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HOF Ballot
2 weeks ago  ::  Nov 25, 2021 - 8:06PM #21
newinn
Posts: 38,002

Nov 25, 2021 -- 12:42AM, dixieyank wrote:


Schilling, while I loathe him, is going to get in. And by their evolving standards, he should.


Gone are the stricter standards IMO. 


The more interesting thing this year will be if they let Clemens, Sosa, and Bonds time out. This is the year. Do they actually make the hard stand, or do they waver?




I agree with everything in your post Dixie.

2 weeks ago  ::  Nov 25, 2021 - 9:31PM #22
davis2
Posts: 19,155

Nov 24, 2021 -- 7:29PM, Giancarlo wrote:


Nov 24, 2021 -- 6:44PM, qwik3457 wrote:


On the merits of his career, Schilling's case for inclusion in the Hall is an excellent one.


Breaking this question down the way I always do...


Of four metrics used for measuring a Hall of Fame case, Schilling is well above the average Hall of Fame member (those pitchers already in the Hall) on the Hall of Fame Monitor, and slightly above the average HOF member on the Black Ink and Grey Ink Tests. He's slightly below the average HOF member on the Hall of Fame Standards metric.


The JAWS system rates him as more or less equal to the average current Hall of Fame Pitcher, slightly above average on JAWS, S-JAWS and WAR/162 games, and slightly below the average Hall of Fame pitcher in the 7-year peak indicator.


The strongest indicator he belongs in the hall is that he has the 21st highest bWAR among starting pitchers in major league history. The only pitcher above Schilling on that list not in the Hall is Roger Clemens (for obvious reasons), the three pitchers below him are also in Hall, and the three pitchers below that are Verlander, Kershaw and Greinke. Verlander and Kershaw are pretty much locks to make the Hall, and Greinke has a solid case, if not as solid as Schilling's. Below those three are four pitchers, three of which are already in the Hall, and the fourth is Scherzer, who is very likely to be a Hall of Famer. Considering the bWAR number, it would be very unusual if Schilling did not make the Hall.


Another thing I look at is how many of the top ten pitches with the highest similarity score are already in the Hall. This is probaly the worst credential for Schilling's case. Of his top 10 similar pitchers, only John Smoltz is in the Hall, and his career as a starter was interrupted by a bunch of seasons serving as the Braves' closer. However, Justin Verlander is his #4 comp, and he's very likely going into the Hall. Zack Greinke, Schilling's top similarity comp, is likely to make it eventually in my opinion. (Greinke's top 10 similar pitchers has 3 current Hall of Famers, with Schilling and Verlander as his #1 and #2 most similar also likely to go in.)


All of the above would give Schilling an above-average shot of making the Hall, but what really sells his case is that he has one of the greatest post-season records of any starter in MLB history: 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 19 starts, nearly a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio, and just one HR every 11 innings...


...against only good and great teams. Only 3 times in those 19 starts did he allow more than 2 earned runs; in 13 of the 19, he went at least seven innings and allowed 2 runs (three times), 1 run (seven times) or 0 runs (three times). The only accurate way to describe this is: dominant pitching against the toughest competition for the highest stakes.


To me, that's enough. I wouldn't call his career "inner circle", but he's more than qualified for the Hall. Having said that, considering his more than checkered post-career, I'm not entirely sure the current generation of voters will gve him the last 3.9% of the vote he needs to get in. It will be  interesting to find out. We shall see.




JAWS is also a good metric.   I have no problem with Halladay being in the HOF, in fact I think he absolutely belongs.   Schillings JAWS is a 64 to Halladay's 57.4.   And his post season numbers are amazing - an ERA a full run better than his regular season mark.   Almost Mariano-like.


But I think you have to add in that he pitched for the curse-breaking Red Sox team as a part of that great post season resume.   That run was larger than life.   The Bloody Sock game is the kind of thing that baseball fame is all about.


The stats and the intangibles all say he should be in the HOF.  He's not Walter Johnson or Greg Maddux, but he's a HOF'er.   Maybe not a slam dunk, 1st ballot guy.   But he should get in for sure and should not have been on the ballot for 10 years.



Schilling was our archenemy with Arizona and the Sux. I'll take qwik's opinion as the surest thing. He is "Big Guy" good, and also on the respect meter. I also like how he went by on-field performance, and not the controversy or politics surrounding Schilling... Just by the signifigance of 2004, like it or not, he should get extra consideration. His numbers would be better if his Philly teams were better.

2 weeks ago  ::  Nov 27, 2021 - 7:26AM #23
Giancarlo
Posts: 273

Nov 25, 2021 -- 9:31PM, davis2 wrote:


Nov 24, 2021 -- 7:29PM, Giancarlo wrote:


Nov 24, 2021 -- 6:44PM, qwik3457 wrote:


On the merits of his career, Schilling's case for inclusion in the Hall is an excellent one.


Breaking this question down the way I always do...


Of four metrics used for measuring a Hall of Fame case, Schilling is well above the average Hall of Fame member (those pitchers already in the Hall) on the Hall of Fame Monitor, and slightly above the average HOF member on the Black Ink and Grey Ink Tests. He's slightly below the average HOF member on the Hall of Fame Standards metric.


The JAWS system rates him as more or less equal to the average current Hall of Fame Pitcher, slightly above average on JAWS, S-JAWS and WAR/162 games, and slightly below the average Hall of Fame pitcher in the 7-year peak indicator.


The strongest indicator he belongs in the hall is that he has the 21st highest bWAR among starting pitchers in major league history. The only pitcher above Schilling on that list not in the Hall is Roger Clemens (for obvious reasons), the three pitchers below him are also in Hall, and the three pitchers below that are Verlander, Kershaw and Greinke. Verlander and Kershaw are pretty much locks to make the Hall, and Greinke has a solid case, if not as solid as Schilling's. Below those three are four pitchers, three of which are already in the Hall, and the fourth is Scherzer, who is very likely to be a Hall of Famer. Considering the bWAR number, it would be very unusual if Schilling did not make the Hall.


Another thing I look at is how many of the top ten pitches with the highest similarity score are already in the Hall. This is probaly the worst credential for Schilling's case. Of his top 10 similar pitchers, only John Smoltz is in the Hall, and his career as a starter was interrupted by a bunch of seasons serving as the Braves' closer. However, Justin Verlander is his #4 comp, and he's very likely going into the Hall. Zack Greinke, Schilling's top similarity comp, is likely to make it eventually in my opinion. (Greinke's top 10 similar pitchers has 3 current Hall of Famers, with Schilling and Verlander as his #1 and #2 most similar also likely to go in.)


All of the above would give Schilling an above-average shot of making the Hall, but what really sells his case is that he has one of the greatest post-season records of any starter in MLB history: 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 19 starts, nearly a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio, and just one HR every 11 innings...


...against only good and great teams. Only 3 times in those 19 starts did he allow more than 2 earned runs; in 13 of the 19, he went at least seven innings and allowed 2 runs (three times), 1 run (seven times) or 0 runs (three times). The only accurate way to describe this is: dominant pitching against the toughest competition for the highest stakes.


To me, that's enough. I wouldn't call his career "inner circle", but he's more than qualified for the Hall. Having said that, considering his more than checkered post-career, I'm not entirely sure the current generation of voters will gve him the last 3.9% of the vote he needs to get in. It will be  interesting to find out. We shall see.




JAWS is also a good metric.   I have no problem with Halladay being in the HOF, in fact I think he absolutely belongs.   Schillings JAWS is a 64 to Halladay's 57.4.   And his post season numbers are amazing - an ERA a full run better than his regular season mark.   Almost Mariano-like.


But I think you have to add in that he pitched for the curse-breaking Red Sox team as a part of that great post season resume.   That run was larger than life.   The Bloody Sock game is the kind of thing that baseball fame is all about.


The stats and the intangibles all say he should be in the HOF.  He's not Walter Johnson or Greg Maddux, but he's a HOF'er.   Maybe not a slam dunk, 1st ballot guy.   But he should get in for sure and should not have been on the ballot for 10 years.



Schilling was our archenemy with Arizona and the Sux. I'll take qwik's opinion as the surest thing. He is "Big Guy" good, and also on the respect meter. I also like how he went by on-field performance, and not the controversy or politics surrounding Schilling... Just by the signifigance of 2004, like it or not, he should get extra consideration. His numbers would be better if his Philly teams were better.




I think at least everyone is saying Schilling should be in, any political differences aside.   Well maybe not Bob, but he's too shy to really say what he thinks about him.


He will eventually get in like Morris did if he's not voted in, but the stats and his post season record say he should have been voted in years ago.

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