Yankees need to be all in if the Nats are willing to deal Soto.
The return would probably sting, but just imagine a LH bat like that being added to the lineup. And he'd be insurance in case Judge were to depart as a free agent.
Because Volpe, Peraza and Dominguez are all off to very poor starts this season, the Yanks probably can't match other teams top prospects and get Soto.
However, keeping in mind:
1) Soto is the best left-handed hitter in all of MLB, a truly elite hitter who dictates at bats to even the best pitchers
2) That an elite left-handed hitter than can play the outfield and bat 3rd in the order is something the Yankees desperately need to balance their lineup
3) That he's only 23
5) That he has a history of not getting seriously injured, at least so far
6) That he's under team control until the end of the 2024 season,
7) And he helped the Nationals take down a World Series title in his second season.
A trade for Soto might look like this:
1) Gleyber Torres and Jordan Montgomery or Nestor Cortes (because the Yankees have no Alex Verdugo to put in the deal at the moment)
2) Volpe (assuming the Nats like him better than Peraza)
3) Dominguez, whose value has plummeted since he started playing in the minors
4) Waldichuk
5) King
6) Florial (just to give them a passable body to play the outfield, one who might still turn into a viable regular).
7) Luis Medina
And these 8 players will not even match the marginal value than Soto alone is worth, right now. Right now, Soto is worth about $200 million plus in marginal value. Putting the best possible face on the 8 players I've put in the deal from the Yankee side, these eight players might be worth about $150 million in marginal value.
I know it seems absurd that a package like this might not be enough to get Soto, but Soto is, right now, a 7 WAR player (worth about $50-60 million a year in marginal value) being paid like a 2-4 WAR player over the next three seasons. As such, just for 2022, 2023 and 2024, alone, assuming the trade happens at the dealine, his surplus value will be something like $15 million for the remainder of 2022, $34 million for all of 2023, and $24 million for all of 2024. Then, assuming he just continues to hit like he has so far, and doesn't improve for the next 2-3 seasons as he should, his salary will be at least $40 million a year, and his marginal value drops to about $15 million a year, until he starts to age out of his prime somewhere between 28 and 32.
The truth is that compared to the state of other teams' farm systems (like the Rays or the Tigers or the Orioles or the Blue Jays, who all have multiple players in their farms or recently promoted who have scouting grades of 55 or better; the Yanks have NONE of those right now, what they have is a ton of guys in the lower levels who are grades 35+ or 40, and some have the potential to become grade 50 or better, but aren't close yet.
Right now, anyone still reading thinks I'm crazy, but that's the reality of the Yanks trying to trade for Soto. Even if they threw Judge back to keep say, King and one of the prospects who is not Volpe out of it (and for what reason would the Nats possibly take Judge; he's 7 years older, not as good a hitter, and has 2 years less team control. It just moves the Nats' Soto problem two years ahead its currently scheduled arrival),
I don't see how they put together a package that couldn't be topped by the Rays, who would likely be willing to keep Soto through the 2024 season and let him go instead of signing him to Boras' $500 million deal. For example, the Rays could started with Josh Lowe, Shane Baz and Vidal Brujan all 50 grade prospects and higher, all of whom are major league ready right now. Throw in Arozarena for a current major league outfielder, and you have a total of about $180 million in marginal value, about what Soto alone is worth.
The Yanks might desire Soto and need Soto as much as any team in MLB, I just don't see how they pull it off.
Because Volpe, Peraza and Dominguez are all off to very poor starts this season, the Yanks probably can't match other teams top prospects and get Soto.
However, keeping in mind:
1) Soto is the best left-handed hitter in all of MLB, a truly elite hitter who dictates at bats to even the best pitchers
2) That an elite left-handed hitter than can play the outfield and bat 3rd in the order is something the Yankees desperately need to balance their lineup
3) That he's only 23
5) That he has a history of not getting seriously injured, at least so far
6) That he's under team control until the end of the 2024 season,
7) And he helped the Nationals take down a World Series title in his second season.
A trade for Soto might look like this:
1) Gleyber Torres and Jordan Montgomery or Nestor Cortes (because the Yankees have no Alex Verdugo to put in the deal at the moment)
2) Volpe (assuming the Nats like him better than Peraza)
3) Dominguez, whose value has plummeted since he started playing in the minors
4) Waldichuk
5) King
6) Florial (just to give them a passable body to play the outfield, one who might still turn into a viable regular).
7) Luis Medina
And these 8 players will not even match the marginal value than Soto alone is worth, right now. Right now, Soto is worth about $200 million plus in marginal value. Putting the best possible face on the 8 players I've put in the deal from the Yankee side, these eight players might be worth about $150 million in marginal value.
I know it seems absurd that a package like this might not be enough to get Soto, but Soto is, right now, a 7 WAR player (worth about $50-60 million a year in marginal value) being paid like a 2-4 WAR player over the next three seasons. As such, just for 2022, 2023 and 2024, alone, assuming the trade happens at the dealine, his surplus value will be something like $15 million for the remainder of 2022, $34 million for all of 2023, and $24 million for all of 2024. Then, assuming he just continues to hit like he has so far, and doesn't improve for the next 2-3 seasons as he should, his salary will be at least $40 million a year, and his marginal value drops to about $15 million a year, until he starts to age out of his prime somewhere between 28 and 32.
The truth is that compared to the state of other teams' farm systems (like the Rays or the Tigers or the Orioles or the Blue Jays, who all have multiple players in their farms or recently promoted who have scouting grades of 55 or better; the Yanks have NONE of those right now, what they have is a ton of guys in the lower levels who are grades 35+ or 40, and some have the potential to become grade 50 or better, but aren't close yet.
Right now, anyone still reading thinks I'm crazy, but that's the reality of the Yanks trying to trade for Soto. Even if they threw Judge back to keep say, King and one of the prospects who is not Volpe out of it (and for what reason would the Nats possibly take Judge; he's 7 years older, not as good a hitter, and has 2 years less team control. It just moves the Nats' Soto problem two years ahead its currently scheduled arrival),
I don't see how they put together a package that couldn't be topped by the Rays, who would likely be willing to keep Soto through the 2024 season and let him go instead of signing him to Boras' $500 million deal. For example, the Rays could started with Josh Lowe, Shane Baz and Vidal Brujan all 50 grade prospects and higher, all of whom are major league ready right now. Throw in Arozarena for a current major league outfielder, and you have a total of about $180 million in marginal value, about what Soto alone is worth.
The Yanks might desire Soto and need Soto as much as any team in MLB, I just don't see how they pull it off.
Sad to say, qwik, I think you're right. Your first and last sentence say it all. One thing will likely happen if he goes to the Jays or Tampa: Hal will be all but forced to re-sign Judge for a ten-year deal and uber dollars.
Because Volpe, Peraza and Dominguez are all off to very poor starts this season, the Yanks probably can't match other teams top prospects and get Soto.
However, keeping in mind:
1) Soto is the best left-handed hitter in all of MLB, a truly elite hitter who dictates at bats to even the best pitchers
2) That an elite left-handed hitter than can play the outfield and bat 3rd in the order is something the Yankees desperately need to balance their lineup
3) That he's only 23
5) That he has a history of not getting seriously injured, at least so far
6) That he's under team control until the end of the 2024 season,
7) And he helped the Nationals take down a World Series title in his second season.
A trade for Soto might look like this:
1) Gleyber Torres and Jordan Montgomery or Nestor Cortes (because the Yankees have no Alex Verdugo to put in the deal at the moment)
2) Volpe (assuming the Nats like him better than Peraza)
3) Dominguez, whose value has plummeted since he started playing in the minors
4) Waldichuk
5) King
6) Florial (just to give them a passable body to play the outfield, one who might still turn into a viable regular).
7) Luis Medina
And these 8 players will not even match the marginal value than Soto alone is worth, right now. Right now, Soto is worth about $200 million plus in marginal value. Putting the best possible face on the 8 players I've put in the deal from the Yankee side, these eight players might be worth about $150 million in marginal value.
I know it seems absurd that a package like this might not be enough to get Soto, but Soto is, right now, a 7 WAR player (worth about $50-60 million a year in marginal value) being paid like a 2-4 WAR player over the next three seasons. As such, just for 2022, 2023 and 2024, alone, assuming the trade happens at the dealine, his surplus value will be something like $15 million for the remainder of 2022, $34 million for all of 2023, and $24 million for all of 2024. Then, assuming he just continues to hit like he has so far, and doesn't improve for the next 2-3 seasons as he should, his salary will be at least $40 million a year, and his marginal value drops to about $15 million a year, until he starts to age out of his prime somewhere between 28 and 32.
The truth is that compared to the state of other teams' farm systems (like the Rays or the Tigers or the Orioles or the Blue Jays, who all have multiple players in their farms or recently promoted who have scouting grades of 55 or better; the Yanks have NONE of those right now, what they have is a ton of guys in the lower levels who are grades 35+ or 40, and some have the potential to become grade 50 or better, but aren't close yet.
Right now, anyone still reading thinks I'm crazy, but that's the reality of the Yanks trying to trade for Soto. Even if they threw Judge back to keep say, King and one of the prospects who is not Volpe out of it (and for what reason would the Nats possibly take Judge; he's 7 years older, not as good a hitter, and has 2 years less team control. It just moves the Nats' Soto problem two years ahead its currently scheduled arrival),
I don't see how they put together a package that couldn't be topped by the Rays, who would likely be willing to keep Soto through the 2024 season and let him go instead of signing him to Boras' $500 million deal. For example, the Rays could started with Josh Lowe, Shane Baz and Vidal Brujan all 50 grade prospects and higher, all of whom are major league ready right now. Throw in Arozarena for a current major league outfielder, and you have a total of about $180 million in marginal value, about what Soto alone is worth.
The Yanks might desire Soto and need Soto as much as any team in MLB, I just don't see how they pull it off.
Maybe the Yanks could eat one of the Nats bad salaries (like say Corbin or Strasburg) which is something the Rays can't do - but yes, the price would be steep and there would be lots of competition.
Gleyber, Volpe, Peraza, Dominguez, Arias, Schmidt, Medina, Waldichuk, Wells - you'd be giving up 5+ players in that stratosphere to get Soto.
The Rays have the prospects, but will they give Soto the kind of contract he wants? Since it's likely Soto will have the biggest contract or close to biggest contract in MLB. There are only a few teams that could trade for Soto and re-sign him, so that brings the asking price for him down somewhat, but not much.
Yankees need to be all in if the Nats are willing to deal Soto.
The return would probably sting, but just imagine a LH bat like that being added to the lineup. And he'd be insurance in case Judge were to depart as a free agent.
I am sure, with 1,000% confidence the Yankees have been looking into this. At least from the time when the rumor of Soto's availability was reported weeks ago.
1) Gleyber Torres and Jordan Montgomery or Nestor Cortes (because the Yankees have no Alex Verdugo to put in the deal at the moment)
2) Volpe (assuming the Nats like him better than Peraza)
3) Dominguez, whose value has plummeted since he started playing in the minors
4) Waldichuk
5) King
6) Florial (just to give them a passable body to play the outfield, one who might still turn into a viable regular).
7) Luis Medina
That's it? I would do that in a half a heartbeat. However, i would not part with Nestor Cortes.
One thing that the Yankees have proven to me, in the past number of years is that prospects grow on trees.
This is why I want the Yankees to hoard prospects so they can acquire players such Juan Soto and not the average type of player who is having a great season at the age of 27+ years, who people believe is peaking. I don' categorize Juan Soto as that type of player.
.....
For the past years, I have been calling for the Yankees to save and horde prospects for either the team's own use or for trade bait. However, if a player like Juan Soto is available, I think the Yankees should go all out and acquire him. For Soto, it's not just the regular baseball numbers that the Yankees need to look at it, it's everything. Every analytical offensive and defensive point has to be scrutinized to ensure that not only would Juan Soto be a fit, but could potentially become a Hall of Famer and a Yankee Legend. Acquiring and paying Juan Soto would be a tremendous investment for the future of the Yankees. In my opinion, he is the type of player, the Yankees can empty the farm system with, if they can.
When I say "scrutinize" I mean everything! Including his health. I want to make sure that his high offensive output isn't a result of a juiced ball or of PEDs.
The Yankees can overpay for Judge and Soto to be on the same team, thus forming a R-L-R , that would include Stanton. However, for the sake of payroll flexibility I would surely be in favor of the Yankees cutting costs everywhere else. However, the Yankees would need (IMO) to keep DJ Lemahieu. With these 4 players, they can Moneyball the rest of the lineup.
I will tell you this. For the past few years, I was DEAD AGAINST the Yankees trading quality pieces from our farm system to acquire "good" players having a great year. ALL OF THOSE PLAYERS (to me) NONE WERE NOT WORTH IT. LOL....Matt Olsen was NOT WORTH IT. Francisco Lindor was NOT WORTH IT. Trevor Story NOT WORTH IT. Robbie Ray.....NOT WORTH IT. Even Bryce Harper and Manny Machado....NOT WORTH IT. Even the Free Agents, not worth the money.
The Rays have the prospects, but will they give Soto the kind of contract he wants? Since it's likely Soto will have the biggest contract or close to biggest contract in MLB. There are only a few teams that could trade for Soto and re-sign him, so that brings the asking price for him down somewhat, but not much.
You can eliminate maybe a dozen teams that will have no interest in Soto simply on the basis that they are not even trying to win. Then you have teams that are actually trying to win even with very small payrolls. Think Cleveland or St Louis. So would one of these teams be williong to completely gut their farm system plus maybe a couple of regulars for an affordable Soto and a chance to catch lightning in a bottle for the 2022-2024 seasons before watching him leave for big $$ elsewhere? Will they learn from the Angels who have had one VERY expensive player, arguably the best non-pitcher in baseball but have not made the playoffs since 2014?
That leaves maybe 4 teams that mightrealistically think about signing Soto as a FA - Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees and maybe Houston. And take the Yankees off the list IF they re-sign Judge.
Regarding trading for Juan Soto, presuming he is available, he would have 2 1/2 years of control remaining, which is a lot. Therefore, given his projected performance, and that control fact, it would very likely take most of the top ranked Yankees prospects to get him.
Volpe, Dominguez, Peraza, Wells, Sweeney. Probably add a pitcher or two - Waldichuck and/or Gomez. Or maybe a Mike King or Nestor Cortes. The Nats will be looking for tremendous return, as they will be in rebuild mode, especially if they decide to move Soto. I don't think this list is out of the question.
That would be 6-7 of the Yankees top 10 ranked prospects. It would gut the farm, and create other roster problems in the near future. Soto plays RF/LF, not CF, so that issue would remain, unless he can convert. The Yankees would still have other positions to fix, via trade (not probable once gutting SWB), more likely a FA.
Lastly, in a couple of years Soto will want possibly upwards of $500m for 10 or more years. That, along with the contracts of Cole, Stanton, maybe Judge, will hamper this team going forward in the FA market.
The Angels have not made the playoffs in years with possibly the best player in MLB. What have the Phillies done since Harper. The Yanks thought Stanton would get them to a WS title. Then Cole was the last big piece. Many millions later, we have seen that we have not even made the WS, let alone won it.
Regarding trading for Juan Soto, presuming he is available, he would have 2 1/2 years of control remaining, which is a lot. Therefore, given his projected performance, and that control fact, it would very likely take most of the top ranked Yankees prospects to get him.
Volpe, Dominguez, Peraza, Wells, Sweeney. Probably add a pitcher or two - Waldichuck and/or Gomez. Or maybe a Mike King or Nestor Cortes. The Nats will be looking for tremendous return, as they will be in rebuild mode, especially if they decide to move Soto. I don't think this list is out of the question.
That would be 6-7 of the Yankees top 10 ranked prospects. It would gut the farm, and create other roster problems in the near future. Soto plays RF/LF, not CF, so that issue would remain, unless he can convert. The Yankees would still have other positions to fix, via trade (not probable once gutting SWB), more likely a FA.
Lastly, in a couple of years Soto will want possibly upwards of $500m for 10 or more years. That, along with the contracts of Cole, Stanton, maybe Judge, will hamper this team going forward in the FA market.
The Angels have not made the playoffs in years with possibly the best player in MLB. What have the Phillies done since Harper. The Yanks thought Stanton would get them to a WS title. Then Cole was the last big piece. Many millions later, we have seen that we have not even made the WS, let alone won it.
Adding to your last paragraph, the Nationals had Juan Soto in 2020 and 2021 and finished 4th and 5th and are currently in last place with him in 2022.
