The Yankees went into yesterday's rubber game versus the Rays just a half game up on Tampa Bay. The Bombers' 88-57 record going in was also 7 games better than Boston's.
That's a 7 game lead. With 17 games to play.
Sound familiar?
Back up three years. Look at the NL East standings from September 12, 2007 and you'll find the exact date when the infamous regular season collapse began for the New York mets at the hands of their division rival Philadelphia Phillies.
The mets were 83-62 after defeating the Atlanta Braves at Shea 4-3. The Phils had just been embarrassed 12-0 at home by Colorado. Philly's record was 76-69, losers of two straight games and six of their last ten. The mets were seemingly in cruise control, division title in sight, and talking playoffs. Jimmy Rollins, the brash shortstop from the Phillies who proclaimed his team the one "to beat" in the NL East before the season began was going to have to eat crow. His squad was left to fight for Wild Card scraps in a pool with five other teams: the Cubs and Brewers (both tied for the NL Central lead at 74-71), Padres (78-66), Dodgers, and Rockies (both 76-69).
The Phillies were, at that point, on the outside looking in.
But from September 13th on, the mets won just five games the rest of the way, finishing the regular season with an 88-74 record. The Phillies? They tore through their remaining schedule, going 13-4 and besting the mets by one game when all was said and done. Colorado was equally incredible. They wound up winning the wild card with a 90-72 record.
The mets, leading the division by 7 games with 17 to play on September 12th, were out.
If you think whatever happened three years ago in Flushing will stay in Flushing because it was the mets and that sort of thing will never happen to the Yankees, you better do so with fingers tightly crossed. These 2010 Yankees right now are headed in waters chartered once by the '07 version of their NL counterpart. Their final destination was not good. The Yanks may end up with a similar fate if they don't right their ship.
The Yanks are just 2-8 over their last 10 games. They were almost swept at home by the Orioles. Only a walk-off homer by Nick Swisher in that series finale saved face. The sweep they avoided in the Bronx caught up to them down in Texas and they just lost two of three, as well as first place in the AL East, to the Tampa Bay Rays.
For weeks after Andy Pettitte went on the DL, the burning issue with the Yankees was their shaky starting pitching after CC Sabathia. After the last ten games, the biggest problem looks to be the Yankee offense more so than the starting pitching. Here is what the Yanks have scored in each of their last eight defeats: 3, 3, 2, 5, 6, 1, 0, 3. Had Swisher's walk-off not happened, the Yanks would have mustered just one run in that game and they would be losers of 9 out of their last 10 games.
The Yankees are a little dinged up. Mark Teixeira has a toe problem and it may be affecting his swing. Swisher and Jorge Posada are now cameo performers rather than regulars because of their ailments. A-Rod may not be at 100% and Jeter, mired in a season long slump, has resorted to acting in order to get on base. The names are there in the lineup. The performance isn't.
A-Rod was asked in the postgame interview about some of the reasons behind last night's loss and he pointed out, among other things, that their situational hitting was lacking. This team can hit. They can put guys on base. It has become a matter of driving those guys home that's become the problem. The first inning last night was a perfect example. They had "Big Game" James Shields on the ropes with two men on and Jeter already in for a 1-0 score. They ended the inning 1-0.
They are simply not doing the job with runners in scoring position.
The surging Red Sox, the team which could be this year's version of the 2007 Phillies, has won four straight games and six of their last nine with scoring outputs of 12, 11, 5, 5, 9, 5 in their most recent victories. 5, 0, 3 in their last three losses. They are scoring runs and as a result...slowly creeping into the playoff picture.
Again, if you think what happened between the mets and Phillies in 2007 was an aberration, go ahead. But the Phillies too were a team that had a potent lineup. Their starting pitching wasn't seen as a strength. They won the division with offensive prowess and gutty, overachieving pitching performances. The BoSox don't really need to overachieve with their pitching the way the Phillies had to in winning 14 of their final 17 games. With a starting rotation of Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Dice-K, the Red Sox have renowned arms to go with their effective bats. All they have to do is pitch true to their form and half their battle is already won. The entire staff pitched to a 2.70 ERA in their recent four game win streak.
The Yanks will be facing the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on September 24 through September 26th. What kind of lead will they have on Boston by then? Will they even be ahead of Boston? David Ortiz and company will be playing at Fenway their next six games. Meanwhile, the Yanks continue this dismal road trip with a visit to Camden Yards against the team that may have started this downward spiral. After that, they return home but face the Tampa Bay Rays yet again. Going 2-4 combined in those two series will make for a very big, crucial series if Boston comes into the Bronx having won 5 out of those 6 home games. That will be 90-62 hosting 87-65. A three game lead but not a comfortable three game lead. The way these two teams are playing right now, a BoSox sweep at The House That George Built is a possibility.
On September 14th through the 16th of 2007 the Phillies, a day after returning fire to the Colorado Rockies with a 12-4 victory while the mets were idle, went into Shea and promptly swept a three game series from their division leading rival. The improbable was on its way to becoming probable. The rest, as they say, is history.
If history bears an omen against the Yankees this year, let's go past 2007 and look at what happened in 1978. How many of you remember "The Boston Massacre"?
