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Cashman's Crystal Ball
3 years ago  ::  Oct 11, 2019 - 11:05AM #31
bumper
Posts: 13,172

Oct 10, 2019 -- 10:01PM, CHL59 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 9:47PM, bumper wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 6:09PM, CHL59 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 5:13PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 4:54PM, CHL59 wrote:


Let me say we would be a better regular season team with Kershaw, but we didn't need him and I am glad we have what we have right now and I am very happy Kershaw is not here.. Next season is next season and there will be adds to our starting rotation and it won't be Kershaw so he is at this point a moot topic. Now Cole, well, that's different but we will see. I will say this. Watch him tonight against the Rays. You might be surprised at how effective he is, or should I say isn't.


If he is on I will be really surprised. He is home, he has had some rest since his 118 pitch outing, but he will not be the same guy he was before he threw those 118 pitches. He is a good front line big time pitcher, and we will see how good after tonight. I bet the Rays. And I will win 268 dollars for my 100 dollar bet.


That is what the odds were when I made it. I wish I could bet you personally about how good Cole will be. Also I want the Rays against the Yankees only because we have home Field, so that played into why I bet them also. Should be a good game one way or the other and I know for sure Kershaw is NOT pitching until next season. I shoulda bet on that.Laughing




Well, good for you, but it's a pretty indefensible stance to take.


Kershaw did something nobody on the Yankees has been able to so far... take a playoff start into the 6th inning. If we had Kershaw, for sure we would have 4 solid starters, and we wouldn't need to rely on a bullpenning game. Or, they might start Happ who's thrown 1 inning in the last 2+ weeks. Or, a shaky CC. Even if we do a bullpenning game we'll probably need 2 or more from Happ to bridge the gap to the setup guys. 


Personally, i'd swap Kershaw for happ in a heartbeat without even thinking about it. i don't care what his postseason struggles are, he's still better than happ




OMG, what don't you, a known analytic lover extraordinaire, understand about the Yankee pitching? Not one Yankee pitcher will go 5 and that is the plan. I know you know more about analytics than me. However It doesn't matter if we had Whitey and Guidry, Petitte and Wells, lol... Get it? According to the analytics they are sworn to follow this P S, they will not face the order 3 times, maybe not even 2.5 times. It has nothing to do with anything other than what the "plan is". I am a known analytic non believer for the most part, and even I know that is what they are doing on purpose because they love our pen and so do I, and they think that it makes sense in short series because that's what the analytics tell them to do. Seriously you know that I thought.




i agree the 3rd time through is "the plan", but while we have the horses in the bullpen, think it's more because our starters can't get through a lineup a third time. tanaka has a BAA of .240 first 2 times through, paxton .230, but both balloon to over .300 third time. on other hand, gerrit cole's BAA the first 2 times through is .185 and .192 the third time. verlander is .179 first 2 times and gets even tougher third time at .157. pretty good chance both guys would go 7 if we had them. for the record, guidry was at .234 first 2 times through, .253 third time and .272 the fourth. pretty sure he'd go at least 7 as well. ford was at consistent .230 first 3 times through, going only up to .256 fourth time.


fwiw, hypothetical but kershaw on the yankees is a no brainer.




Hey Bumper, where the hell did you get the numbers for Ford and Guidry? They didn't have computers then did they? LMAO! Seriously cool stuff.. was that from Elias? If so where would they get that info? Wasn't aware of any way to track that info in the 50's-70's.




not sure how complete they are but they have game logs going back into the early 1900's. feel sorry but grateful for the poor slobs who had to enter all that data. Smile

3 years ago  ::  Oct 11, 2019 - 11:23AM #32
yankeebest
Posts: 23

"Unfortunately, he also passed on Chad Morten, Patrick Corbin and Gerrit Cole over the past couple of offseason decision making and it has left our rotation very vulnerable in long series. Thankfully, the Rays are bailing him out by extending the Astros rotation to the limit and the compromised position of their starters will allow us to probably to finally edge them out."


1) patrick corbin did not even let the yankees's make an offer


2) gerrit cole went to college also cashman was not giving up torres for cole.

3 years ago  ::  Oct 11, 2019 - 12:08PM #33
CHL59
Posts: 4,399

Oct 11, 2019 -- 11:05AM, bumper wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 10:01PM, CHL59 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 9:47PM, bumper wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 6:09PM, CHL59 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 5:13PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 4:54PM, CHL59 wrote:


Let me say we would be a better regular season team with Kershaw, but we didn't need him and I am glad we have what we have right now and I am very happy Kershaw is not here.. Next season is next season and there will be adds to our starting rotation and it won't be Kershaw so he is at this point a moot topic. Now Cole, well, that's different but we will see. I will say this. Watch him tonight against the Rays. You might be surprised at how effective he is, or should I say isn't.


If he is on I will be really surprised. He is home, he has had some rest since his 118 pitch outing, but he will not be the same guy he was before he threw those 118 pitches. He is a good front line big time pitcher, and we will see how good after tonight. I bet the Rays. And I will win 268 dollars for my 100 dollar bet.


That is what the odds were when I made it. I wish I could bet you personally about how good Cole will be. Also I want the Rays against the Yankees only because we have home Field, so that played into why I bet them also. Should be a good game one way or the other and I know for sure Kershaw is NOT pitching until next season. I shoulda bet on that.Laughing




Well, good for you, but it's a pretty indefensible stance to take.


Kershaw did something nobody on the Yankees has been able to so far... take a playoff start into the 6th inning. If we had Kershaw, for sure we would have 4 solid starters, and we wouldn't need to rely on a bullpenning game. Or, they might start Happ who's thrown 1 inning in the last 2+ weeks. Or, a shaky CC. Even if we do a bullpenning game we'll probably need 2 or more from Happ to bridge the gap to the setup guys. 


Personally, i'd swap Kershaw for happ in a heartbeat without even thinking about it. i don't care what his postseason struggles are, he's still better than happ




OMG, what don't you, a known analytic lover extraordinaire, understand about the Yankee pitching? Not one Yankee pitcher will go 5 and that is the plan. I know you know more about analytics than me. However It doesn't matter if we had Whitey and Guidry, Petitte and Wells, lol... Get it? According to the analytics they are sworn to follow this P S, they will not face the order 3 times, maybe not even 2.5 times. It has nothing to do with anything other than what the "plan is". I am a known analytic non believer for the most part, and even I know that is what they are doing on purpose because they love our pen and so do I, and they think that it makes sense in short series because that's what the analytics tell them to do. Seriously you know that I thought.




i agree the 3rd time through is "the plan", but while we have the horses in the bullpen, think it's more because our starters can't get through a lineup a third time. tanaka has a BAA of .240 first 2 times through, paxton .230, but both balloon to over .300 third time. on other hand, gerrit cole's BAA the first 2 times through is .185 and .192 the third time. verlander is .179 first 2 times and gets even tougher third time at .157. pretty good chance both guys would go 7 if we had them. for the record, guidry was at .234 first 2 times through, .253 third time and .272 the fourth. pretty sure he'd go at least 7 as well. ford was at consistent .230 first 3 times through, going only up to .256 fourth time.


fwiw, hypothetical but kershaw on the yankees is a no brainer.




Hey Bumper, where the hell did you get the numbers for Ford and Guidry? They didn't have computers then did they? LMAO! Seriously cool stuff.. was that from Elias? If so where would they get that info? Wasn't aware of any way to track that info in the 50's-70's.




not sure how complete they are but they have game logs going back into the early 1900's. feel sorry but grateful for the poor slobs who had to enter all that data. Smile




Exactly. Who the hell watched those guys every pitch and logged it and did the math for hours on end with hundreds of pitchers? Back in the 50's and 60's the computers were not exactly used for baseball data. They were bigger than 747's first of all. Anyway that was interesting stuff you found.

you miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
3 years ago  ::  Oct 12, 2019 - 7:18AM #34
yankoldfan
Posts: 12,186

Comparing pitchers isn't always how good they are by their numbers... Also someone earlier posted Kershaw is much better than CC at this stage of his career, why wouldn't he be, CC is years older... I would take CC in his prime over Kershaw in his prime any day... Let's also stop and think how old is Happ ?? Kershaw can't win a big game to save his soul... It's like I told my Twins fans, look at the league they play in, Kershaw has always played with the pitchers batting, no DH, that helps a lot as well, his Division he plays in isn't as good as the AL East, same goes for the Twins, they have two teams that lost close if not a 100 games this year, I honestly doubt if they would have been in the AL east they wouldn't have finished third or even forth ?? I said after we played the Dodgers they would never win the WS, I was right they didn't even get in...

3 years ago  ::  Oct 12, 2019 - 8:49AM #35
bumper
Posts: 13,172

Oct 12, 2019 -- 7:18AM, yankoldfan wrote:


Comparing pitchers isn't always how good they are by their numbers... Also someone earlier posted Kershaw is much better than CC at this stage of his career, why wouldn't he be, CC is years older... I would take CC in his prime over Kershaw in his prime any day... Let's also stop and think how old is Happ ?? Kershaw can't win a big game to save his soul... It's like I told my Twins fans, look at the league they play in, Kershaw has always played with the pitchers batting, no DH, that helps a lot as well, his Division he plays in isn't as good as the AL East, same goes for the Twins, they have two teams that lost close if not a 100 games this year, I honestly doubt if they would have been in the AL east they wouldn't have finished third or even forth ?? I said after we played the Dodgers they would never win the WS, I was right they didn't even get in...




can't knock kershaw as a pitcher. he had an amazing run but he certainly gets david priceitis in the playoffs. still waiting for his moment if it ever comes.

3 years ago  ::  Oct 12, 2019 - 11:38PM #36
northernclipper
Posts: 2,598

Oct 10, 2019 -- 4:54PM, CHL59 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 3:52PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 3:29PM, CHL59 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 2:47PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 2:44PM, CHL59 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 1:57PM, felipe27point5 wrote:


Oct 10, 2019 -- 1:40PM, CHL59 wrote:


Well, first of all no one is whining that I can tell. Also Kershaw wasn't better than any of them simply because his wins or stats may look better,  because I would take any pitcher we have in the post season over Kershaw and that includes Happ. That's because that is where we are right now. The regular season AND Kershaw are OVER!!! Do you know Kershaw's record in the post season? Soo....




Nobody's been whining this year about how we need more starting pitching? Hmm, maybe you should hang around more often. There was plenty of it - especially near the deadline


Kershaw is 9-11 with a 4.45 ERA. Happ is 1-2 with a 5.24 ERA. Not sure what that tells you




It tells me that Stats don't always tell the tale. The player is usually the deciding factor, and his baseball instincts and his make up and how he reacts under stress. Used to be back in the day those personality traits were almost, and at times, were, more important than the players stats. If it were just Stats then perhaps Mantle and Jeter and God knows who else would never had had their shot at the majors.


Micky almost quit baseball and in the minors called his Dad crying he wanted to come home.  Literally crying.Dad talked him out of it. So did Jeter call his Dad that he was homesick and thought about giving up. Dad talked him out of it. Their stats were not that great either in the early minors.


Kershaw obviously has a stress related reaction at times, where he loses focus it looks like. Happ pitches in NY getting boo'dat times, and he is out there when called on and he has improved. Unlike a guy named Sonny Gray. That's what it tells me.




... Yeah, because in this new world of stats and analytics there's never been a struggling player who an organization stuck with or acquired and they turned it aorund ala Tauchman or Voit


As for improving in New York, i'm not sure we're both talking about the same JA Happ. I'm talking about the one who went 9-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 2018, and then went 12-8 with a 4.91 ERA this past season. 




Don't get off topic. I'm talking aboiut the struggles Happ had early this season, and getting boo'd, then improving from that point to now and him over Kershaw in the Post Season IMO would be better than Kershaw since Kershaw and his team are on the couch watching Happ and the Yankees on Saturday. Happ may not pitch this PS, but then again he may not have to. To me Kershaw is a good pitcher, no doubt, but I like that he manned up and answered questions after the game about his post season struggles.  However the whole point of the thread I posted is that I like what we have and glad we don't have Kershaw, Machado or Harper because Cashman, under advisement or not, passed one way or the other, on all of them. Look where they are and look where we are. I like us.




But to say we wouldn't be a better team with a pitcher like Kershaw is pretty silly.


The angels are at home too, but you probably prefer Cameron Maybin to Mike Trout. Using that logic, we shouldn't make any transactions this offseason because we got here with these guys so who needs Gerrit Cole




Let me say we would be a better regular season team with Kershaw, but we didn't need him and I am glad we have what we have right now and I am very happy Kershaw is not here.. Next season is next season and there will be adds to our starting rotation and it won't be Kershaw so he is at this point a moot topic. Now Cole, well, that's different but we will see. I will say this. Watch him tonight against the Rays. You might be surprised at how effective he is, or should I say isn't.


If he is on I will be really surprised. He is home, he has had some rest since his 118 pitch outing, but he will not be the same guy he was before he threw those 118 pitches. He is a good front line big time pitcher, and we will see how good after tonight. I bet the Rays. And I will win 268 dollars for my 100 dollar bet.


That is what the odds were when I made it. I wish I could bet you personally about how good Cole will be. Also I want the Rays against the Yankees only because we have home Field, so that played into why I bet them also. Should be a good game one way or the other and I know for sure Kershaw is NOT pitching until next season. I shoulda bet on that.Laughing




Too bad your bet didn't work out, but I'm sure you'll find a silver lining somewhere.  nc

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