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12 years ago  ::  Jan 30, 2010 - 1:22PM #191
BigGuy
Posts: 66,015

Adjusting PECOTA’s Projected Standings


By Mike Axisa


Lots of Yankee fans were up in arms a few days ago when word got out  that the nerds at Baseball Prospectus projected the Yankees to finish in third place in the  AL East despite winning 93 games. How could that be possible with  their lineup and increasingly deep rotation? Well, said nerds have gone  back and adjusted their standings, correcting mistakes,  tweaking the process, etcetera, etcetera.


This time around, they have the Yankees and Red Sox tied atop the AL  East with identical 93-69 records and identical +122 run differentials.  The Rays are knocked back to third place with 92 wins and a +114 run  differential. I’m not going to post the full league standings because  they’re behind a pay wall, but here’s the only division you probably  care about…



Furthermore, they project the Yanks to have the best OBP in the game  by almost ten points, and not coincidentally the most runs scored in the  league by 28.  Only three teams are projected to win 90+ games, and  you’re looking at them in the chart above. Say what you will about the  validity of the rankings, but they are very good at giving us a general  idea of what is likely to happen. Despite laughter from the masses,  PECOTA nailed the Rays’ breakout in 2008 the the ChiSox’s collapse in  2007, for example.


The Yankees and Red Sox might not tie atop the division with 93 wins,  but chances are they’ll finish 1-2 in a tight race. The Yanks will  probably push more than 855 runs across the plate, but the idea is that  they have the best lineup in the league. The Mets … well they’re still  expected to finish in fourth place. I’m not sure if that accounts for  that huge Josh Fogg pickup, though.




Posted on Saturday, January 30th, 2010

"Leave the gun. Take the cannoli."
12 years ago  ::  Jan 30, 2010 - 4:39PM #192
BigGuy
Posts: 66,015

Remembering Matt Nokes


By Benjamin Kabak


For Yankee fans of a certain age, the name Matt Nokes brings back  memories of false hopes and an era in which the Yanks had no plan.  Acquired from the Tigers in early June 1990, Nokes was that rare  left-handed hitting catcher, but unfortunately, for the Yanks he  couldn’t do much hitting or catching. After the 1994 season, the Yankees  were happy to let him go.


This week, as his Card Corner feature on Bronx Banter, Bruce Markusen reflected  on the Matt Nokes era. The Yanks, as Markusen relates, brought in  Matt Nokes with the allure of his 1987 32-home run All Star rookie  campaign firmly in their minds. They needed some left-handed pop and  also hoped to add to their catching depth in a potential  run at Ron Darling. The Yanks were 18-30 when Nokes arrived that  year and never got much better.


Luckily for the Yanks, they gave up only Lance McCullers and Clay  Parker because Nokes amounted to little. “When it came to the defensive  skills required of a catcher,” Markusen wrote, “Nokes came up short just  about everywhere. He moved stiffly behind the plate, making him a  liability on pitches in the dirt. He didn’t throw well, hampered by bad  mechanics and lackluster arm strength. And just to complete the  trifecta, he had little understanding of how to call a game.”


When he finally departed from the Bronx, Nokes had hit .249/.304/     .437 with 71 jacks. He bounced around the Majors for a few years and  then played in the independent leagues for a bunch of seasons. He now  serves as the Class A Potomac Nationals’ hitting coach.


Even at the time of Nokes’ acquisition, some — such as The Times’ Murray Chass — questioned  the wisdom of the move. “The Yankees do not have a philosophy, or a  plan, for that matter. In acquiring Claudell Washington, Matt Nokes and  Mike Witt in the past six weeks,” he wrote in 1990, “they have operated  on a patchwork philosophy, sort of like a public works crew repairing  city streets after a weather-whipped winter.”


Yet, the younger fans always enjoyed Nokes. He had a ridiculously  wide batting stance and seemed to love playing the game. When he hit the  ball, it would travel far. These days the Yanks are a far cry away from  the era of Matt Nokes. They’ve enjoyed stability and success from the  catching position for the better parts of 15 seasons now. As Markusen  says, Nokes, that rare left-handed hitter, just wasn’t what the Yanks of  the early 1990s needed whether they knew it or not.




Posted on Saturday, January 30th, 2010 at  1:58 pm in Days of Yore.

"Leave the gun. Take the cannoli."
12 years ago  ::  Jan 30, 2010 - 4:41PM #193
BigGuy
Posts: 66,015

Replacement  level



January
30


A few spots will be decided in spring training,  but for the most part, we now know how the 2009 Yankees have  transformed into the 2010 Yankees.


Of the 31 players who got at least 70 at-bats or pitched at least 25  innings last season, 11 will not be back. All but two have been replaced  by someone younger.


Out: Johnny Damon
In: Curtis Granderson
Whether it’s Granderson, Gardner or Winn in left field, this seems to be  a defensive upgrade. Offensively, Damon’s replacement seems to be Nick  Johnson, who generally has a better on-base percentage, but almost  certainly has less speed and power.


Out: Hideki Matsui
In: Nick Johnson
Actually, Johnson is Matsui’s replacement in title only. In  reality, the Yankees will probably look for Granderson to replace  Matsui’s offense. Granderson actually has a higher career slugging  percentage than Matsui, but only time will tell whether he’s actually a  more productive hitter in New York.


Out: Chien-Ming Wang
In: Javier Vazquez
Perhaps the biggest difference for the Yankees rotation is that  Wang threw fewer than 100 innings each of the past two seasons, and he  threw more than 200 innings once in his big league career. Vazquez has  thrown at least 200 innings each of the past five years.


Out: Melky Cabrera
In: Randy Winn
This is the spot for a switch-hitting outfielder who will go into spring  training to battle for a starting job, and is capable of playing all  three outfield positions well off the bench. Cabrera is younger and had  much better stats last season. Winn is cheaper and had much better stats  in 2007 and 2008.


Out: Phil Coke
In: Boone Logan
Coke held lefties to a .195 batting average and .218 on-base  percentage last season. Logan didn’t come close to those numbers – .231  average, .318 on base — but he did keep the ball on the ground and limit  lefties to a .308 slugging percentage (left-handers slugged .366  against Coke). Despite having pitched in almost twice as many big league  games, Logan is actually two years younger than Coke.


Out: Jose Molina
In: Francisco Cervelli
So far, this is true. Molina is still a free agent, Cervelli is the  only backup catcher on the 40-man roster and the Yankees seem content  to leave it that way. Cervelli actually had more Yankees at-bats last  season than Jerry Hairston Jr., Eric Hinske or Cody Ransom. He was  better than Molina in every offensive category and — subjectively — was  just as good defensively.


Out: Brian Bruney, Jose Veras
In: David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves
Bruney and Veras were on the Yankees opening day roster last  season. Robertson and Aceves were not. Things changed by the end of the  season, and that change will likely carry into 2010. Bruney, Veras and  Coke are the only Yankees relievers who won’t be back after throwing at  least 25 innings last season.


Out: Jerry Hairston Jr., Cody Ransom,  Angel Berroa
In: Ramiro Pena, Kevin Russo, Reegie Corona,  Eduardo Nunez
Berroa didn’t have 70 at-bats, but he was one in a string of utility  infielders last season. The front-runner to open 2010 in that role  is the same guy who opened 2009: Pena. If he can’t handle the spot, the  Yankees have three other young infielders on the 40-man. If none can do  it, last year taught the that it’s pretty easy to trade for a  replacement.


Out: Eric Hinske
In: Jamie Hoffmann
Hinske was brought in mid-season for depth and power off the bench.  He was good to have, but ultimately expendable (hence the one  postseason plate appearance). Hoffmann is kind of the same. He hits  right handed and probably doesn’t have Hinske’s pop, but he’s being  brought to camp as a Rule 5 wild card, a low-cost gamble trying for a  bench job.



Posted by Chad  Jennings on Saturday, January 30th, 2010

"Leave the gun. Take the cannoli."
12 years ago  ::  Jan 31, 2010 - 8:58AM #194
yankeewanabe7
Posts: 182

Jan 30, 2010 -- 1:22PM, BigGuy wrote:



Adjusting PECOTA’s Projected Standings


By Mike Axisa


Lots of Yankee fans were up in arms a few days ago when word got out that the nerds at Baseball Prospectus projected the Yankees to finish in third place in the AL East despite winning 93 games. How could that be possible with their lineup and increasingly deep rotation? Well, said nerds have gone back and adjusted their standings, correcting mistakes, tweaking the process, etcetera, etcetera.


This time around, they have the Yankees and Red Sox tied atop the AL East with identical 93-69 records and identical +122 run differentials. The Rays are knocked back to third place with 92 wins and a +114 run differential. I’m not going to post the full league standings because they’re behind a pay wall, but here’s the only division you probably care about…



Furthermore, they project the Yanks to have the best OBP in the game by almost ten points, and not coincidentally the most runs scored in the league by 28.  Only three teams are projected to win 90+ games, and you’re looking at them in the chart above. Say what you will about the validity of the rankings, but they are very good at giving us a general idea of what is likely to happen. Despite laughter from the masses, PECOTA nailed the Rays’ breakout in 2008 the the ChiSox’s collapse in 2007, for example.


The Yankees and Red Sox might not tie atop the division with 93 wins, but chances are they’ll finish 1-2 in a tight race. The Yanks will probably push more than 855 runs across the plate, but the idea is that they have the best lineup in the league. The Mets … well they’re still expected to finish in fourth place. I’m not sure if that accounts for that huge Josh Fogg pickup, though.




Posted on Saturday, January 30th, 2010



boy are they reaching for staws now, we will score at least 50 runs more than the redsox, and 93 wins is still way short.

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