is why Trout will most likely win it. But no one can tell me that Trout means more to his team near last place, than DJ meant to the division winner NY Yankees who have a shot at going to the WS while the Angels will have to buy tickets to see any of it live including the post season games.


It is like saying hey, I helped my team, because I am the best player in the game, to 2nd to last place. Without me they would be in last place. Wow. Really? Also let's not forget they can't get anyone else to help him because they gave him all their money the way it looks to me.




The R in WAR doesn't refer specifically to "Mike Ford replaced Voit, so Voit is 4.2 WAR better than Ford" it refers to a theoretical AAAA type player who provides a net value of 0 over the course of an entire season played. 


If you have an entire team of 0 WAR players they'd be expected to win ~48 games because even the Orioles and Tigers are going to.


More spefically, your question is difficult to answer because DJ IS on the Yankees. If your question was "what would happen if he got injured" statistically speaking we'd have about a 3 or 4 game lead on the Rays.


But if you're asking what would have happened if DJ LeMahieu wasn't on the team to begin with, that $14 million would have been allocated differently and it would have changed the roster construction. Maybe they don't fill his role and it makes it easier to sign Keuchel. Maybe they just pocket that. We have no way of knowing.


Other moves might not have worked out. Other moves might have worked out. If you wanted to quantify that, you could use WAR as a baseline to compare some relative value. And that's all it is... theoretical relative value. Brett Gardner's leadership doesn't show up in WAR, nor does Boone's Savages in the Box. They only show up as ancilliary products of the rest of these stats. Gardner's leadership doesn't show up in batting average or OPS either



For the last time, MLB hasn't done ANYTHING to the MLB award. It's still not their award. It's the BBWAA's award. And yeah, they might have changed the rules. Did you mind when they removed the "you can only win once" stipulation from early versions of it, or is it just now that LeMahieu is up for it that you're bothered?


Were you posting when Arod won it with Texas? 

You are welcome to recall my posts when it becomes that i'm proven wrong as long as we judge it on the merits of what we knew to be true at the time it was posted.
2 months ago  ::  Sep 17, 2019 - 6:23PM #16
felipe27point5
Posts: 2,645

Sep 17, 2019 -- 5:40PM, chl45 wrote:


 Also let's not forget they can't get anyone else to help him because they gave him all their money the way it looks to me.




And Pujols, and Hamilton, and Upton, and Ohtani, and Andreltom Simmons, and Zak Cozart, and Matt Harvey...


Let's pretend they wouldn't have looked any different with a healthy Ohtani taking the mound every 5th day. 

You are welcome to recall my posts when it becomes that i'm proven wrong as long as we judge it on the merits of what we knew to be true at the time it was posted.
2 months ago  ::  Sep 17, 2019 - 7:01PM #17
chl45
Posts: 1,209

Sep 17, 2019 -- 6:23PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 5:40PM, chl45 wrote:


 Also let's not forget they can't get anyone else to help him because they gave him all their money the way it looks to me.




And Pujols, and Hamilton, and Upton, and Ohtani, and Andreltom Simmons, and Zak Cozart, and Matt Harvey...


Let's pretend they wouldn't have looked any different with a healthy Ohtani taking the mound every 5th day. 




I get that. My point is if Trout wasn't there how many guys could they have added to the ones you just mentioned. Even two more all starts instead of one. If those guys are so good and worth their money why are they in 2nd to last place? Pitching? Well maybe two aces instead of Trout would be better. I'm just spitballing here not trying to give you a hard time, it is just to me verses baseball, MVP means two different things.

you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
2 months ago  ::  Sep 17, 2019 - 10:36PM #18
bumper
Posts: 6,712

Sep 17, 2019 -- 7:01PM, chl45 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 6:23PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 5:40PM, chl45 wrote:


 Also let's not forget they can't get anyone else to help him because they gave him all their money the way it looks to me.




And Pujols, and Hamilton, and Upton, and Ohtani, and Andreltom Simmons, and Zak Cozart, and Matt Harvey...


Let's pretend they wouldn't have looked any different with a healthy Ohtani taking the mound every 5th day. 




I get that. My point is if Trout wasn't there how many guys could they have added to the ones you just mentioned. Even two more all starts instead of one. If those guys are so good and worth their money why are they in 2nd to last place? Pitching? Well maybe two aces instead of Trout would be better. I'm just spitballing here not trying to give you a hard time, it is just to me verses baseball, MVP means two different things.




and if trout wasn't there, bregman probably beats DJLM. take off your yankee colored glasses for a minute.


and since there are 30 different voters, MVP doesn't mean 2 different things, it means 30 different things. "valuable" is much more difficult to quantify than best. there's stats for that. personally i think everyone who doesn't vote for DJ should have their vote disallowed ...

2 months ago  ::  Sep 18, 2019 - 10:48AM #19
felipe27point5
Posts: 2,645

Sep 17, 2019 -- 7:01PM, chl45 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 6:23PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 5:40PM, chl45 wrote:


 Also let's not forget they can't get anyone else to help him because they gave him all their money the way it looks to me.




And Pujols, and Hamilton, and Upton, and Ohtani, and Andreltom Simmons, and Zak Cozart, and Matt Harvey...


Let's pretend they wouldn't have looked any different with a healthy Ohtani taking the mound every 5th day. 




I get that. My point is if Trout wasn't there how many guys could they have added to the ones you just mentioned. Even two more all starts instead of one. If those guys are so good and worth their money why are they in 2nd to last place? Pitching? Well maybe two aces instead of Trout would be better. I'm just spitballing here not trying to give you a hard time, it is just to me verses baseball, MVP means two different things.




Sure, just go to the allstar tree and pick a couple off. The problem is sometimes you acquire some allstars (like Simmons, Hamilton, Cozart, etc) and they underperform. Nowhere did i say they're so good and worth the money - that's actually the problem. They AREN'T worth the money


Where are you going to find 2 aces? If you're working from the FA market you can't get 2 aces for the price of Trout. You can barely get 1 ace for that price (Price cost AAV of 31 mill, Trout is 35.5). If you're trading, you're trading prospects, and if you're developing from within you can't be trading those players. 


As far as replacing trout with 2 allstars and being further ahead... statistically speaking no. Trout is consistently an 8-9 or more WAR player, so if you're replacing that with allstars you're basically replacing his production with 2 players who provide similar combined production. You're no further ahead.


It's not you vs baseball, it's you vs the BBWAA. If you want to make an award that's purely based on value to a contending team, you're welcome to do as they did and make up your own award to give out. 

You are welcome to recall my posts when it becomes that i'm proven wrong as long as we judge it on the merits of what we knew to be true at the time it was posted.
2 months ago  ::  Sep 18, 2019 - 11:19AM #20
chl45
Posts: 1,209

Sep 18, 2019 -- 10:48AM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 7:01PM, chl45 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 6:23PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 5:40PM, chl45 wrote:


 Also let's not forget they can't get anyone else to help him because they gave him all their money the way it looks to me.




And Pujols, and Hamilton, and Upton, and Ohtani, and Andreltom Simmons, and Zak Cozart, and Matt Harvey...


Let's pretend they wouldn't have looked any different with a healthy Ohtani taking the mound every 5th day. 




I get that. My point is if Trout wasn't there how many guys could they have added to the ones you just mentioned. Even two more all starts instead of one. If those guys are so good and worth their money why are they in 2nd to last place? Pitching? Well maybe two aces instead of Trout would be better. I'm just spitballing here not trying to give you a hard time, it is just to me verses baseball, MVP means two different things.




Sure, just go to the allstar tree and pick a couple off. The problem is sometimes you acquire some allstars (like Simmons, Hamilton, Cozart, etc) and they underperform. Nowhere did i say they're so good and worth the money - that's actually the problem. They AREN'T worth the money


Where are you going to find 2 aces? If you're working from the FA market you can't get 2 aces for the price of Trout. You can barely get 1 ace for that price (Price cost AAV of 31 mill, Trout is 35.5). If you're trading, you're trading prospects, and if you're developing from within you can't be trading those players. 


As far as replacing trout with 2 allstars and being further ahead... statistically speaking no. Trout is consistently an 8-9 or more WAR player, so if you're replacing that with allstars you're basically replacing his production with 2 players who provide similar combined production. You're no further ahead.


It's not you vs baseball, it's you vs the BBWAA. If you want to make an award that's purely based on value to a contending team, you're welcome to do as they did and make up your own award to give out. 




So the Angels as a franchise are stupid apparently. They are in 2nd to last place with an MVP on their team for the past few years. Can't remember the last time they were relevant and in the World Series. Same with Oakland. All these teams following the new way of putting together lineups, teams, drooling over on base percentage, and WAR,  shifting like they were driving a 20 speed road ranger Semi every game every batter, teams that think strike outs don't matter, Batting averages don't matter, etc. Where are they? Only Oakland has a shot at being in the playoffs but will take an early exit, like they always do.


You know what wins now, IMO, a well balanced team. Steller starting pitching, a solid dependable bull pen, solid defense, a few home run hitters, along with a few contact hitters and  a few guys that get on base. Well balanced. That sounds a lot like the Astro's, and the Yankees in the American league anyway.   Bregman and DJ are on those two teams.


One of those teams may actually win the WS and one of them should definitely be in it. Don't see the Angels or Oakland being in it do you? Point is MVP is baseball saying it is an individual award for the best player in the game and not necessarily on the best team. I say that is wrong. I thought the object of baseball was to win, and go to the WS. To me the guy that has the most influence helping that team get there is an MVP.

you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
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