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Gallo in a deep slump post-ASG
2 months ago  ::  Aug 09, 2021 - 12:26PM #41
jimwest
Posts: 4,669

Aug 9, 2021 -- 7:19AM, yankoldfan wrote:


Most like no one person will agree with me, but he needs to bunt a few more times when the left side is left completely open, I don't know how many times since he's been here that he came up with a runner in scoring position and a bunt to that open side might have scored a run.. he strikes out a lot and in big circumstances too often...




If you believe that him bunting sometimes will have teams stop shifting, they won't. They will gladly concede bunt singles. He is a HR, power hitting  threat, so a HR or double/triple is more impactful. They are striving to prevent those types of hits, so they will give him some bunt singles, or the walks.

2 months ago  ::  Aug 09, 2021 - 3:41PM #42
qwik3457
Posts: 12,492

Aug 9, 2021 -- 8:49AM, Jon wrote:


Aug 6, 2021 -- 1:01PM, qwik3457 wrote:


Aug 2, 2021 -- 3:54PM, Jon wrote:

All the Cubs who were traded HRed their first game. A lot of change of scenery needed. Gallo will be fine. He's a. 240-.250 avg hitter, but most importantly he's an OF glove.



He also hits into very few double plays, because he's left-handed, has above-average speed, seems to hustle all the time, and has one of the lowest ground-ball rates in the major leagues (2nd lowest Ground ball to fly ball ratio among all batters from 2015 to 2021, only Hoskins on the Phillies has a lower ratio among 198 hitters with at least 2000 PA in those years).





No. He doesn't GIDP BECAUSE HE STRIKES OUT ALMOST 40% OF THE TIME.



At bats: 1863


Hits: 391


Strikeouts: 815




Let's take Aaron Judge as a measuring stick.


Gallo has batted in 385 PA in which a GIDP was possible. Judge has 504 such PA. Gallo has hit into 9 GIDP, Judge has hit into 54. Gallo has K'd in 131 of those PA, Judge in 133 of them. That means 254 other outs for Gallo, and 371 for Judge. By their career air outs vs. ground outs ratios, that means 99 groundouts by Gallo in GIDP plate appearances, and 196 for Judge.  So Judge has 47% more balls in play in GIDP situations, but almost twice as many ground balls in play. Add in the fact that although Gallo's career exit velocity is 93, Judge's is 95. So Judge has had many more opportunites in GIDP AB, and hits the ball harder, and is right handed, and has hit almost twice as many ground balls in those situations.


Strikeout rate is a part of it. Strikout rate per PA in those situations is 34% for Gallo, and just 26% for Judge. Opportunities is also part of it. Judge has had 30% more GIDP opportunties than Gallo. That's a sizable part of the difference. But hitting twice as many grounders (as well as probably hitting them slightly harder, on average), is probably a bigger part than either of those, nearly as big as those two together. 


A relative 25% or so higher K rate in GIDP situations doesn't remotely begin to account for Judge having 6 times as many DPs as Gallo, in almost the same number of career plate appearances. 30% more GIDP opportunites and 26% fewer K is about half the difference, and 97% more groundballs makes up the other half. The number of groundballs hit MUST be a larger factor than the K rate in difference between the two in DP rate.

Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
2 months ago  ::  Aug 09, 2021 - 5:54PM #43
Jon
Posts: 4,824

Aug 9, 2021 -- 3:41PM, qwik3457 wrote:


Aug 9, 2021 -- 8:49AM, Jon wrote:


Aug 6, 2021 -- 1:01PM, qwik3457 wrote:


Aug 2, 2021 -- 3:54PM, Jon wrote:

All the Cubs who were traded HRed their first game. A lot of change of scenery needed. Gallo will be fine. He's a. 240-.250 avg hitter, but most importantly he's an OF glove.



He also hits into very few double plays, because he's left-handed, has above-average speed, seems to hustle all the time, and has one of the lowest ground-ball rates in the major leagues (2nd lowest Ground ball to fly ball ratio among all batters from 2015 to 2021, only Hoskins on the Phillies has a lower ratio among 198 hitters with at least 2000 PA in those years).





No. He doesn't GIDP BECAUSE HE STRIKES OUT ALMOST 40% OF THE TIME.



At bats: 1863


Hits: 391


Strikeouts: 815




Let's take Aaron Judge as a measuring stick.


Gallo has batted in 385 PA in which a GIDP was possible. Judge has 504 such PA. Gallo has hit into 9 GIDP, Judge has hit into 54. Gallo has K'd in 131 of those PA, Judge in 133 of them. That means 254 other outs for Gallo, and 371 for Judge. By their career air outs vs. ground outs ratios, that means 99 groundouts by Gallo in GIDP plate appearances, and 196 for Judge.  So Judge has 47% more balls in play in GIDP situations, but almost twice as many ground balls in play. Add in the fact that although Gallo's career exit velocity is 93, Judge's is 95. So Judge has had many more opportunites in GIDP AB, and hits the ball harder, and is right handed, and has hit almost twice as many ground balls in those situations.


Strikeout rate is a part of it. Strikout rate per PA in those situations is 34% for Gallo, and just 26% for Judge. Opportunities is also part of it. Judge has had 30% more GIDP opportunties than Gallo. That's a sizable part of the difference. But hitting twice as many grounders (as well as probably hitting them slightly harder, on average), is probably a bigger part than either of those, nearly as big as those two together. 


A relative 25% or so higher K rate in GIDP situations doesn't remotely begin to account for Judge having 6 times as many DPs as Gallo, in almost the same number of career plate appearances. 30% more GIDP opportunites and 26% fewer K is about half the difference, and 97% more groundballs makes up the other half. The number of groundballs hit MUST be a larger factor than the K rate in difference between the two in DP rate.




It's hard to GIDP when you also have a long, uppercut swing or walk.


20 years ago, Gallo would have never been called up til he fixed his swing.

2 months ago  ::  Aug 09, 2021 - 8:09PM #44
qwik3457
Posts: 12,492

Aug 9, 2021 -- 5:54PM, Jon wrote:


It's hard to GIDP when you also have a long, uppercut swing or walk.


20 years ago, Gallo would have never been called up til he fixed his swing.



It's certainly much harder.


As for 20 years ago, I remember this guy was called up almost 40 years ago, and hung around long enough to hit 230 HR and knock in 600 runs. Very similar player, in fact. Had more double plays because he batted right handed, probably. Slightly lower K rate because pitchers didn't throw hard for 5-6 innings and leave, turning the game over to relievers who all try much harder to strike guys out than they did 40 years ago:


www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dee...

Knowledge is Good -- Emil Faber
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