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Happ
2 months ago  ::  Sep 09, 2020 - 9:47AM #1
Rob
Posts: 1,042

Happ pitched quite well last night, arguably one of the best starts by ANY Yankee starter in a very long time.  He now has 6 starts and needs 10 for his 2021 option to vest.  If they keep him on schedule (and he pitches like he did last night) he would start on the 13th, 18th and 23rd giving him 9 total starts.


They play the Marlins on the 27th, the last day of the regular season.  Conundrum.  Assume he pitches well in his next 3 starts and they absolutely need to beat the Marlins on the 27th, would they start him on short rest (by one day) and let his option vest?

2 months ago  ::  Sep 09, 2020 - 10:20AM #2
bumper
Posts: 8,027

yup interesting hypothetical ... most of his haters on this forum won't believe this but he has been our best pitcher during "the great slide of '20".


his ERA over his last 4 starts is 2.59 and he's been averaging 6 innings/start so there's some length as well. tanaka 3.89 ERA. cole 4.76 ERA w 8 HR. monty 8.00 ERA. deivi garcia 3.38 (2 starts). if/when paxton returns, that's our rotation.


gonna qualify my answer ... if he keeps pitching like he's been pitching, it's really difficult. do you not start your "best" because significant money would kick in. i'd be happy to move on because i do think he's on the decline. do they pull a stunt where they use an opener for an inning and then bring him in. if he's performing as he's been, he could really have a beef about contract violation which the yanks could lose and wouldn't play well for the team in dealing w future FA's. think you have to suck it up and pitch him. the only qualifier being short rest ...

2 months ago  ::  Sep 09, 2020 - 11:10AM #3
nyyrocks84
Posts: 368

Sep 9, 2020 -- 9:47AM, Rob wrote:


Happ pitched quite well last night, arguably one of the best starts by ANY Yankee starter in a very long time.  He now has 6 starts and needs 10 for his 2021 option to vest.  If they keep him on schedule (and he pitches like he did last night) he would start on the 13th, 18th and 23rd giving him 9 total starts.


They play the Marlins on the 27th, the last day of the regular season.  Conundrum.  Assume he pitches well in his next 3 starts and they absolutely need to beat the Marlins on the 27th, would they start him on short rest (by one day) and let his option vest?




Happ's stats are almost identical to Tanaka's (he has given up 3 more runs):


www.mlb.com/yankees/stats/pitching/innin...


In other words, he has been a serviceable member of the rotation and should continue to get starts.

2 months ago  ::  Sep 09, 2020 - 1:04PM #4
Rob
Posts: 1,042

Early in the season Happ's performance made it easy for the Yanks to skip him and justify it as solely a baseball decision.  But if he continues to put u at least "quality" starts it will be hard to justify skipping him for a crucial game 60, especially if Cole and Tanaka would be going on even shorter rest.


Still, Baltimore, detroit andf the Yanks are all essentially .500 teams on the season.  But over the alst 3+ weeks both Detroity and baltimore have palyed much better than NY.  If that keeps up game 60 will be a "how soon can we get his over and get out of here" season finale for the Yankees.

2 months ago  ::  Sep 09, 2020 - 1:09PM #5
xnewyorker
Posts: 732

Oh heck to the no.


Don't want to see him in pinstripes in 2021.

2 months ago  ::  Sep 09, 2020 - 1:32PM #6
John
Posts: 206

exactly


I want him out of here 

2 months ago  ::  Sep 09, 2020 - 1:44PM #7
louisiana_lightning
Posts: 19,566

If he is pitching like he has lately I welcome the option year.  If he is pitching poorly he shouldn't get it.  That's not an outragous amount for a middle of the rotation pitcher in 2021.

2 months ago  ::  Sep 09, 2020 - 1:55PM #8
Rob
Posts: 1,042

Sep 9, 2020 -- 1:44PM, louisiana_lightning wrote:


If he is pitching like he has lately I welcome the option year.  If he is pitching poorly he shouldn't get it.  That's not an outragous amount for a middle of the rotation pitcher in 2021.




True, $17 M is about the going rate for a mid rotation starter.  But it is hard to feel confident that the Happ we have seen over the last couple of starts is the guy we will see next year, not teh guy we saw most of 2019 and the start of this year.  Still, if he gets 3 more starts and pitches a quality start in each of them he'll have a good case if he files a grievance over his option not vesting after 9 starts.


By the way, we seem to assume he needs 10 starts or 61 IP, but I think I read that is not yet official, and still to be decided.  Hard to reconcile rooting for Happ to pitch well since it will help the Yankees win but might also bring him back next year.

2 months ago  ::  Sep 09, 2020 - 2:08PM #9
nyyrocks84
Posts: 368

Sep 9, 2020 -- 1:09PM, xnewyorker wrote:


Oh heck to the no.


Don't want to see him in pinstripes in 2021.




I understand....but who is in your rotation for 2021? IMO Cole is the only sure thing:


- Severino will be recovering from TJS, will he be ready for the start of the season? Will his recovery go smoothly?


- Tanaka and Paxton will be FAs. I would assume they re-sign Tanaka but who knows.


- German hasn't pitched since Sept 27, 2019....will he be the same pitcher in 2021?


- Will any of the youngsters (Garcia, Monty, Schmidt, etc.) be capable of matching Happ in terms of durability or effectiveness?


- Any free agent signings/trades that make sense?


So in otherwords, LOTS of uncertainty. I know Happ is crapp half the time, but at least we know we would get 30 starts and a 4.50 ERA. 

2 months ago  ::  Sep 09, 2020 - 3:09PM #10
Rob
Posts: 1,042

hard to count on a 4.50 ERA from Happ.  Don't know what FA starting pitchers will be available but someone commented it isn't a particulalry strong group.  bauer and Stroman might be of interest.  I think the roation will be some combination of Cole, Tanaka, Montomery, Schmidt, German, maybe Garcia with Severino returning in May or June.

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