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2022 payroll reality check
3 months ago  ::  Oct 15, 2021 - 11:49AM #11
bruner4329
Posts: 4,332

Oct 14, 2021 -- 10:24PM, Paterson wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 7:48PM, bumper wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 7:20PM, Paterson wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 4:51PM, bumper wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:31PM, Hobbs wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:07PM, 1955nyyfan wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:03PM, bumper wrote:


this season's payroll restrictions was about 2 things. one was to reset the LT. mission accomplished. two, was covid. fans don't wanna hear it but they lost a lot of money due to no fans last year and with more uncertainity again & full capacity not allowed until mid-june, they tempered their spending this year.


with the LT reset and back to normal seating, we should see them spend more. contrary to popular "thought", hal wants a winner. like it or not, he spent buckets on stanton and 2 years ago, even more ridiculous money on cole. as misguided as it turned out, both of those moves were supposed to bring a championship. last year he signed DJ. he spends. don't think he's gonna go crazy because seeing what the rays do with a third of the money has to drive him crazy.




agree, plus there is a lot of money tied up in Gallo  Sanchez and Voit. Who knows if any or all of them will be back. 




So we agree Hal won't go crazy with the spending, then how are we going to improve when were already sitting at 220 million?


It has to be mostly thru trades right. Unless you dump some contracts to clear space for a free agent.




i did say "we should see them spend more", just don't think he'd go $300 mil crazy. it's been proven, spending like crazy doesn't solve anything other than placate an entitled fan base. think we could see $240-50 mil. that should be more than enough along with some smart trading and getting rid of the dead wood. and if it takes more than a season to get there, so be it. rather see a team built to last and self-sustaining like the astros or rays rather than a band-aid.


  




    The problem is that the LT rate increases each year you stay over the cap. When you sign or take on super long deals, time is not your ally.  



realize that. they reset it a few years ago only to blast through it. perhaps he'll do it again. as i said, this year there were extenuating circumstances due to covid.


if i owned a team, paying an LT tax that supports small market teams who then go on to beat me would drive me crazy. there's a way to do this w/o signing the most expensive players every year by having a constant stream of talent in the system that you then augment w smart FA signings. it's not a short term fix and hasn't been the yankee way but if they just go and band-aid it by signing semien, marte etc, they're just kicking the can down the road.




    Cashman played his hand when he signed Cole to that MEGA deal. He does not have much room to sign a big free agent if he hopes to keep Judge after '21. The next bargaining agreement could change the landscape, but right now the Yankees are not in a good position salary wise. 


    




Signing Cole has nothing to do with Judge. The Yanks needed a star pitcher to add to the rotation. It was a big need. Where he played his hand was trading for Stanton. That plays big into Judge's contract and bringing in some help. Listen Stanton played well this past year and in reality would not be as big an issue if we did not have Hicks' contract and fact he has loaded this team with righty bats.

3 months ago  ::  Oct 15, 2021 - 12:02PM #12
Paterson
Posts: 7,379

Oct 15, 2021 -- 11:49AM, bruner4329 wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 10:24PM, Paterson wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 7:48PM, bumper wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 7:20PM, Paterson wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 4:51PM, bumper wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:31PM, Hobbs wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:07PM, 1955nyyfan wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:03PM, bumper wrote:


this season's payroll restrictions was about 2 things. one was to reset the LT. mission accomplished. two, was covid. fans don't wanna hear it but they lost a lot of money due to no fans last year and with more uncertainity again & full capacity not allowed until mid-june, they tempered their spending this year.


with the LT reset and back to normal seating, we should see them spend more. contrary to popular "thought", hal wants a winner. like it or not, he spent buckets on stanton and 2 years ago, even more ridiculous money on cole. as misguided as it turned out, both of those moves were supposed to bring a championship. last year he signed DJ. he spends. don't think he's gonna go crazy because seeing what the rays do with a third of the money has to drive him crazy.




agree, plus there is a lot of money tied up in Gallo  Sanchez and Voit. Who knows if any or all of them will be back. 




So we agree Hal won't go crazy with the spending, then how are we going to improve when were already sitting at 220 million?


It has to be mostly thru trades right. Unless you dump some contracts to clear space for a free agent.




i did say "we should see them spend more", just don't think he'd go $300 mil crazy. it's been proven, spending like crazy doesn't solve anything other than placate an entitled fan base. think we could see $240-50 mil. that should be more than enough along with some smart trading and getting rid of the dead wood. and if it takes more than a season to get there, so be it. rather see a team built to last and self-sustaining like the astros or rays rather than a band-aid.


  




    The problem is that the LT rate increases each year you stay over the cap. When you sign or take on super long deals, time is not your ally.  



realize that. they reset it a few years ago only to blast through it. perhaps he'll do it again. as i said, this year there were extenuating circumstances due to covid.


if i owned a team, paying an LT tax that supports small market teams who then go on to beat me would drive me crazy. there's a way to do this w/o signing the most expensive players every year by having a constant stream of talent in the system that you then augment w smart FA signings. it's not a short term fix and hasn't been the yankee way but if they just go and band-aid it by signing semien, marte etc, they're just kicking the can down the road.




    Cashman played his hand when he signed Cole to that MEGA deal. He does not have much room to sign a big free agent if he hopes to keep Judge after '21. The next bargaining agreement could change the landscape, but right now the Yankees are not in a good position salary wise. 


    




Signing Cole has nothing to do with Judge. The Yanks needed a star pitcher to add to the rotation. It was a big need. Where he played his hand was trading for Stanton. That plays big into Judge's contract and bringing in some help. Listen Stanton played well this past year and in reality would not be as big an issue if we did not have Hicks' contract and fact he has loaded this team with righty bats.




  I did not like the Stanton deal but his cap hit is "only" 22 M. That is a lot of money for a DH, but it pales when compared to the hit the Yankees take on the Cole contract. Cole alone accounted for 16% of the payroll in 2022. Cole's salary for tax purposes is $36 M, Stanton's is $22. My figures are from:


www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-yankees/pay...

3 months ago  ::  Oct 15, 2021 - 12:09PM #13
bruner4329
Posts: 4,332

Oct 15, 2021 -- 12:02PM, Paterson wrote:


Oct 15, 2021 -- 11:49AM, bruner4329 wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 10:24PM, Paterson wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 7:48PM, bumper wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 7:20PM, Paterson wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 4:51PM, bumper wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:31PM, Hobbs wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:07PM, 1955nyyfan wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:03PM, bumper wrote:


this season's payroll restrictions was about 2 things. one was to reset the LT. mission accomplished. two, was covid. fans don't wanna hear it but they lost a lot of money due to no fans last year and with more uncertainity again & full capacity not allowed until mid-june, they tempered their spending this year.


with the LT reset and back to normal seating, we should see them spend more. contrary to popular "thought", hal wants a winner. like it or not, he spent buckets on stanton and 2 years ago, even more ridiculous money on cole. as misguided as it turned out, both of those moves were supposed to bring a championship. last year he signed DJ. he spends. don't think he's gonna go crazy because seeing what the rays do with a third of the money has to drive him crazy.




agree, plus there is a lot of money tied up in Gallo  Sanchez and Voit. Who knows if any or all of them will be back. 




So we agree Hal won't go crazy with the spending, then how are we going to improve when were already sitting at 220 million?


It has to be mostly thru trades right. Unless you dump some contracts to clear space for a free agent.




i did say "we should see them spend more", just don't think he'd go $300 mil crazy. it's been proven, spending like crazy doesn't solve anything other than placate an entitled fan base. think we could see $240-50 mil. that should be more than enough along with some smart trading and getting rid of the dead wood. and if it takes more than a season to get there, so be it. rather see a team built to last and self-sustaining like the astros or rays rather than a band-aid.


  




    The problem is that the LT rate increases each year you stay over the cap. When you sign or take on super long deals, time is not your ally.  



realize that. they reset it a few years ago only to blast through it. perhaps he'll do it again. as i said, this year there were extenuating circumstances due to covid.


if i owned a team, paying an LT tax that supports small market teams who then go on to beat me would drive me crazy. there's a way to do this w/o signing the most expensive players every year by having a constant stream of talent in the system that you then augment w smart FA signings. it's not a short term fix and hasn't been the yankee way but if they just go and band-aid it by signing semien, marte etc, they're just kicking the can down the road.




    Cashman played his hand when he signed Cole to that MEGA deal. He does not have much room to sign a big free agent if he hopes to keep Judge after '21. The next bargaining agreement could change the landscape, but right now the Yankees are not in a good position salary wise. 


    




Signing Cole has nothing to do with Judge. The Yanks needed a star pitcher to add to the rotation. It was a big need. Where he played his hand was trading for Stanton. That plays big into Judge's contract and bringing in some help. Listen Stanton played well this past year and in reality would not be as big an issue if we did not have Hicks' contract and fact he has loaded this team with righty bats.




  I did not like the Stanton deal but his cap hit is "only" 22 M. That is a lot of money for a DH, but it pales when compared to the hit the Yankees take on the Cole contract. Cole alone accounted for 16% of the payroll in 2022. Cole's salary for tax purposes is $36 M, Stanton's is $22. My figures are from:


www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-yankees/pay...




I am not questioning the dollars I was questioning the need. We needed a pitcher like Cole or if not him someone at that level. We had to pay. Stanton at the time was a luxery and to some extent still is. You  can probably get 2 players for the price of Stanton to fill CF and LF 2 areas of needs. That is my point. Add in fact Hicks; is earning $10 million per year. So forget Cole who fills a huge need. Imagine what you could do with $32 million (Stanton + Hicks) to fill Holes at LF, CF at a minimum and maybe even 1B. A 3 for 1 swap on a team with needs is critical. Its a moot point since Stanton aint going anywhere but in terms of dollar reallocations that is the correct comp.

3 months ago  ::  Oct 15, 2021 - 12:26PM #14
Paterson
Posts: 7,379

Oct 15, 2021 -- 12:09PM, bruner4329 wrote:


Oct 15, 2021 -- 12:02PM, Paterson wrote:


Oct 15, 2021 -- 11:49AM, bruner4329 wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 10:24PM, Paterson wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 7:48PM, bumper wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 7:20PM, Paterson wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 4:51PM, bumper wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:31PM, Hobbs wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:07PM, 1955nyyfan wrote:


Oct 14, 2021 -- 3:03PM, bumper wrote:


this season's payroll restrictions was about 2 things. one was to reset the LT. mission accomplished. two, was covid. fans don't wanna hear it but they lost a lot of money due to no fans last year and with more uncertainity again & full capacity not allowed until mid-june, they tempered their spending this year.


with the LT reset and back to normal seating, we should see them spend more. contrary to popular "thought", hal wants a winner. like it or not, he spent buckets on stanton and 2 years ago, even more ridiculous money on cole. as misguided as it turned out, both of those moves were supposed to bring a championship. last year he signed DJ. he spends. don't think he's gonna go crazy because seeing what the rays do with a third of the money has to drive him crazy.




agree, plus there is a lot of money tied up in Gallo  Sanchez and Voit. Who knows if any or all of them will be back. 




So we agree Hal won't go crazy with the spending, then how are we going to improve when were already sitting at 220 million?


It has to be mostly thru trades right. Unless you dump some contracts to clear space for a free agent.




i did say "we should see them spend more", just don't think he'd go $300 mil crazy. it's been proven, spending like crazy doesn't solve anything other than placate an entitled fan base. think we could see $240-50 mil. that should be more than enough along with some smart trading and getting rid of the dead wood. and if it takes more than a season to get there, so be it. rather see a team built to last and self-sustaining like the astros or rays rather than a band-aid.


  




    The problem is that the LT rate increases each year you stay over the cap. When you sign or take on super long deals, time is not your ally.  



realize that. they reset it a few years ago only to blast through it. perhaps he'll do it again. as i said, this year there were extenuating circumstances due to covid.


if i owned a team, paying an LT tax that supports small market teams who then go on to beat me would drive me crazy. there's a way to do this w/o signing the most expensive players every year by having a constant stream of talent in the system that you then augment w smart FA signings. it's not a short term fix and hasn't been the yankee way but if they just go and band-aid it by signing semien, marte etc, they're just kicking the can down the road.




    Cashman played his hand when he signed Cole to that MEGA deal. He does not have much room to sign a big free agent if he hopes to keep Judge after '21. The next bargaining agreement could change the landscape, but right now the Yankees are not in a good position salary wise. 


    




Signing Cole has nothing to do with Judge. The Yanks needed a star pitcher to add to the rotation. It was a big need. Where he played his hand was trading for Stanton. That plays big into Judge's contract and bringing in some help. Listen Stanton played well this past year and in reality would not be as big an issue if we did not have Hicks' contract and fact he has loaded this team with righty bats.




  I did not like the Stanton deal but his cap hit is "only" 22 M. That is a lot of money for a DH, but it pales when compared to the hit the Yankees take on the Cole contract. Cole alone accounted for 16% of the payroll in 2022. Cole's salary for tax purposes is $36 M, Stanton's is $22. My figures are from:


www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-yankees/pay...




I am not questioning the dollars I was questioning the need. We needed a pitcher like Cole or if not him someone at that level. We had to pay. Stanton at the time was a luxery and to some extent still is. You  can probably get 2 players for the price of Stanton to fill CF and LF 2 areas of needs. That is my point. Add in fact Hicks; is earning $10 million per year. So forget Cole who fills a huge need. Imagine what you could do with $32 million (Stanton + Hicks) to fill Holes at LF, CF at a minimum and maybe even 1B. A 3 for 1 swap on a team with needs is critical. Its a moot point since Stanton aint going anywhere but in terms of dollar reallocations that is the correct comp.




    I never thought the Yankees needed Cole that much. He is a good pitcher who had a great run. Obviously the Astros are  carrying on without him as the Red Sox are sans Sale. Guys have great years but you cannot sign a guy to a long term deal thinking he will repeat that career season many more times. It does not happen. 


    Cole had a couple of years where he was worth $36 M. None were with the Yankees. I hate that deal. 


    

3 months ago  ::  Oct 15, 2021 - 12:34PM #15
1955nyyfan
Posts: 2,935

Signing Cole, IMO was a necessary because of our failure to develop top of the rotation pitching within our own organization. We've had some minor successes, but not at the level needed to sustain a playoff level team. It was a bit unlucky Severino got hurt because for awhile, he looked like that guy.  As I've watched the playoffs, I'm seeing a lot of young top of the rotation pitchers that were developed inhouse or acquired by smart trades. The Yankee model of plugging holes by continually signing FAs leads to payroll inflexibilty. That is why, how we approach this offseason will be very interesting to me  for a couple of reasons. By all accounts, we have a couple SS prospects who have MLB talent but are both at least a year away. The SS FA market contains several SS with proven track records but will be expensive. I'll be very dissapointed if we sign a FA SS to a long term, expensive contract. I'd rather play Wade or sign a stop gap and wait on one of the kids. 


The other interesting decision at least for me revolves around the OF. Bringing Gallo back to me would signal we are comfortable with swing and miss guys as long as they hit enough HRs. This approach trickles down throughout the lineup and you see guys with average power lose plate discipline as they try to hit more long balls. I'd rather see Stanton play more LF next year and see if we could acquire a good CFer through a trade. I'd rather see Florial playing regularly than Gallo but I'm still not sure Florial is an every day player. Maybe he fills the role as a 4th Ofer. Oh, and as for Hicks, I wouldn't count on him at all. I'd try really hard  to unload him but if that is not possible, I wouldn't guarantee him a roster spot. 


As I said in another post, it's dissapointing to me so much of the young talent that hit made their mark in the 2017 season have regressed. And, it's almost like we hit pause as we have not added quality young players regularly since then. Almost as if we signaled "mission accomplished" and thought we had our roster for years to come. Many of the good teams are adding young talent every year. I know it's easier said than done, but that's the approach I'm hoping for. Anyway, a lot of rambling thoughst on how to approach an offseason that will be both important and interesting. 

3 months ago  ::  Oct 15, 2021 - 1:12PM #16
bumper
Posts: 10,567

Oct 15, 2021 -- 12:34PM, 1955nyyfan wrote:


Signing Cole, IMO was a necessary because of our failure to develop top of the rotation pitching within our own organization. We've had some minor successes, but not at the level needed to sustain a playoff level team. It was a bit unlucky Severino got hurt because for awhile, he looked like that guy.  As I've watched the playoffs, I'm seeing a lot of young top of the rotation pitchers that were developed inhouse or acquired by smart trades. The Yankee model of plugging holes by continually signing FAs leads to payroll inflexibilty. That is why, how we approach this offseason will be very interesting to me  for a couple of reasons. By all accounts, we have a couple SS prospects who have MLB talent but are both at least a year away. The SS FA market contains several SS with proven track records but will be expensive. I'll be very dissapointed if we sign a FA SS to a long term, expensive contract. I'd rather play Wade or sign a stop gap and wait on one of the kids. 


The other interesting decision at least for me revolves around the OF. Bringing Gallo back to me would signal we are comfortable with swing and miss guys as long as they hit enough HRs. This approach trickles down throughout the lineup and you see guys with average power lose plate discipline as they try to hit more long balls. I'd rather see Stanton play more LF next year and see if we could acquire a good CFer through a trade. I'd rather see Florial playing regularly than Gallo but I'm still not sure Florial is an every day player. Maybe he fills the role as a 4th Ofer. Oh, and as for Hicks, I wouldn't count on him at all. I'd try really hard  to unload him but if that is not possible, I wouldn't guarantee him a roster spot. 


As I said in another post, it's dissapointing to me so much of the young talent that hit made their mark in the 2017 season have regressed. And, it's almost like we hit pause as we have not added quality young players regularly since then. Almost as if we signaled "mission accomplished" and thought we had our roster for years to come. Many of the good teams are adding young talent every year. I know it's easier said than done, but that's the approach I'm hoping for. Anyway, a lot of rambling thoughst on how to approach an offseason that will be both important and interesting. 




agreed with the cole signing at the time. thought he was the missing link. hasn't worked out that way so far. if he turns out to be a max scherzer, then it was a success. the other side of the coin is that it could turn into a david price type situation. hope not.


your point about plugging holes with signing of FAs is spot on. instead of trying to build a team around free agents, you have a steady pipeline of young players, then you sign that FA as that last piece to put you over the top. that was sorta the model of the late 90's teams.


and yeah where has all that young talent gone. other than judge, everyone has regressed significantly. remember when pitchers couldn't get sanchez, andujar or gleyber out.

3 months ago  ::  Oct 15, 2021 - 1:19PM #17
Jon
Posts: 5,042

The reality is that Steinbrenner cares too much about the luxury tax and not enough about putting a good team on the field.

3 months ago  ::  Oct 15, 2021 - 1:19PM #18
Jon
Posts: 5,042

Oct 15, 2021 -- 1:12PM, bumper wrote:


Oct 15, 2021 -- 12:34PM, 1955nyyfan wrote:


Signing Cole, IMO was a necessary because of our failure to develop top of the rotation pitching within our own organization. We've had some minor successes, but not at the level needed to sustain a playoff level team. It was a bit unlucky Severino got hurt because for awhile, he looked like that guy.  As I've watched the playoffs, I'm seeing a lot of young top of the rotation pitchers that were developed inhouse or acquired by smart trades. The Yankee model of plugging holes by continually signing FAs leads to payroll inflexibilty. That is why, how we approach this offseason will be very interesting to me  for a couple of reasons. By all accounts, we have a couple SS prospects who have MLB talent but are both at least a year away. The SS FA market contains several SS with proven track records but will be expensive. I'll be very dissapointed if we sign a FA SS to a long term, expensive contract. I'd rather play Wade or sign a stop gap and wait on one of the kids. 


The other interesting decision at least for me revolves around the OF. Bringing Gallo back to me would signal we are comfortable with swing and miss guys as long as they hit enough HRs. This approach trickles down throughout the lineup and you see guys with average power lose plate discipline as they try to hit more long balls. I'd rather see Stanton play more LF next year and see if we could acquire a good CFer through a trade. I'd rather see Florial playing regularly than Gallo but I'm still not sure Florial is an every day player. Maybe he fills the role as a 4th Ofer. Oh, and as for Hicks, I wouldn't count on him at all. I'd try really hard  to unload him but if that is not possible, I wouldn't guarantee him a roster spot. 


As I said in another post, it's dissapointing to me so much of the young talent that hit made their mark in the 2017 season have regressed. And, it's almost like we hit pause as we have not added quality young players regularly since then. Almost as if we signaled "mission accomplished" and thought we had our roster for years to come. Many of the good teams are adding young talent every year. I know it's easier said than done, but that's the approach I'm hoping for. Anyway, a lot of rambling thoughst on how to approach an offseason that will be both important and interesting. 




agreed with the cole signing at the time. thought he was the missing link. hasn't worked out that way so far. if he turns out to be a max scherzer, then it was a success. the other side of the coin is that it could turn into a david price type situation. hope not.


your point about plugging holes with signing of FAs is spot on. instead of trying to build a team around free agents, you have a steady pipeline of young players, then you sign that FA as that last piece to put you over the top. that was sorta the model of the late 90's teams.


and yeah where has all that young talent gone. other than judge, everyone has regressed significantly. remember when pitchers couldn't get sanchez, andujar or gleyber out.




You do know Cole played injured since the 15 K game and should NEVER have started the WC game, right? Or did you forget how he did in the 2020 playoffs?

3 months ago  ::  Oct 15, 2021 - 1:30PM #19
luvdayanks
Posts: 30,748

Oct 15, 2021 -- 1:19PM, Jon wrote:


The reality is that Steinbrenner cares too much about the luxury tax and not enough about putting a good team on the field.




It's called running a business, something you would know very little about.

3 months ago  ::  Oct 15, 2021 - 2:12PM #20
bumper
Posts: 10,567

Oct 15, 2021 -- 1:19PM, Jon wrote:


The reality is that Steinbrenner cares too much about the luxury tax and not enough about putting a good team on the field.




the reality is that other than the dodgers, all the other teams in the post-season are under (some significantly) the LT.


your solution is to spend, spend, spend. that's just kicking the can down the road. we need to go back the philsophy of the 90's teams, where you develop a core of good young players and then you fill in the gaps by spending. you develop a system where you have a continuous pipeline of young, athletic players. that's how you win. not by plugging holes with the most expensive free agents you can find.


and please don't tell me you were one of those chumps who bought into george's catch phrase/marketing slogan. damn you were taken LaughingLaughingLaughing

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