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MVP question
2 months ago  ::  Sep 19, 2019 - 10:51AM #31
felipe27point5
Posts: 2,645

Sep 18, 2019 -- 4:28PM, chl45 wrote:


My friend, you make some good points but that's not all there is to it just because you say it with conviction. Joba was messed with way to much and that was way before injuries took him. I'll leave you with this. DO you know why I have certain expectations about some players and baseball?  Because I have the experience with the game I have watched for many many years. Experience that allows me to anticipate results. For me it is really only that.


I don't need a computer to tell me what to expect with certain situations that arrive during a season. I will go out on a limb here, and I will say this from experience with the coming Stanton situation. During his time as a Yankee I see he needs time to get going at the plate. he hasn't played the outfield since April or hit live pitching since then. He has not been the Stanton he was before he got here since arriving in the Bronx as it is. He just hasn't. 


His first few weeks as a Yankee he struggled and let the boo's bother him. To his credit he got past that and became a good contributor, though not very consistently. I anticipate the following scenario and result for Stanton based on that experience watching him so far and seeing how long he has been out and how long it takes him to get going and stop striking out so much early upon his return or start to the season.


He will have less of a chance of being productive than productive and if he struggles out of the gate he will not have enough time to recuperate and turn into the Stanton we know. Please know that I will be rooting for him to succeed and hit like a maniac while he tries to get going however in vain it may be. Do you agree with that about Stanton?


If you do then you have the ability in that situation to have the same experience I do to anticipate the results. If you don't see that, then you have not paid attention to watching him and are looking only at the numbers the computer compiled for him, and think he is better than he may actually be coming back from what he is coming back from. Can you now understand some of why I don't live by the analytics and the numbers or when or how how many other factors of others affect the player or game I am talking about.


I think you would see that. But maybe not. You may be a scientist or an engineer or a Tech wizard in which case guys like me and those types will never see eye to eye. One of my in-laws is an engineer and we never agree on anything, but we have a hell of a lot of fun with each other trying to turn each other around to our own way of thinking. Hasn't worked yet in over 40 years.lol.




I have no idea what stanton has to do with anything we've been discussing, but the results on Joba are pretty clear as to the pitcher he was before the injury and the pitcher he was after the injury.


It still doesn't make sense either. There are certain truisms that work today just as they always have. Number 1, don't bring up a young rookie and pitch them until their arm falls off. What's so controversial about that? You want to get them some rest, and you want to manage their workload. Number 2, don't massively increase their workload year to year. Are you aware this also held true for pitchers like Koufax? They didn't bring him up and throw him 200 innings, they gradually increased his workload year to year and it was only after half his career that he reached 200 IP in a season. 


What even were the Joba rules? Essentially it was a day of rest for each IP. What about that would ruin a pitcher? How is that so different than Boone or Girardi being relunctant to use guys consecutive days, and never using them 3 days in a row? 


Actually, if you think about it the "Joba Rules" were really the "Torre Rules" because they didn't want him to blow out his arm like he had with other pitchers. Torre was famous for over using relievers

You are welcome to recall my posts when it becomes that i'm proven wrong as long as we judge it on the merits of what we knew to be true at the time it was posted.
2 months ago  ::  Sep 19, 2019 - 10:10PM #32
davis2
Posts: 17,442

Sep 19, 2019 -- 8:32AM, Balboni wrote:


Sep 18, 2019 -- 11:13PM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 8:00AM, Balboni wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 12:02AM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 16, 2019 -- 11:15AM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 15, 2019 -- 4:41PM, chl45 wrote:

When do they actually vote for the MVP? The reason I ask is Trout is out for the rest of the season needing season ending surgery on the ball of his foot. He has been out for about a week already. If he misses the next two weeks will that give DJ or Bregman or even Torres time to compile more numbers to get closer to his and maybe swing some voters? Or, have they already voted or will do so in a few days?



After the regular season, but before the playoffs. 


Neither LeMahieu or Torres are anywhere close to compiling numbers ahead of Trout. The only reason they'd get votes over Trout is the narrative. Trout is head and shoulders ahead of them.


Throw WAR out, i don't even care. Trout has an OBP of .435 and an OPS of 1.083. LeMahieu's OPS is almost 200 points lower



With out Trout, the Angels still suck.


Without DJ, we are kissing Boston in the standings.




DJ's WAR is 5.5 and the Yankees are 18 games ahead of Boston in the standings. The Yanks easily beat Boston for the division with or without DJ, but they would be probably be several games behind Houston and have to fight Tampa down to the wire with a replacement level player in his place.


DJ has been great and could be an MVP in the post season, but he's not worth 20 plus games of wins over a replacement player, so no we would not be kissing Boston's anything without him.






ok... I think you're wrong. Do you watch games or stat sheets?




That's your best response ? Really ? 


I have been watching and attending Yankee games every year for almost 50 years but I also am interested in baseball stats and modern analytics as they help my understanding and enjoyment of the game.


People have responded to you with stats, the same stats that every team in the league uses to help evaluate players and you come back with nothing to back up your opinion other than I don't agree and a thin skinned response.


So if you think DJL is worth 18-20 wins by himself, how many is Gio worth 15-18 ? How about Judge 10-12 wins ? how about Torres 18-20 ? With that math you are already at 60-70 wins of value not even considering anyone else on the team.


I understand people that just like to watch the games and don't have any interest in diving into the stats, but often those same people around here seem to think they know more than people that look at the stats, the same stats that every teams employs.


I would never base my opinion on a player on just what I see. How do you think the Yankees have been so successfully recently in aquiring players like Volt, Tauchman, Gio, DJL, etc. by using old school scouting methods and modern analytics. You won't be very successful if you only use 1 method.


You also won't be very convincing trying to have a discussion about a players value if you don't both watch the games and try have a basic understanding of baseball stats including modern analytics. And forget about my opinion, I guarantee you no one that works in baseball would agree that DJL has been worth 20 wins alone this season.


So, If you want to have a discussion or debate about DLJ or some other players value, give me some facts or stats or something to back up your opinion.




So your eyes dont tell you anything? Guess your 50 years of fandom didn't teach you much. You cannot explain everything with analytics, but you will insist you can. So I guess we can't get past the language barrier...  Thin skinned? I think not.

2 months ago  ::  Sep 19, 2019 - 11:23PM #33
chl45
Posts: 1,209

Sep 19, 2019 -- 10:10PM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 19, 2019 -- 8:32AM, Balboni wrote:


Sep 18, 2019 -- 11:13PM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 8:00AM, Balboni wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 12:02AM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 16, 2019 -- 11:15AM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 15, 2019 -- 4:41PM, chl45 wrote:

When do they actually vote for the MVP? The reason I ask is Trout is out for the rest of the season needing season ending surgery on the ball of his foot. He has been out for about a week already. If he misses the next two weeks will that give DJ or Bregman or even Torres time to compile more numbers to get closer to his and maybe swing some voters? Or, have they already voted or will do so in a few days?



After the regular season, but before the playoffs. 


Neither LeMahieu or Torres are anywhere close to compiling numbers ahead of Trout. The only reason they'd get votes over Trout is the narrative. Trout is head and shoulders ahead of them.


Throw WAR out, i don't even care. Trout has an OBP of .435 and an OPS of 1.083. LeMahieu's OPS is almost 200 points lower



With out Trout, the Angels still suck.


Without DJ, we are kissing Boston in the standings.




DJ's WAR is 5.5 and the Yankees are 18 games ahead of Boston in the standings. The Yanks easily beat Boston for the division with or without DJ, but they would be probably be several games behind Houston and have to fight Tampa down to the wire with a replacement level player in his place.


DJ has been great and could be an MVP in the post season, but he's not worth 20 plus games of wins over a replacement player, so no we would not be kissing Boston's anything without him.






ok... I think you're wrong. Do you watch games or stat sheets?




That's your best response ? Really ? 


I have been watching and attending Yankee games every year for almost 50 years but I also am interested in baseball stats and modern analytics as they help my understanding and enjoyment of the game.


People have responded to you with stats, the same stats that every team in the league uses to help evaluate players and you come back with nothing to back up your opinion other than I don't agree and a thin skinned response.


So if you think DJL is worth 18-20 wins by himself, how many is Gio worth 15-18 ? How about Judge 10-12 wins ? how about Torres 18-20 ? With that math you are already at 60-70 wins of value not even considering anyone else on the team.


I understand people that just like to watch the games and don't have any interest in diving into the stats, but often those same people around here seem to think they know more than people that look at the stats, the same stats that every teams employs.


I would never base my opinion on a player on just what I see. How do you think the Yankees have been so successfully recently in aquiring players like Volt, Tauchman, Gio, DJL, etc. by using old school scouting methods and modern analytics. You won't be very successful if you only use 1 method.


You also won't be very convincing trying to have a discussion about a players value if you don't both watch the games and try have a basic understanding of baseball stats including modern analytics. And forget about my opinion, I guarantee you no one that works in baseball would agree that DJL has been worth 20 wins alone this season.


So, If you want to have a discussion or debate about DLJ or some other players value, give me some facts or stats or something to back up your opinion.




So your eyes dont tell you anything? Guess your 50 years of fandom didn't teach you much. You cannot explain everything with analytics, but you will insist you can. So I guess we can't get past the language barrier...  Thin skinned? I think not.




Davis, guys that are number guys and guys that are not, will never convince each other of their priority for figuring a players value is the right way to figure it.. It's a waste of time. I see it on here. There are some who use numbers and the eye test and they are usually the ones you can relate to. The all numbers, all the time guys, well they are an exercise in futility.


Try and listen to Brian Kenny of the MLB network, for more than 10 minutes, argue and debate with a non numbers guy including ex managers and scouts and baseball writers,  and in that time you will want to throw him out the window. Numbers guys are all the same to me. Tunnel vision. Not only that they are infatuated with the Stats because they think that numbers will eventually tell the tale they want them to tell. At times I compile a few numbers like OB%, B/A, Power numbers and fielding % and make a determination of that players value to the team, but I do it rarely when I can't figure a new player out in say the first year or two..


To me I am not a numbers guy. Never will be and they can try and sell it to me all day and night and I ain't buying WAR, and all the other over the top nonsense that does nothing for me. What number is telling me how good a player will be on a certain day against a pitcher he never faced or one that is on that day or off. That's why I think its a waste of my time. If a hitter like say Gardner has been hot for a few days he will hit any pitcher on or not, if he never faced him, or not. If he is in the middle of struggling he won't hit water if he fell out of a boat against the worst pitcher on the team he is playing. He is a streak hitter.  Just the way Brett is. I don't need his stats to tell me to start him or sit him. Some will help against a certain pitcher he has success against or not yes. But that is it. If he is not hitting for a spell and facing Verlander his ass is on the bench. If he is hot he is in the line up. I'll take my chances.




you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
2 months ago  ::  Sep 20, 2019 - 1:02AM #34
Balboni
Posts: 260

Sep 19, 2019 -- 10:10PM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 19, 2019 -- 8:32AM, Balboni wrote:


Sep 18, 2019 -- 11:13PM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 8:00AM, Balboni wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 12:02AM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 16, 2019 -- 11:15AM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 15, 2019 -- 4:41PM, chl45 wrote:

When do they actually vote for the MVP? The reason I ask is Trout is out for the rest of the season needing season ending surgery on the ball of his foot. He has been out for about a week already. If he misses the next two weeks will that give DJ or Bregman or even Torres time to compile more numbers to get closer to his and maybe swing some voters? Or, have they already voted or will do so in a few days?



After the regular season, but before the playoffs. 


Neither LeMahieu or Torres are anywhere close to compiling numbers ahead of Trout. The only reason they'd get votes over Trout is the narrative. Trout is head and shoulders ahead of them.


Throw WAR out, i don't even care. Trout has an OBP of .435 and an OPS of 1.083. LeMahieu's OPS is almost 200 points lower



With out Trout, the Angels still suck.


Without DJ, we are kissing Boston in the standings.




DJ's WAR is 5.5 and the Yankees are 18 games ahead of Boston in the standings. The Yanks easily beat Boston for the division with or without DJ, but they would be probably be several games behind Houston and have to fight Tampa down to the wire with a replacement level player in his place.


DJ has been great and could be an MVP in the post season, but he's not worth 20 plus games of wins over a replacement player, so no we would not be kissing Boston's anything without him.






ok... I think you're wrong. Do you watch games or stat sheets?




That's your best response ? Really ? 


I have been watching and attending Yankee games every year for almost 50 years but I also am interested in baseball stats and modern analytics as they help my understanding and enjoyment of the game.


People have responded to you with stats, the same stats that every team in the league uses to help evaluate players and you come back with nothing to back up your opinion other than I don't agree and a thin skinned response.


So if you think DJL is worth 18-20 wins by himself, how many is Gio worth 15-18 ? How about Judge 10-12 wins ? how about Torres 18-20 ? With that math you are already at 60-70 wins of value not even considering anyone else on the team.


I understand people that just like to watch the games and don't have any interest in diving into the stats, but often those same people around here seem to think they know more than people that look at the stats, the same stats that every teams employs.


I would never base my opinion on a player on just what I see. How do you think the Yankees have been so successfully recently in aquiring players like Volt, Tauchman, Gio, DJL, etc. by using old school scouting methods and modern analytics. You won't be very successful if you only use 1 method.


You also won't be very convincing trying to have a discussion about a players value if you don't both watch the games and try have a basic understanding of baseball stats including modern analytics. And forget about my opinion, I guarantee you no one that works in baseball would agree that DJL has been worth 20 wins alone this season.


So, If you want to have a discussion or debate about DLJ or some other players value, give me some facts or stats or something to back up your opinion.




So your eyes dont tell you anything? Guess your 50 years of fandom didn't teach you much. You cannot explain everything with analytics, but you will insist you can. So I guess we can't get past the language barrier...  Thin skinned? I think not.




Having trouble with reading comprehension ? I clearly stated I don't use my eyes or analytics alone nor do teams. Of course my eyes tell me a lot, and of course you can't explain everything with stats. Did you not read what I wrote ? I never insisted analytics will explain everything. Teams still employee scouts to evaulate players and probably always will.


 I don't need just analytics to tell me that DJL is not worth 18-20 games of wins alone. Again if you want to actually have a discussion, come back with some evidence, not just what your eyes see. I wouldn't trust your eyes, you couldn't even read or comprehend what I wrote.


Judging from your responses, my fandon seems to have taught me a lot more than you, your fandom hasn't taught you much if you think DJL is worth 18-20 games worth of wins on his own. And again don't just go by my opinion, go find someone that works in the sport and see if they will agree with you.

2 months ago  ::  Sep 21, 2019 - 11:02PM #35
davis2
Posts: 17,442

Sep 20, 2019 -- 1:02AM, Balboni wrote:


Sep 19, 2019 -- 10:10PM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 19, 2019 -- 8:32AM, Balboni wrote:


Sep 18, 2019 -- 11:13PM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 8:00AM, Balboni wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 12:02AM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 16, 2019 -- 11:15AM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 15, 2019 -- 4:41PM, chl45 wrote:

When do they actually vote for the MVP? The reason I ask is Trout is out for the rest of the season needing season ending surgery on the ball of his foot. He has been out for about a week already. If he misses the next two weeks will that give DJ or Bregman or even Torres time to compile more numbers to get closer to his and maybe swing some voters? Or, have they already voted or will do so in a few days?



After the regular season, but before the playoffs. 


Neither LeMahieu or Torres are anywhere close to compiling numbers ahead of Trout. The only reason they'd get votes over Trout is the narrative. Trout is head and shoulders ahead of them.


Throw WAR out, i don't even care. Trout has an OBP of .435 and an OPS of 1.083. LeMahieu's OPS is almost 200 points lower



With out Trout, the Angels still suck.


Without DJ, we are kissing Boston in the standings.




DJ's WAR is 5.5 and the Yankees are 18 games ahead of Boston in the standings. The Yanks easily beat Boston for the division with or without DJ, but they would be probably be several games behind Houston and have to fight Tampa down to the wire with a replacement level player in his place.


DJ has been great and could be an MVP in the post season, but he's not worth 20 plus games of wins over a replacement player, so no we would not be kissing Boston's anything without him.






ok... I think you're wrong. Do you watch games or stat sheets?




That's your best response ? Really ? 


I have been watching and attending Yankee games every year for almost 50 years but I also am interested in baseball stats and modern analytics as they help my understanding and enjoyment of the game.


People have responded to you with stats, the same stats that every team in the league uses to help evaluate players and you come back with nothing to back up your opinion other than I don't agree and a thin skinned response.


So if you think DJL is worth 18-20 wins by himself, how many is Gio worth 15-18 ? How about Judge 10-12 wins ? how about Torres 18-20 ? With that math you are already at 60-70 wins of value not even considering anyone else on the team.


I understand people that just like to watch the games and don't have any interest in diving into the stats, but often those same people around here seem to think they know more than people that look at the stats, the same stats that every teams employs.


I would never base my opinion on a player on just what I see. How do you think the Yankees have been so successfully recently in aquiring players like Volt, Tauchman, Gio, DJL, etc. by using old school scouting methods and modern analytics. You won't be very successful if you only use 1 method.


You also won't be very convincing trying to have a discussion about a players value if you don't both watch the games and try have a basic understanding of baseball stats including modern analytics. And forget about my opinion, I guarantee you no one that works in baseball would agree that DJL has been worth 20 wins alone this season.


So, If you want to have a discussion or debate about DLJ or some other players value, give me some facts or stats or something to back up your opinion.




So your eyes dont tell you anything? Guess your 50 years of fandom didn't teach you much. You cannot explain everything with analytics, but you will insist you can. So I guess we can't get past the language barrier...  Thin skinned? I think not.




Having trouble with reading comprehension ? I clearly stated I don't use my eyes or analytics alone nor do teams. Of course my eyes tell me a lot, and of course you can't explain everything with stats. Did you not read what I wrote ? I never insisted analytics will explain everything. Teams still employee scouts to evaulate players and probably always will.


 I don't need just analytics to tell me that DJL is not worth 18-20 games of wins alone. Again if you want to actually have a discussion, come back with some evidence, not just what your eyes see. I wouldn't trust your eyes, you couldn't even read or comprehend what I wrote.


Judging from your responses, my fandon seems to have taught me a lot more than you, your fandom hasn't taught you much if you think DJL is worth 18-20 games worth of wins on his own. And again don't just go by my opinion, go find someone that works in the sport and see if they will agree with you.



I don't have problems with reading comprehension. I never said DJ made us 18-20 games better, you did. All of the numbers that have been thrown around were by you. Everything else was made up by you and you tried to put them in my mouth.  I only said DJ makes us a better team, and without him we'd be kissing the sux in the standings. Judging from your responses, you like to make $hit up.

2 months ago  ::  Sep 21, 2019 - 11:15PM #36
davis2
Posts: 17,442

Sep 19, 2019 -- 11:23PM, chl45 wrote:


Sep 19, 2019 -- 10:10PM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 19, 2019 -- 8:32AM, Balboni wrote:


Sep 18, 2019 -- 11:13PM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 8:00AM, Balboni wrote:


Sep 17, 2019 -- 12:02AM, davis2 wrote:


Sep 16, 2019 -- 11:15AM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Sep 15, 2019 -- 4:41PM, chl45 wrote:

When do they actually vote for the MVP? The reason I ask is Trout is out for the rest of the season needing season ending surgery on the ball of his foot. He has been out for about a week already. If he misses the next two weeks will that give DJ or Bregman or even Torres time to compile more numbers to get closer to his and maybe swing some voters? Or, have they already voted or will do so in a few days?



After the regular season, but before the playoffs. 


Neither LeMahieu or Torres are anywhere close to compiling numbers ahead of Trout. The only reason they'd get votes over Trout is the narrative. Trout is head and shoulders ahead of them.


Throw WAR out, i don't even care. Trout has an OBP of .435 and an OPS of 1.083. LeMahieu's OPS is almost 200 points lower



With out Trout, the Angels still suck.


Without DJ, we are kissing Boston in the standings.




DJ's WAR is 5.5 and the Yankees are 18 games ahead of Boston in the standings. The Yanks easily beat Boston for the division with or without DJ, but they would be probably be several games behind Houston and have to fight Tampa down to the wire with a replacement level player in his place.


DJ has been great and could be an MVP in the post season, but he's not worth 20 plus games of wins over a replacement player, so no we would not be kissing Boston's anything without him.






ok... I think you're wrong. Do you watch games or stat sheets?




That's your best response ? Really ? 


I have been watching and attending Yankee games every year for almost 50 years but I also am interested in baseball stats and modern analytics as they help my understanding and enjoyment of the game.


People have responded to you with stats, the same stats that every team in the league uses to help evaluate players and you come back with nothing to back up your opinion other than I don't agree and a thin skinned response.


So if you think DJL is worth 18-20 wins by himself, how many is Gio worth 15-18 ? How about Judge 10-12 wins ? how about Torres 18-20 ? With that math you are already at 60-70 wins of value not even considering anyone else on the team.


I understand people that just like to watch the games and don't have any interest in diving into the stats, but often those same people around here seem to think they know more than people that look at the stats, the same stats that every teams employs.


I would never base my opinion on a player on just what I see. How do you think the Yankees have been so successfully recently in aquiring players like Volt, Tauchman, Gio, DJL, etc. by using old school scouting methods and modern analytics. You won't be very successful if you only use 1 method.


You also won't be very convincing trying to have a discussion about a players value if you don't both watch the games and try have a basic understanding of baseball stats including modern analytics. And forget about my opinion, I guarantee you no one that works in baseball would agree that DJL has been worth 20 wins alone this season.


So, If you want to have a discussion or debate about DLJ or some other players value, give me some facts or stats or something to back up your opinion.




So your eyes dont tell you anything? Guess your 50 years of fandom didn't teach you much. You cannot explain everything with analytics, but you will insist you can. So I guess we can't get past the language barrier...  Thin skinned? I think not.




Davis, guys that are number guys and guys that are not, will never convince each other of their priority for figuring a players value is the right way to figure it.. It's a waste of time. I see it on here. There are some who use numbers and the eye test and they are usually the ones you can relate to. The all numbers, all the time guys, well they are an exercise in futility.


Try and listen to Brian Kenny of the MLB network, for more than 10 minutes, argue and debate with a non numbers guy including ex managers and scouts and baseball writers,  and in that time you will want to throw him out the window. Numbers guys are all the same to me. Tunnel vision. Not only that they are infatuated with the Stats because they think that numbers will eventually tell the tale they want them to tell. At times I compile a few numbers like OB%, B/A, Power numbers and fielding % and make a determination of that players value to the team, but I do it rarely when I can't figure a new player out in say the first year or two..


To me I am not a numbers guy. Never will be and they can try and sell it to me all day and night and I ain't buying WAR, and all the other over the top nonsense that does nothing for me. What number is telling me how good a player will be on a certain day against a pitcher he never faced or one that is on that day or off. That's why I think its a waste of my time. If a hitter like say Gardner has been hot for a few days he will hit any pitcher on or not, if he never faced him, or not. If he is in the middle of struggling he won't hit water if he fell out of a boat against the worst pitcher on the team he is playing. He is a streak hitter.  Just the way Brett is. I don't need his stats to tell me to start him or sit him. Some will help against a certain pitcher he has success against or not yes. But that is it. If he is not hitting for a spell and facing Verlander his ass is on the bench. If he is hot he is in the line up. I'll take my chances.






CKL, numbers do tell a story, but is mainly a compilation story. If we went solely by numbers, the game wouldn't be the same. i like the analytics to tell me some things, but I sure as hell don't need ant bs stats to tell me we are a better team with DJ than without. I have been watching games since 1975, and know what I see. I never had a ton of confidence in the team's ability to win big games last year, but this year...


So far, we have one more win, but they seal the deal much better than last year, and no stat can make me feel better about that. Stats cannot alleviate what you feel in the seat of your pants. I don't care about stats when Chapman has one of his wildish nights where he gets the save but throws more balls than strikes to get the job done. He still scares the hell out of me on those nights... Wish he were more like Mo, LOL!

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