Yankees 2012 Season
The year the Yankees start looking to the future
No doubt you’ve seen the countdown for pitchers and catchers so it really is time to start thinking about the spring, and baseball, and the Yankees Universe.
Last year around this time I introduced for the first time my ++/-- system for evaluating the potential performance of each Yankees player, and then formulating the teams expected cumulative production based on that system. I’ve decided to continue with this system for the 2012 season. Game on!
You’ll have to forgive the thoroughness of this year’s report . . . I’ve had some free time lately.
Batting Line-up
Brett Gardner (-)
No longer a rookie as he enters his 5th MLB season. His 4 year batting averages have been, .228, .270, .277, and last year he hit .259. We’re talking about a career .264 hitter here folks and for all the things he does well, hitting is not one of them. What bothered me the most about Brett this past 2011 season was his declining On Base %; and for a guy whose top talent is speed on the bases, that is very, very bad. But if you breakdown his year, no matter how much you like the speed demon, every category of his season was worse than 2010; Batting average, On Base %, Slugging, he walked 20 LESS times in 2011 than he did in 2010, and he had 19 more plate appearances. Sure he had 2 more stolen bases (49 vs. 47) but my point is that this is what you’re going to get from Brett. Does that make you happy or sad? Our starting left fielder hit 7 home runs last year in 588 plate appearances. Everyone talks about his defense and his speed. Fine, he is fast. But did you know that he committed 5x more errors in 2011 than he did in 2010? No joke. I look at this guy and I want him on 1st base so he can steal second or on second so he can get home on a base hit. That’s about it. I’m not happy with 7 home runs from left field, I’m not happy about .259 batting averages, and I’m not happy about giving this guy the starting job, he is a bench player with a specific skill/talent that we’re trying to roll out there way too often. Recently he’s been awarded a few million dollars … I’m sorry, I’m just not happy. To really hammer home this idea, consider that the league leader in stolen bases for 2011 was the LOWEST leading amount of stolen bases in MLB since 2002 when Soriano stole 41 bases for the Yankees. I mean only 4 times since 1964 has the stolen base leader had less than Gardner’s 49 stolen bases in 2011. Consider that again. Gardner’s MLB best 49 stolen bases rank amongst the worst for that category in the past 50 years; yet we’re all told to be all gaga over him because of WAR and speed. I’m not. I mean the last two guys to lead MLB with less than 50 stolen bases were Soriano in 2002 with 41, who put up an offensive line of .300 BA with 39 friggen home runs. Before that it was Johnny Damon and he had 46 in 2000 and put up an offensive line of .327 BA and 16 home runs. I’m sorry, anyway you cut this, we just gave millions of dollars (not massive millions but still millions) to a pretty fast outfielder who hits about .255 with 5-7 HR’s a year.
Brett’s overall production in 2011 dipped from his 2010 production, but I think his 2011 self is closer to the real Brett. I see his strike outs higher in 2012 and I see his average right around the same. I’m giving Brett a (-) for 2012 and I’m just sad about having to write him in as our everyday left fielder. I think the Yankees can do so much better. I realize not everyone can hit .300, but if you’re going to play left field in Yankee Stadium and you’re going to hit .259, you better crack more than 7 home runs per season (which was a career high and an improvement over his 2010 HR total). End of story.
Derek Jeter (+)
Your guess is as good as mine! I mean really, are we talking about his 2009 year or 2010 year to compare against 2011? How do we look at a 17 season player and compare him against a single year? Derek has earned the right to be evaluated based on his career averages. That works out for him and against him. Last year I gave him ++ and he fully earned that by raising his batting average 27 points, hitting just 6 less RBI’s with 132 less plate appearances, not to mention cracking the ball and driving the ball hard in the second half of the season to the tune of a .338 average. (From July 9 through the end of the season, Jeter batted .338 (90-for-266) with an .843 OPS) Derek finished the season with a .297 average which is still 16 points below his career average, but right in the wheel house of an aging perennial All Star. And that’s really the point with Jeter isn’t it? He is aging and we hate to see it. Well I know Derek is working hard to get his body ready for an 18th MLB season, and until he decides to call it quits, we’ll support the captain. But he is not exempt from the ++/-- system. I’ve thought long and hard about this one and I’m going to give him one (+). I feel his average will be right around .290-.305 and his defense will be exactly what it’s always been. But Derek is focusing on strength this off season at the trainer’s recommendation ( the aim is to help strengthen the core to prevent injury … as is the M/O for older players) and that will equate to some more power and perhaps a few more home runs. Derek hit 6 home runs last year (a career low) and while your first reaction was ‘he was hurt and missed games’, I’m going to have to argue that something else was going on. You see in 2003 Derek missed MORE games than he did in 2011. In 2003 he had 542 plate appearances and 10 home runs. In 2011 he had 607 plate appearances and just 6 home runs. Derek lost power. He had spent the previous off season working on speed and ‘first step’ (after being labeled the worst short stop in the league … statistically).The power will be back in 2011. He worked on strength while he was in Tampa rehabbing last summer and came back driving the ball to all parts of the field. The question will be whether the new strength/power will sacrifice his average. I believe Derek is proud of his career batting average and he will be able to balance the two. I’m expecting 35-36 doubles from Derek this year and that would be a huge plus for this team. I see more doubles, more home runs, and a batting average .290-.305 (right in the wheel house from his career numbers for an aging perennial All Star). I could be wrong, he could be more neutral, but I like believing in DJ, don’t you?
Robinson Cano (-)
After his 7th MLB season, Cano’s numbers are now reliable. People are talking about him in the ALL TIME great second basemen’s conversation and that to me is wonderful. When people start to develop egos about themselves they don’t like to quit. Cano strikes me as a player who has realized his place not only on the Yankees but in Major League Baseball. He is a star, and stars need to shine. Cano is a career .308 hitter and last season he batted .302. I love baseball for the reliability of the stats. Who wants to bet that Cano hits around .303 next year, +/- five to ten points? I watch a lot of Yankees Baseball and I can tell you three things about Cano in 2011. His defense has become excellent, he hits very well in the clutch, and he strikes out way, way too often. Cano struck out more last season than any other season in his career and he did so by a good margin. 96 strike outs last season is not to be overlooked. The previous three seasons his ‘K’ totals were 63,77,65, and in 2010 when he had 77 ‘K’, he had 15 more plate appearances. Folks, 96 ‘K’s is too much. If you go to the list of Strike Out leaders and see where Cano’s name is and what names surround him, you realize what I’m talking about. He should be striking out 83 times max for hitting 25-29 home runs. Besides, he has built up so much respect that he should be focused on only swinging at good pitches and taking his walks. This season should be the year of the Cano On Base %, but I worry. This season will live and die with Tex and A-rod hitting, not with Cano chasing bad pitches to get his hits. Cano has a career average of 22 home runs per season, 44 doubles per season, yet he produced 28 home runs and 46 doubles in 2011. I really think he’ll struggle to leave the bat on his shoulder and will struggle to produce his 2011 line. I’m reluctant, but I’m giving Cano (-) and I hope I’m wrong. I think his defense was incredible in 2011 and I believe we’ll see that continue. I just think that after his 3rd truly great season, it’s going to be enormously hard for Cano to be better in 2012. I do think he can hit above his 2011 average of .303, bit he’s just not going to get as many pitches to hit anymore and he has to be willing to walk a lot more. This is a guy who had 681 plate appearances in 2011 and he walked 38 times. I mean that is awful, horribly awful. Posada walked 39 times with 387 plate appearances. Cano had the fewest walks on the team by a starter. Just to give you an idea of what I’m talking about, Swisher and Granderson had 95 and 85 walks respectively. I know Cano is not a Swisher at the plate but 38 is silly low. I need to see Cano have the ability to draw 50 walks a year to believe that he can develop the patience that a truly respected and dangerous hitter needs to incorporate into their offensive approach. I hate giving Cano a (-) but I think he has a harder year in 2012, perhaps at the expense of an improved year for Teixeira and A-rod. Cano is good, very good, but in order to be great going forward, he’s going to have to adjust and adapt his plate approach on the back of the respect he has earned over the past few years and walk to first base when the pitches are not in the zone.
A-Rod (+)
Every year I look at this guy, I look at his career numbers, and I begin to believe that this is the year his production reverts to the mean of his career. I’m ready to admit that the career averages of A-rod will not be seen again. But the difference between what we’ve seen the last few years and what those career numbers are, happen to be so far apart that I find myself once again forced to believe his 2012 campaign will be stronger than his 2011. A-rod is always a bit hard to breakdown vs. his previous season with his recent injuries, presence/absence of steroids, but instead of comparing his 2011 year to his 2010 year (which was awful), I’d rather compare it to his 2009 year when the Yankees won the World Series and A-rod actually contributed to that. He hit .286 in 2009, but he only had 17 doubles in 535 plate appearances. In 2011 he had 21 doubles in just 428 plate appearances. He hit .305 with runners in scoring position. He hit .400 with a man on second base. In games that were tied he hit .309. He drove the ball (when he was playing), and his average wasn’t that far from what we should expect going forward each year (.275-.285). However, I watch a lot of Yankees baseball and I saw Tex strike out, I saw no respect for A-rod behind him because his HR power vanished. I think Girardi has some options this year with the lineup. Cano, Tex, A-rod, and Grandy are all legit power/RBI threats and where you put them in the lineup shouldn’t matter. Who do you want to protect the most? I don’t think even Girardi at this point knows which way he’ll go but I bet he is inclined to change up the Tex 3rd/Arod 4th combination. It hasn’t been working very well. Who will hit more home runs in 2012, Arod or Tex? I say Tex and that means Arod with his higher batting average and on base % should be batting in front of Tex. Girardi pulled this move last September ahead of the playoffs dropping Teixeira to 5th moving Cano to the 3rd spot. A-rod now has this German medical thing going for him, or against him, he sure knows how to grab attention. A-rod has the potential to have a (++) season, but I can only give him a (+) because I really don’t like believing in him, even if I always do believe he is about to have a good season. But I firmly believe he will hit for a higher average, HR total, and RBI total (adjusted for games played) than he did in 2012 over his 2011 year.
Mark Teixeira (+)
Guess what these numbers are: .306, .308, .283, .292, .256, .248 ! They are Teixeira’s last 6 season batting averages. The shift is killing him (read about it here to give you the stats and story. www.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/sports/baseba...
Now we know that he’s going into spring training with an eye on trying a Jeterian swing (inside out) to launch the ball to left field. My first instinct when hearing this was that the approach is going to destroy/sap his power stroke to the short porch. Sure he may raise his batting average, but how many HR’s will he lose and thus RBI’s by not hitting the long ball? I took a really long look at this because I believe that Teixeira holds the key to the 2012 season. He hit 39 home runs in 2011, a very nice total and right up to his maximum potential. He is a career 37 HR a season guy. What I was interested in was home many HR’s he hit batting lefty and how many RBI’s that produced. What I can tell you for certain is that he hit .221 vs. lefties in 2011.Girardi’s response to that was to move him down in the lineup vs. lefties in September. I was a little surprised to see how balanced his home run hitting was, not allowing that many conclusions to be drawn from it. He pulls the ball from both sides of the plate, naturally a few more from the left handed side while at Yankee Stadium, but not terribly so. Now I’m not immune to the allure of the short porch. The fact is in 2009 Teixeira hit 39 home runs (same as in 2011) and 30 of them came from the left handed hitting side. So it’s not like he is going to abandon that side of the plate, but at least let us make pitchers pay more for those blasts. Tex is moving down in the lineup for good. If he is going to be a pure RBI threat, then fine. I prefer to have more people on the bases, thereby making the shift that much more difficult to employ. I believe Girardi is going to get smart with Teixeira and I see it paying off. I don’t see Teixeira hitting .285 again, but I do think his days at .250 are over with. I’d be thrilled with Tex hitting .273 with 33 home runs and that’s exactly what I think we’re going to get from him. I think he’ll have the same number of RBI’s, and I think he will score more runs because he’ll be on base more. He will add more value to the team in the 5 or 6 hole and he might just reinvent the joy of driving the ball in the gap vs. the long ball. I’m excited for Teixeira this year, I think he’s going to have a lot of fun playing baseball in 2012. I’d love to give him (++), but I think a lot of the things he will improve upon will be added value to the stats of other players. I think he’ll become a much more potent player next October by being a higher average hitter in the middle of the line-up. Tex gets (+) from me this year, but that one (+) is going to do a lot more than it appears.
“I’m all for it,” Teixeira said of the change. “I think it’s a great idea. I may have more opportunities to drive in runs from the five-hole, which is great. That’s what I pride myself on every year, a guy that drives in runs. This might be the start of something permanent where I have more opportunities.” – Mark Teixeira
Swisher (+)
Last year I gave Swish a (-) because his batting average in 2010 was .288, a huge deviation from his career number. He had back to back 29 HR seasons and his career HR average was less. I did believe that it being a potential ‘option pick up’ year for him that he would do something good to earn it and I was a little disappointed with him in 2011. He hit just 23 home runs, 3 less doubles, 3 less triples, and 4 less RBI’s. I felt bad for him in 2011 as well because the team let him down. He made all sorts of adjustments in 2011 to compensate for his lower production numbers. His on base % increased from 2010, which is hard to do. He went from .359 in 2010 to .374 in 2011. When your average drops 28 points and your on base % increases, you are making very difficult adjustments and your patience is delivering base runners for the team. Swisher walked 37 more times in 2011 than he did in 2010. If you consider that Cano only walked 38 times all year you can see what an incredible performance of plate discipline Swisher had in 2011. I can’t imagine that he can produce 95 walks in 2012, but I also believe his average will be above .265 and that he will hit more HR’s than 23. I think Girardi should move him to the #2 spot. I think it will give the meat of the order the chance to see a few more pitches and I think you can’t ignore that On Base %. Having that on base % at the back of the lineup is a crime. I’m not sure if Girardi is going to be smart enough to make this move, but I hope he is. Either way Swish should have a better year in 2012 than he did in 2011. There are no more options for him so this is a truly Walk Year for him, he becomes a free agent at the end of the 2012 season. Want to bet against the free agent to be? History says that would be unwise. I’m expecting Swish to hit .268 with 25 HR, 31 doubles, 88 RBI’s, all of which would be an improvement over his 2011 line. Whether he hits behind Jeter or in front of whoever DH’s is the big issue. I hope it is behind Jeter, its where his value is highest.
Curtis Granderson (-)
This was the easiest decision to make. Grandy had a career year in 2011. It is true that his lower than ideal batting average (.262) kept him from being a true AL MVP, (Verlander’s performance aside). My problem with the Grandy Man is that I don’t think he CAN reproduce 41 HR’s again even if he just did it. How many players reproduce that kind of HR production? His career HR average is 28 per season. In 6 full MLB seasons he’s hit 30 once, and last year’s 41. All the other years were in the 19-24 range. He sure had a fun season in 2011 but I think he can still have fun, be productive, and put up a less valuable offensive line. I can see him hitting 27 home runs, with a slightly better batting average (.266-.273). Granderson struck out 169 times in 2011 which is a lot. But if you smack 41 hr’s that can be forgotten fast. I worry that Granderson will not hit that many home runs, but will still be prone to the swing and miss style of baseball he found success with in 2011. His first full MLB season with the Tigers was in 2006. He hit 19 home runs, batted .260, and struck out 174 times. I think he will perform better than that, Yankee Stadium will help his home run total and his experience will obviously help as well. But I think the real Curtis Granderson is someone closer to his 2006 self than his 2011 self. How I would love to be wrong on this. I love the way he plays/talks. He covers the outfield great, he has some speed on the bases, and he is an awesome spokesman/locker room guy. I just think his 2012 campaign will be about finding out that his power totals of 2011 were an anomaly. Keep in mind he only had 26 doubles, he is capable of 33+ and we might see more doubles from him in 2012. So while I see his HR totals falling, he may be creating some havoc on the base paths. He’s going to get some respect at the plate this year so he, just like Cano, will have to be prepared to walk. His 85 walks in 2011 suggest he has that discipline which means he is going to be stealing bases and scoring runs. He had 25 stolen bases last season and I think he is a legit threat for 30 in 2012. Granderson will be a great team mate and productive player, but his 41 HR’s and talk of League MVP will stay in 2011. One (-) for him, but it’s really rather neutral.
Russell Martin (+)
Russell just completed his 6th MLB season (although he was injured in 2010 for a while). His batting average is tough to ignore. The last three seasons it’s gone from .250, to .248, to .237. His strike out totals are ok, his walks are ok, he is just a very average offensive producing catcher. He doesn’t really excite me and I think we’ll see a lot of different names behind the plate in 2012. Romine will get some time in, going back and forth to AAA, and Cerveli will get some time in. Cerveli is a good back up but its Romine that the Yankees are focused on for the future (he’s 23). It’s the Yankees plan to have Martin catch about 120 games. Girardi is going to have to be clever to get the most out of him. He hit .260 at home last season and .217 on the road. He hit .259 post All Star Break and .220 pre. But the most startling number for Martin is that in games the Yankees won he hit .267 vs. games the Yankees lost where he hit .197. I wouldn’t be that bothered if this were Jeter or A-rod or an RBI producer. But Martin struck me as the least ‘producing’ man in the line-up. I was surprised to see that gap. I think he can do better than .237 batting average on the season and I look for him to be closer to .255 this year. He may not crack 18 home runs this year, but I can see a few more doubles than his 17 in 2011, a higher batting average, a few more stolen bases than his 8 in 2011, and a lot more runs scored than his 57 total in 2011. Martin is another neutral for me, but given that I expect his average to rise and his run total to increase and be a part of the Yankees havoc on the bases, I gave him one (+). I might have to introduce a neutral rating next year for guys like this who are starters but nearly platoon. He will be pinch hit for late in the games as such. Oh one more thing, he is a free agent at the end of the year, so he’s got that to motivate himself. Anytime I see a MLB player who is under 30 years old hitting .238, I think the upside is much higher than the downside. Russell is a career .267 hitter and the chances of him hitting .267 (29 points above his 2011 average) are incredibly higher than him hitting .209 (29 points below his career average). It’s possible even that he has a career year with the Yankees and from his 2011 average of .238, he has one of the greatest chances on the team of putting up a ++ year much like Swisher did in 2010, and Granderson did in 2011.
Conclusion
I count 3 (-) for the Yankees lineup; Gardner, Cano, and Granderson. My 5 (+) are Jeter, Arod, Teixeira, Swisher, and Martin. I expect averages to be up and strike outs down. I expect our key RBI men to return to form driving in runs with higher averages and if Girardi can put Swisher towards the top of the line up, I see Arod and Tex driving in more runs than they did last year (A-rod injury withstanding). I also think Martin will produce more with guys on base more often. Bottom line is this lineup is going to be better in 2012 than it was in 2011 just by moving a few people around here and there in the lineup.
Kassel’s Ideal Yankee Lineup
Thought you might be interested in some career on base percentages. And what I think the lineup should look like with those %’s in mind.
Jeter .383
Swisher .368 (with Yankees) .374 last year
Arod .386
Cano .347 – but highest batting average on the team with power
Grandy .345
Tex . .373 – but just .341 last year – he has to bring this up to move back up
Jones .356 last year
Martin .359
Gardner .353
I believe we give the guys with the highest average more at bats, and the guys with the highest on base % hitting in front of the guys most likely to drive them in. Having said that, I’m not 100% sure Girardi has the audacity to put Grandy 5th and Tex 6th (but that is where they belong on this team).
Pitching Staff
CC (-)
I hate, absolutely hate giving CC this mark. His work as a Yankee has been so consistent that his 2012 campaign won’t be that far off his 3 year Yankee production. The reason I’m giving him a (-) is because his ERA can’t go much lower. His 2011 ERA of 3.00 is about the best he can do. He was able to do that by striking out 230 batters vs. his previous strike out totals of 197 strike outs in both 2009 and 2010. I think CC will pitch back to a 3.30 ERA, with strike outs back to 200. If he can do that, which I think he will, he will still get his 19-20 wins on a Yankees team that will produce more run support in 2012 than they did in 2011. He may not go quite as deep into games as he has in the past year or two, especially with the Yankees remarried to him long term. There is a vested interest in protecting that arm and with the depth of the Yankee bullpen, I think we’ll see CC complete games and go beyond the 7th less and less.
AJ (++)
He is the only player on the Yankees who is getting (++), which is a pretty remarkable thing because he is the one guy that nobody expects much, if anything from. Now before you totally discredit me and this report because of that statement and its initial absurdness, please hear me out. Most people would like to dump him and his contract. Thanks for the 2009 pies, nice win vs. the Phillies, please exit the stage now sir. But I have another story for you. He is a career 4.10 ERA pitcher and his 2011 (much like his 2010) was bad, a full run over his career stats. The first half of 2011 he was 8-7 with a 4.15 ERA. It was his second half that blew up that bothered us all. In April/March he was 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA. In Sept he went 2-0 with a 4.3 ERA. He blew up in the middle of the summer. But consider this, there were 4 games he pitched in that he got zero run support. There were another 5 games that he got 3 runs in support. When the Yankees gave him 6 or more runs he was 5-1. AJ is not a lights out pitcher, even if he has lights out stuff for that random one off game each year. He needs runs and like Cone of years past and Mussina of years later, AJ seems to be the one pitcher who gets very little run support yet needs it so much. To highlight what I’m trying to say, consider the season Nova just had at 16-4. Guess how many games he got zero run support? Not one. He had one game where the Yankees scored one run for him and he lost that game. If you were to add 4 wins to AJ with some run support and he finished the season at 15 wins I think we’d have a different feel for him. Half of pitching is luck with regards to run support. In 2010 Phil Hughes won 18 games in his 2010 break out season. But did you know that an astounding 14 of those games he was given 6 or more runs in support, which was a Yankees record for run support. These things get lost in the noise but they are critical to pitchers numbers and how they approach hitters. When Hughes was given 3-5 runs in support that season he had a losing record. Listen, I’m not telling you AJ is reliable or that he is anything what we had hoped he would be (certainly for the price) but I am telling you that his 2012 year will be better than his 2011 year, and the potential for improvement is so great that he gets (++) for it. I believe he will get more run support and I believe he is better prepared for adversity than ever before. I wouldn’t be surprised if he throws a really solid year. I’m actually looking for 15 wins from him and an ERA of 4.35. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitching harder, I think he is angry, and I think he is competitive enough to want to prove something. I’m going to enjoy watching him pitch all season because he is going to be the wild card this year (good). Now if you still totally disagree with me, consider this. If Cashman can find a way to trade him, our team improves. Our team improves because we likely got a BAT, or it improves because we removed a problem from our pitching rotation. Either way, if Cashman trades AJ, the team improves. If he stays and is a back end guy, he’s got the potential to be the best back end pitcher in MLB. My ++ for him is a layup, even if you don’t trust or like him one bit. He is either a #4 starter or off the team. In both situations he makes us better. For the record, I strongly believe he will be traded before Spring Training.
Ivan Nova (-)
16-4 record without anything really nasty in the arsenal. I mean it can be done I guess, but I think it’s hard to keep that up year after year. He pitched in 28 games in 2011 and had an ERA of 3.70. That is sure good enough to get another season of starts. I watched him pitch a lot and while I was constantly impressed with his composure, I was never blown away with his stuff. His ERA on the road was 3.26 and his ERA at home was 4.11. I would expect to see Nova pitching a lot of away games in 2012 and that’s harder to do considering the Yankees have a great win/loss % at home. In 2011 he pitched exactly the same amount of games on the road as he did at home. I don’t expect him to win 16 games in 2012, and I don’t expect his ERA to be at or below 3.70. This is a young kid who mentally has what it takes. I just need to see him develop a bit more before I can feel confidence in his ability to reproduce sub 3.85 ERA’s year after year. If I’m right and he pitches on the road more than at home in 2012, I think Nova will get about 12 wins, be over .500 and pitch to a 4.05 ERA. For a second year pitcher that would still be pretty decent given the situation and the AL East. He gets one (-) and while his 2012 campaign will fall short of his 2011 campaign, for Nova it’s about building a career and a strong performance on the road in 2012 will contribute to his development as a budding talented pitcher in MLB.
Phil Hughes (+)
I don’t think we can really be too high on Phil until we see him pitching 93-95 mph again. He was able to throw a fast ball 95 mph prior to 2011 and that made his curve ball devastating, not the other way around as is the case with most pitchers. He went 5-5 with a 5.79 ERA in 2011 and confidence in him waned fast. He was sent down to work on his ‘dead arm’ and when he came back he had a little more arm strength but we didn’t get a long enough look to have a great deal of confidence in him. In his 5 victories in 2011, each one came at the blessing of the Yankees offense which gave him 6+ runs in each of his 5 victories. In all the other games he pitched in, the Yankees either gave him 3-5 runs in support or 1-2. It doesn’t matter because the outcomes of all of them were the same, he lost. So he needed 6-9 runs in support to ever win a game in 2011. I realize he won 18 games the previous year but I mentioned earlier that 14 of those games came at 6+ runs in support for him. If Phil Hughes is going to be successful in MLB he’s going to have to find a way to win some games with 2-5 runs in support. CC Sabathia found a way to go 7-2 with a 3.15 ERA in games where he got 2-5 runs in support. Hughes may not find 7-2 success but he has to find a winning record. His 2011 was so awful that he merits a (+), but don’t expect that to revert in any way to his 2010 production. We’ll see how Hughes shows up to camp this year. Will he be fat and unmotivated or will he be slimmed down and throwing flame? It’s a question mark and I guess the answer will be somewhere in between, which will still be an improvement over his awful 2011. The Yankees currently have quite a log jam in pitching, a nice problem to have but still a problem. Hughes is one of the few with a history of success in the bullpen. His 2012 performance is going to be MORE about how the other guys pitch in the starting rotation than how he does.
Freddy Garcia (+)
I remember years ago trying to come up with ways that the Yankees could trade for him. He is entering his 14th MLB season that is littered with injuries every few years. He’s coming off 2 straight seasons of 12 victories. He went 12-8 this past year with a 3.68 ERA, not bad. I dug deeper into Garcia’s year and found that his performance in the 2-5 run support category was quite good. He went 6-3 with a 2.72 ERA in those games. That is what I’m talking about with Hughes, you have to be able to do this to be a winning pitcher in MLB, and Garcia has it. The more and more I look at his numbers in 2011 the better they look. I mean the first two games he pitched the Yankees never scored a run for him. He lost three more games where the Yankees scored just one run, and another game he lost late in the season where the Yankees gave him another goose egg for run support. I see Freddy winning 14 games in 2012, although his ERA may creep back up towards 4.00 (his historical career average). I think he will provide the Yankees with the depth they’re going to need at the back end of the rotation. He was 8-4 at home and 4-4 on the road. Expect to see Freddy in the pinstripes in 2012 more so than in the grey road uniform. He has me a little nervous for sure on the injury front. He’s 36-37 officially; who knows for real considering he was born in Venezuela in the 1970’s where record keeping was an art not a science. But something tells me he’s going to get more run support in 2012, he’s a bit more comfortable in pinstripes and I think he’s fired up to pitch again. I don’t think he’ll make or break the Yankees in 2012 and that will alleviate pressure on him.
THE TRADE
It is time to address the Yankees big trade in the offseason. First let me say that I like it. I like it because it deals with the here and the now very well with an eye to tomorrow. To deliver this sentiment I’d like to share with you words directly from Brian Cashman that a family friend was recently told. Brian told him that the Yankees made the trade they did because they didn’t want to end up like the Knicks, waiting a year or two for the ‘big trade’ or ‘big free agent’ and then miss on that and be forced to look back on the past year or two wondering how they screwed up so badly. The Yankees made that mistake to some degree last off season when they thought for sure they would get Cliff Lee because they were dead set on spending the most money on him. As it turned out, Lee just didn’t want to pitch for the Yankees. Things worked out OK for the Yankees, with the help of Colon, Garcia, and Nova even if they got bounced in the first round. Most people didn’t have the Yankees making the post season to start to the 2011 season, let alone have the best record in the American League. Things could have materialized MUCH worse in 2011 and Cashman got a bit lucky and he knows it. The Yankees have a vision and having CC, Pineda, Banuelos, Betances, Nova/Hughes as their starters for a few years is an awesome group of young pitchers with the big guy leading the way. Of course it won’t work out that way, Hughes or Nova or both will be traded at one point for something. The bottom line with the trade is that Montero can’t play a position, and the Yankees won’t be able to give him the number of at bats to justify passing up on a front line starter. Do I think Montero is good, yes I do. Do I think he will be a force at the plate in years to come, yes I do. But on the Yankees for the next 3-4 years, there just isn’t room for him, its bad timing. We all knew he would likely be traded for a starter, but we kind of were disappointed at first glance that we weren’t able to nab King Felix or some other already established star. I think having Pineda for 5 protected cheap years is going to be invaluable as Mariano, Jeter, Tex, and Swisher all depart in the coming 1-4 years and the Yankees will need to replace at least some of them with proven stars. Pineda throws hard, he is a BIG guy, and I think he’s going to thrive in the limelight. There has been a lot of talk about whether he can learn to throw a change up and how that will set up his fastball or be his out pitch. Whatever . . . we’re talking about a guy who heats up to 97-98, is 23 years old, and his pitches have late movement. When I was breaking down his stats and plugging them in, I discovered something that told me something about Pineda that I already kind of knew but was confirmed. When he faces the first batter of an inning, his stats are insane. First batters in innings 2-9 hit just .186 off him. To give you an idea of how sick that is consider that CC gets hit to a .235 average (which was an improvement off his 2010 stat of .300, and even his sick 2009 stat was .249). My point is that Pineda attacks batters and when he heats up they just can’t catch up. Cliff Lee’s stat is .250, and Halladay’s is .317. If you say that Mariano Rivera shortens games, then you can say Pineda shortens innings. The Yankees are going to like that very much in 2012. The ceiling on this guy is very, very high. It might be tough the first time Montero goes yard on the Yankees, but the American League just got harder this year with the additions of Pujols in California and Fielder in Detroit. Having an arm like Pineda to follow CC is going to be really nice.
Bullpen
Mariano Rivera (-)
42 years young, entering his 18th MLB season! Mo had 44 saves last year, which is the 4th best mark in his career. He had a 1.91 ERA which is so incredible that I don’t think there will ever be anyone for a hundred years that comes close to being Mo like. But I just can’t imagine him doing this again. Having 44 saves by itself is hard to do, having an ERA of 1.91 and 44 saves, that’s just Mo like, and not even Mo can do that year after year. DOH! He can and he has! But to match his 2011 performance he would have to do so many things that are off the charts. In 2011 he walked only 8 guys, which is the second best mark in his career. I mean hits, runs, HR, nearly every statistical department Mo had as good of a year as he’s ever had. I think he will be the first Unanimous first ballot Hall of Famer. But first let’s focus on 2012. I’m not going to turn this into a Good Bye Mo bio so let’s get right to it. I just don’t think he’s going to reproduce his 2011 line. I do think he has 38-40 saves, I do think is ERA will be around 2.00-2.25, and I do think he will be the Mo that we know and love. I just don’t think at 42-43 he can keep up the fastball enough and father time will start to bite in 2012. I also think he will see less action in 2012. Our bullpen is strong and deep and if my forecast of Yankee run production (based off increased batting averages) is correct, Mo will have fewer games to save. Mariano got a (-) from me because I found it almost statistically impossible to give him a (+). Every single time he struts to the mound this year should be cherished, it might well be his last year.
David Robertson (-)
This was easy. I mean it’s not his fault, he just had the most amazing year of any relief pitcher that I can find in history. He had a 4-0 record, pitched in a career high 70 games and 66 innings, he gave up 1 homerun, 35 walks, 100 strike outs, and pitched to a 1.08 ERA. I mean c’mon, are you going to suggest he can outperform that year? No way, no how, not even Mariano can do that. Mo never had an ERA like that, never. Mo’s best ERA (granted as a closer) was a 1.38 in 2005. Mo’s set up year in that wonderful 1996 year he had an ERA of 2.09 and he was considered lights out then. What David Robertson accomplished in 2011 might actually never be topped, and certainly won’t be topped by him in 2012. Sorry David, but even if you blow up a full run in 2012 you’ll have an awesome year and still be ‘Mo like’.
Soriano (+)
His ‘stuff’ and his numbers fell into a hole in his first year in pinstripes. His 2010 numbers of 3-2, 1.73 ERA, with 45 saves was what got him that absurd relief contract. The thinking was that if Mo went down we’d be in serious trouble. The idea was that having Soriano would help shorten games for a weak pitching staff behind CC. The logic was sound but things never play out that way. Garcia was durable and Robertson emerged as the reliable go to guy both leading up to Mo and as his immediate replacement had Mo been hurt. Now looking to 2012, Soriano’s numbers in 2011 set him up nicely to have a bounce back year. For the record, his 2011 line was 2-3 with a 4.12 ERA. In the past 6 years, (2011 withstanding) Soriano has never posted an ERA worse than 3.00, which is significant. You have to ask yourself is this guy going to produce his 2011 line, or his line he produced the 5 previous years before joining the Yankees. I really have no idea and I’m not a big fan of his, but for him to produce less in 2012 than he did in 2011 seems almost hard to do. He has a career ERA of 2.86 and even if he doesn’t match that career average, the gap between that and his 2011 line gives me the confidence to project his contribution to, at the very least, lie somewhere in between and that would be an improvement from 2011. He actually has the potential to be one of the few (++) contributors on the team but one (+) is really a fair projection. And just some added info here, he sucked at Yankee Stadium last year. He split his time Home vs. Away pretty evenly and his Home ERA was 5.48 vs. his Away ERA of 2.50. He also had a really good track record in the AL East vs. AL Central/West. AL East teams had low batting averages against him, Boston - .059, with a 0.00 ERA in 6 games. Blue Jays -.154, with a 1.23 ERA in 8 games. The Orioles .250 with a 1.69 ERA in 6 games. Tampa -.250 batting average in just 2 games. His batting averages against him with Texas and the White Sox and Oakland were .400 and .333, and .500 respectively. I think he can do better with those blow ups against the Central/West in 2012. Most of those outings took place early in the season when he wasn’t 100% healthy. Either way, I expect to see Soriano pitching a lot with the road jersey on (I know Girardi’s baseball model will find his home vs. away ERA difference).
Joba (--)
Tommy John! Those two words are killers. How often does a pitcher come back from Tommy John surgery and end up putting up good numbers for a long time, not often at all. I’ve seen the list of Tommy John surgery pitchers and it’s a sad tale. I’m often reminded that Mariano Rivera had it in 1992 (but the truth is he never actually had the ligament replaced…can’t compare). Most of the time the surgery falls on starters 10-12 years into their career and they end up having one at most good season before heading to the bullpen for the last few years of pitching (weaker than before). The surgical process has been getting better and better, but pitching is a very unnatural act, when the body needs ligaments replaced it’s just not going to be a good marriage with pitching in MLB. Most of the time it’s not a good marriage in the short term and almost always it’s not a good marriage in the long term. Pitchers that have had more success after Tommy John are curve ball pitchers. Nevertheless, it is possible that Joba comes back by June and provides some innings in relief but I’m not expecting a thing from him and he is my only (--) on the team this year. Joba was 2-0, with a 2.83 ERA in 2011 before falling to injury. In the 29 innings he pitched in 2011 that was just about the best he’s done in MLB thus far in his career. His 2011 stats were even better when you look at his game logs and see that in 11 of his 29 innings he never even gave up a hit. I think Soriano will pick up this slack in 2012 but there is no question about it, Joba was having a good year until he got hurt. Overall Joba has been a pretty huge disappointment but the whole 2011 injury was icing on that sour cake. We have to downgrade our long term expectations for him, big time.
What about Boston/Tampa, Toronto, Baltimore?
An awfully quiet off season for the AL East so far has made this analysis rather easy. Nobody really lost anybody (except the Red Sox who lost Papelbon) and nobody really picked up anybody of any substantial impact. Let me start with the big guns first.
Boston
They completely fell apart in September, they released their coach, their GM walked to Chicago, and Bobby V is coming to town. All of that happened before 2012.
Now Boston lost Papelbon, their closer, and that’s a big deal. He always viewed himself to be enormously valuable and Boston is going to find out if in fact that was justified. He got the big contract from Philly and Boston replaced him with Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon. They’ll try and move Bard to the rotation and that will put newly acquired Melancon as the likely set up man for Bailey. This is all going to be hard work for Bobby V. Papelbon, whether you liked him or hated him, was 4-1 with 31 saves and a 2.94 ERA in 2011. Bailey was 0-4 with 24 saves and a 3.24 ERA. Papelbon has pitched a good amount of innings while in Boston logging about 67 innings each year over the past 4 seasons. Bailey pitched 41 innings last year and that was a drop from his 49 innings the year before. His 2009-2010 numbers looked better than his 2011 numbers for sure. Boston is betting he returns to form. However, the gap between his 2009-2010 numbers and 2011 numbers were so large I felt compelled to look into the matter. The conclusion was that this guy, while not a joke, is no Papelbon. His numbers in 2009-2010 were accumulated, and visible in game logs, by pitching against losing teams. Seriously, I mean he had 25 saves in 2010 while pitching in 49 innings and pitched to a 1.47 ERA. That is a pretty darn good line. But if you check out his game logs, 21 of those saves were against teams with perennial losing records (KC, Baltimore, ect). Of those 21 teams with losing records that he recorded a save on and logged well more than half of his innings pitched that season, 8 of them were against teams dead last in their division with 96, 105, 95, losses each, I’m talking about truly terrible teams. This guy is going to be pitching against the most potent offenses in baseball, over and over again. I’m willing to postulate that this guy leads the league in blown saves by the All Star Break! Bailey comes to Boston cheaply, but it will cost them dearly. This guy had Tommy John surgery a few years ago and he will be on the DL as he tries to over throw his way into the AL BEAST. They’ll have to move Melancon into the closers position, and smartly so. He logged 74 innings last year with a 2.78 ERA with Houston. Looking at his game logs, his innings were against more formidable teams. His ERA is actually better than 2.78 as he blew up on June 26th last year against the Rays giving up 5 runs in a third of an inning. He is not a closer, he is a middle relief guy, but I bet he does a better job closing than Bailey does blowing up the first half of the season. I got that whole pen thing worked out in Boston, it’s a disaster and Papelbon will be sorely missed. Blowing saves can crush a team’s mental state, Yankee fans still haven’t recovered from the blown saves of 2001 and 2004 post seasons. Boston will blow a lot of saves this year.
Let’s get to the Boston lineup
Ellsbury
.321, 32 hr, 105 rbi, 39 steals, 52 walks, 46 doubles, 212 hits --- well geeeezus man. Where did this guy come from all of a sudden? We knew he was fast, even if his steals were actually down from previous seasons. We knew he was hurt in 2010 so that year was a write off. But his 2009 season he had 8 home runs in 691 plate appearances. So in a year or two, after an injured season, he went from hitting 8 hrs to 32? Hello… Brady Anderson? I’m not saying Ellsbury is on roids, he’s a good kid, but those numbers are either a one off in 2011 or …. Houston… we have a problem! I mean he went from 27 doubles in a full season in 2009 to 46 in 2011! No matter how you look at it, there is really no way this kid keeps that up. If I was rating the Red Sox I would consider giving him (--), but in reality I think he is a solid player and will produce, but no way he produces that insane 2011 line. I feel bad for him that he didn’t win the AL MVP, that line deserved it.
Crawford
.255, 11 hr, 56 rbi, 18 steals, 23 walks, .289 on base %, 7 triples, - HA HA HA….Well 2011 was a laugher to say the least. He had a career worst in almost every single category of his historical strengths. He has to have a big comeback year right? I bet he does; Crawford was the goat of that that 2011 season, but he’ll be a producer in 2012. I don’t know how much, but every category he produces in will be an improvement over his 2011 line, no way can they be worse, no way. Best chance for Yankee fans is to hope he gets injured early.
Pedroia
.307, 21 hr, 91 rbi, 26 steals, 86 walks, .387 on base %, 37 doubles….I don’t know . . . this is a guy who has been somewhat inconsistent. In 2008 he had 54 doubles, 213 hits, batted .326 and won the AL MVP. The next year (2009), another full season, he under performed in each category, hitting under .300 with 15 hr, 185 hits, 72 RBI. Don’t get me wrong, that’s not a bad line for second base but it is not AL MVP numbers. I’m not even sure what I think of him besides that he is a scrappy guy who seems to come up big in the clutch. I don’t know what to expect from him but I think he’ll be around .300, with 16-18 HR. How he produces may well rest in the hands of Ellsbury and Crawford. I don’t see Pedroia deviating that far from his career numbers. I looked into his production as closely as I could and the only negative I saw (or positive) was that his doubles production was extremely one sided in home games… aka off the Monster. Considering that he is often at the top of the league in doubles that makes him a less productive player on the road.
Adrian Gonzalez
.338, 27 hr, 117 rbi, 74 walks, .410 on base %, 45 doubles, 213 hits, ….27 home runs, a bit weak don’t you think? I mean he has not hit under 30 home runs in the 4 full seasons before 2011 and that was in a pitcher friendly park. The forecast for him in the HR department was much higher in Boston. He is another one that benefited from the Green Monster, hitting 68% of his doubles off the wall in left (that wall is a total friggen joke, it’s like mini golf baseball). I can’t convince myself otherwise; he is a total stud and will rip up the league in 2012. I see higher power numbers, more walks, more RBI’s, but perhaps his average comes down towards .305. Gonzalez hitting .338 was a career best and no doubt aided by the Monster (which isn’t going away). His batting average was 20 points higher at home vs. the road. He hit .447 when putting the ball to left field. But that’s only half the games (at Fenway), and his historical batting average is .293 through 8 seasons. So I don’t care about his increased production in Fenway, and I don’t care about his time at a pitcher friendly park in SD, they both count for half the season. The fact is that through 8 seasons he is a .293 hitter and last year he hit 45 points above his numbers. That has to come back down to earth. He’ll hit over 30 hrs, walk closer to 80-85 times and still crush the ball. But he won’t have 213 hits and he won’t bat .338.
David Ortiz
.309, 29hr, 96 rbi, 78 walks, 83 strike outs, 40 doubles, 162 hits. Everyone likes Ortiz, even though he too was a roid user. I’m sorry for him because I see his 2012 as an awful year. The problem is that statistically it won’t be that bad, it just won’t be anything like his 2011. His last 4 years batting averages were: .309, .270, .238, .264. His last 3 year K’s were 83, 145, 134. I’m not going to run through them all for you here, the point is to say that he out produced himself in 2011 is an understatement. Including all his glory years, Ortiz is a career .283 hitter. I’m expecting him to hit .281, with 26 home runs, 99 strike outs, and being moved down in the lineup to about 6th. Now as a #6 hitter Ortiz will have a fine year, drive in some runs, and be an important lefty bat. But to say that his 2011 line will be reproduced is likely to be very wishful thinking. Remember, Ortiz turns 37 in 2012 and there has been a lot, I mean a lot of speculation that Ortiz is not even that young. I don’t know if he is or if he isn’t, but I know that the only player I’ve ever seen start producing offensively above his career stats in baseball in the later years of his career was Bonds. I think 2011 was the last fun year for Ortiz. (For the record, I have never gotten a players production wrong year in and year out more than Ortiz. He has completely and totally fooled me from the first day he showed up in the AL East to now).
Randoms
I don’t intend to spend much time talking about Saltalamacchia (career .244 hitter) who last season hit .238 and had 24 walks and 119 strike outs, 1 stolen base, making him statistically the worst offensive player in MLB that plays a position. I mean his guy sucks. The best thing to happen to the Yankees in the past year or two has been Boston not resigning Victor Martinez (granted he is hurt now but had a HUGE 2011) By the way… who is playing shortstop there? Mike Aviles? Nick Punto? Man oh man, Nomar looks goooooood!
Let’s just move right to the starting rotation.
Beckett
16-11, 12-10, 6-6, 13-7; he is what he is. In 6 seasons with the Red Sox, 4 of his seasons were pretty average overall. Granted 16-11 is a tad above average, as is 13-7, but ACE material none of those numbers suggest. So if over 66% of his time in Boston he has been a tad above average, what can you really expect from him? He had that one monster year in 2007 with a 20-7 record, but I just think Boston is expecting a bit much from him. Statistically speaking his 2011 was better than his win loss record suggests. His ERA was 2.89, and in his last two games he pitched in he gave up 6 runs in each game (pitching 6, 7 innings) in two losses to Baltimore that ended their season. The run support he got in 2011 was pretty good, but he had 10 no decisions on the year. By comparison, CC Sabathia had only 6. Beckett’s incredible year of 2007 he had only 3 no decisions. I guess we can expect much the same from him this year; 15-16 wins, a nice low ERA, and pitching on days where his offense faces off against the best pitchers on opposing teams. Then again, that’s what ACES do. Is Beckett really an ACE year in and year out? I don’t think he is.
Lester
I’ve always been afraid of him. He is what I believe to be a true ACE. He has never lost more than 9 games in any season, he has a career 3.53 ERA, he’s won at least 15 games in his past 4 seasons, and he’s averaged 203 innings for the last 4 years. Just like CC Sabathia, you know exactly what you’re going to get from this guy. He’ll give you 200 innings, 16 wins minimum, and has the upside to be the Cy Young winner with a little lucky run support. His ERA will be under 3.85 but it will be interesting to see if Bobby V treats him as the team ACE this year, making him face off against ACES of opposing teams. Either way, his stuff is good enough to deliver again. I believe in Lester and I know I’ll see him pitching in Yankee Stadium often. If there is one reason why the Yankees struggle with Boston, it’s him. He holds a 21-11 career record when given 3-5 runs in support, that’s very, very good. When he is given 5+ runs, he is a perfect 49-0, which is insanely good. He has a career 8-3 record vs. the Yankees. Just to put this guy in perspective for you, Lester has a career win loss % of .691. If he hung it up right now guess where he would be on the all-time best win/loss %. Mr. Lester would be the #2 pitcher of all time in that category. You will be hearing a lot more about this in the 2012 season as he crosses over the 1,000 innings pitched threshold (a common barrier in pitching where your stats get measured against the ages). If the Red Sox have a great season it’s going to be because Lester continued his shut down stuff on the Yankees and the rest of the AL East. If the Red Sox flounder this year it will because the rest of the pitching staff floundered, Lester will be solid.
Clay Buchholz
Here is a line for you; 3-1, 2-9, 7-4, 6-3. These are 4 of his 5 years in Boston. The outlier was his 2010 17-7 breakout year. He’s never pitched more than 173 innings and he has averaged 89 innings over his 5 years. When he pitches well he is good towards the back end of the rotation but he’s not durable and he’s really not proven. He’s 27 years old so he could still be coming but my point is that forecasting his big breakout season is not predicated on any sign of durability. In MLB you have to log innings and prove durable through the spring, summer, and early fall. Buchholz has not done that, and is unlikely to do that in 2012. Either way, the Red Sox are not banking on him. He is a back end of the rotation guy and if the Red Sox are going to be successful in 2012 it’s going to be because of other members of the pitching staff.
Dice K
He is going to have to totally reinvent himself in order to even pitch at the MLB level in 2012. 4-6, 9-6, 3-3, those are his last 3 years. His ERA is regularly above 5.25 and he has not shown himself even interested in working with the Red Sox. Will Bobby V be able to change that? I really don’t think so. This is the final year of that awful contract and Boston will not bring him back even if he lights up the league in 2012. I’m not going to spend much time on Dice K, nor will Boston fans.
Daniel Bard
Last I heard they were going to try moving him to the rotation (ala Joba rules). 49, 74, 73 innings pitched in the past 3 years. Stretching him out is going to be a project that they have no idea what to expect on. We’re going to be hearing about the BARD rules all spring. It won’t matter much he’ll be back in relief when Bailey goes down for the count by the All Star break. He’ll do fine in relief; this whole starting rotation thing in Boston is actually a bigger mess than in NY heading into
