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Cashman and the way he handles his pitching.
4 years ago  ::  Mar 12, 2019 - 9:25AM #41
cleanuphtr12
Posts: 1,272

Mar 11, 2019 -- 6:14PM, nost wrote:


Actually you don't you say the same thing in seven different ways.




Something tells me the irony of you making this statement is completely lost on you.

_______________________________________________

Please note:  I'm arguing against your post, not against you as a person.  I respect your right to have a different opinion even if I completely disagree with every word you wrote.
4 years ago  ::  Mar 13, 2019 - 5:58AM #42
qwik3457
Posts: 12,673

Mar 11, 2019 -- 5:13PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Severino will be back by the end of April. At that point, there will be a full 5 man rotation




Tread carefully on that one. I know the Yanks are publicly minimizing Severino's injury. His current schedule says he's supposed to be back by May. But that's a pitching shoulder injury, and that's always scary. It might be minimal and only a month lost on this year. Or it might be a lot longer. It could even be the end of Severino as an ace, or near-ace. That looks like a low probability event right now, but 6 weeks from now it might be a much higher probability.


And the Yanks have lately been very wrong more than once on the significance and/or duration of injuries to key players. Just a couple of days ago, they said that Hicks was on the mend. A couple of days later, he took a cortisone shot.


In any case, no need to take significant action on Severino's injury right now, but I'm certain there have been and still are wheels turning within the organization, people examining many potential plans in case the injury is worse than they're saying, or the recovery takes longer...or even doesn't happen for a year or more. Plan for the worst; hope for the best.

Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
4 years ago  ::  Mar 13, 2019 - 8:00AM #43
2manycarbs
Posts: 1

I'm not so thrilled that here we are again, another season approaches, and we are really thin when it comes to serious starters. But these issues can be solved. 

4 years ago  ::  Mar 13, 2019 - 12:11PM #44
felipe27point5
Posts: 2,645

Mar 13, 2019 -- 5:58AM, qwik3457 wrote:


Mar 11, 2019 -- 5:13PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Severino will be back by the end of April. At that point, there will be a full 5 man rotation




Tread carefully on that one. I know the Yanks are publicly minimizing Severino's injury. His current schedule says he's supposed to be back by May. But that's a pitching shoulder injury, and that's always scary. It might be minimal and only a month lost on this year. Or it might be a lot longer. It could even be the end of Severino as an ace, or near-ace. That looks like a low probability event right now, but 6 weeks from now it might be a much higher probability.


And the Yanks have lately been very wrong more than once on the significance and/or duration of injuries to key players. Just a couple of days ago, they said that Hicks was on the mend. A couple of days later, he took a cortisone shot.


In any case, no need to take significant action on Severino's injury right now, but I'm certain there have been and still are wheels turning within the organization, people examining many potential plans in case the injury is worse than they're saying, or the recovery takes longer...or even doesn't happen for a year or more. Plan for the worst; hope for the best.




I haven't seen the May updated, anything i've seen has shown "end of april" which technically we're splitting hairs over a day, but i think the connotation of when one would be used over the other could imply a difference of 2 weeks. If you have a link to an update, i actually would appreciate it


But for the rest of your post... yeah, injuries can happen. And you don't know when they're going to happen, and you don't know who they're going to happen to, and you don't know how bad they're going to hit. We saw Judge miss 6 weeks last year because of a HBP. So with that in mind, we probably should have signed Harper in case Judge gets injured by another HBP, right? And we probably should have signed Maldonado to a minors deal and stuck him in AAA because Sanchez was injured last year. Didi's out, but what if Tulo gets injured - we should have signed Josh Harrison for further depth - except no, this is all unreasonable.


Severino IS injured however, and we all know that injuries can change outlooks, and his career very well may be forever derailed by this and he'll be the next Joba and Hughes, knock on wood. However, i think it's jumping the gun to go right there. What we know is that he's due back, he's presumed to be due back healthy, and if the roster and rotation crunch happens in May rather than April, it still begs the question of what to do with pitcher X when Severino returns


What's most probable is the Yankees enter the season with their current batch, maybe carry an extra reliever for the first couple weeks, and use off days to condense off days to a 4 man rotation on regular rest. What's next most probable is they pick up somebody who lost a spring battle and gets released. What's very unlikely is they make a big acquisition for a Gio or Keuchel knowing they have an otherwise full rotation. The only way they make a bigger splash like that is if they know something we don't, and they know the window for severino is more like 3 months 


Like i say, injuries and bad injuries can always happen, but you kind of just have to proceed on with what you know is already true, and what you expect that to be in such and such time period

You are welcome to recall my posts when it becomes that i'm proven wrong as long as we judge it on the merits of what we knew to be true at the time it was posted.
4 years ago  ::  Mar 13, 2019 - 2:32PM #45
qimqam
Posts: 469

Mar 8, 2019 -- 1:00PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Mar 8, 2019 -- 12:41PM, bomberhojoe wrote:



Unfortunately, teams now feel they have to {sign} players several years beyond their decline iin order to sign them. If it were my money, I wouldn't give any player more than 5 years. Granted, I probably would miss out on players who were given those extra years from other teams. But maybe it would mean you get a team filled with second tier stars rather than a few big stars and average/below average MLB players.




Depending on the player, heck yeah you have to. No harper, no machado, no trout, no corbin


I don't understand the logic of limiting at 5 years though. Would you rather sign a guy for 5/150, or 7 at 150? Or 10 at 150? If i can use years to lower AAV, why wouldn't i do that? If i have to DFA a guy in year 6, i've still paid him 150 for 5, i've just deferred some of the payments. I would totally game the system like that


Let's say for Harper, the Yankees had offered him 15 years and 330. He might have taken that deal, and you'd have an extra 3+ million towards luxuy tax limit. Cut him in year 10 for all i care, but it would have probably worked out cheaper than offering him 280 for 7 when you factor in luxury tax and the net present value




You are only looking at it from the teams point of view. If you're trying to attract a player ... the player you would certainly chose a 5/150 over a 10/150. Using your logic why not make it 20 or 30 years?


A better comparison is 5/150 vs 7/175 vs 10/200.  In my opionion pay up for the prime years and then get rid of the player and get him off your books. 



4 years ago  ::  Mar 13, 2019 - 5:33PM #46
felipe27point5
Posts: 2,645

Mar 13, 2019 -- 2:32PM, qimqam wrote:


Mar 8, 2019 -- 1:00PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Mar 8, 2019 -- 12:41PM, bomberhojoe wrote:



Unfortunately, teams now feel they have to {sign} players several years beyond their decline iin order to sign them. If it were my money, I wouldn't give any player more than 5 years. Granted, I probably would miss out on players who were given those extra years from other teams. But maybe it would mean you get a team filled with second tier stars rather than a few big stars and average/below average MLB players.




Depending on the player, heck yeah you have to. No harper, no machado, no trout, no corbin


I don't understand the logic of limiting at 5 years though. Would you rather sign a guy for 5/150, or 7 at 150? Or 10 at 150? If i can use years to lower AAV, why wouldn't i do that? If i have to DFA a guy in year 6, i've still paid him 150 for 5, i've just deferred some of the payments. I would totally game the system like that


Let's say for Harper, the Yankees had offered him 15 years and 330. He might have taken that deal, and you'd have an extra 3+ million towards luxuy tax limit. Cut him in year 10 for all i care, but it would have probably worked out cheaper than offering him 280 for 7 when you factor in luxury tax and the net present value




You are only looking at it from the teams point of view. If you're trying to attract a player ... the player you would certainly chose a 5/150 over a 10/150. Using your logic why not make it 20 or 30 years?


A better comparison is 5/150 vs 7/175 vs 10/200.  In my opionion pay up for the prime years and then get rid of the player and get him off your books. 




We were having the conversation in the context of whether they'd ever offer a deal longer than 5 years, so yeah, i was only looking at it from the POV of the team, and i was using an extreme example to illustrate that


Per your numbers, if i'm the team why the H would I pick 5/150 if 10/200 is on the table?  It would be like signing a guy for 5/150, and then 5/50. For a cost of $50 million dollars, i can lower the AAV of the contract by $10 million a year, lower the cashflow requirements by $10 million a year, and lower the luxury tax hit by perhaps $5 million a year. The money saved from the luxury tax alone would pay for half of that final 5 years, so it's really the effect of being 5 for 25


Now you still have an assset locked in. If, after 5 years, the player is playing like garbage, cut him. Continue to pay him for 5 years, and you're only out $25 million dollars total over 10 years as an overpay. That's about what they paid Arod just to leave


If, after 5 years, the player is still productive, you have a player providing value for you, and the cost you paid for that is $5 mill a year.


And again, i can't help but reference back to the Robinson Cano contract you were willing to pick up. You'd give a guy $30 million a year rather than risk having a $20 million a year guy not being productive in 6 years. That's lunacy.

You are welcome to recall my posts when it becomes that i'm proven wrong as long as we judge it on the merits of what we knew to be true at the time it was posted.
4 years ago  ::  Mar 14, 2019 - 11:42AM #47
nost
Posts: 324

If anyone here thinks the Yankees are going to get a full season outta Servino this year you are mistaken.

4 years ago  ::  Mar 14, 2019 - 11:53AM #48
felipe27point5
Posts: 2,645

Mar 14, 2019 -- 11:42AM, nost wrote:


If anyone here thinks the Yankees are going to get a full season outta Servino this year you are mistaken.




Especially considering we already know he'll miss most of April due to Injury


If anybody here thinks the Yankees are going to sign Bryce Harper this offseason, you're also mistaken as we know he's already signed with a different team

You are welcome to recall my posts when it becomes that i'm proven wrong as long as we judge it on the merits of what we knew to be true at the time it was posted.
4 years ago  ::  Mar 14, 2019 - 12:04PM #49
luvdayanks
Posts: 31,514

Mar 14, 2019 -- 11:42AM, nost wrote:


If anyone here thinks the Yankees are going to get a full season outta Servino this year you are mistaken.




Brilliant Observation Mr. Glass Half Empty.

4 years ago  ::  Mar 14, 2019 - 12:17PM #50
Lola
Posts: 30,038

Mar 14, 2019 -- 12:04PM, luvdayanks wrote:

Mar 14, 2019 -- 11:42AM, nost wrote:


If anyone here thinks the Yankees are going to get a full season outta Servino this year you are mistaken.




Brilliant Observation Mr. Glass Half Empty.





Honestly this board seems more negative than ever. While there's a lot of activity this off season... it's a lot of complaining. Not very fun or entertaining... imo!

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