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Which Yankee have a shot at the All-Star team?
2 months ago  ::  Jun 07, 2022 - 1:16PM #1
NY23
Posts: 20,353

How many Yankees pitchers could make the All-Star team?



We’ve more or less reached the one-third mark of the regular season, which means the All-Star Game voting season is just around the corner. It fact, it’s here, with the fan ballot opening tomorrow at 12:00 P.M. EDT. Earlier in the day, John ran down a list of Yankees hitters who have a shot at making the team, which means it’s my turn to review the pitchers who could represent the AL in Los Angeles on July 19th.


Although fans unfortunately can’t vote in this category, AL skipper Dusty Baker and the rest of the players around the league are all but guaranteed to take several of the Yankees’ potent arms into consideration.


Starting Rotation


Locks


As Joe wrote last week, Nestor Cortes has a strong claim to start the All-Star Game for the American League. It’s no stretch of the imagination to say that he has been one of the best starters in baseball and currently sports the lowest ERA (1.50) among all qualified pitchers in the league while sitting fourth in fWAR (1.9) and FIP (2.49) and sixth in K-BB% (23.6 percent). And he’s doing it all with a fastball whose average velocity places it in the fifth percentile of the league. His combination of elite raw stuff from a movement standpoint, craft, and moxie are a breath of fresh air compared to stereotypical image of the hulking starter storming around the mound in a huff.


Gerrit Cole is the other Yankees starter who’s a lock to make the All-Star team. After a putrid start to the season that saw him allow eight runs in 11.1 innings across his first three starts, Cole is right back to looking like the most dominant pitcher in the AL. In those intervening eight starts, Cole is tops in MLB in fWAR (2.2) and second in K-BB% (29.5 percent). Overall, he sits tied with teammate Cortes for fourth in fWAR (1.9), fourth in K-BB% (25.7 percent), and seventh in FIP (2.58). He averages the highest velocity on his fastball (97.8 mph) of any starter in baseball which along with the addition of a cutter has allowed him to tally the third-most strikeouts (81) in the first third of the season.


Other Possibilities


Jameson Taillon has a borderline case for being a lock for the All-Star Game — he’s been that good to start the season. He owns the lowest walk rate (2.2 percent) among all qualified pitchers, allowing him to be pitch efficient and go deep in games — he’s lasted at least seven innings in each of his last three starts. He won’t wow you with the strikeout totals, but he leverages his six-pitch mix to keep hitters off-balance. He currently sits seventh among AL starters in fWAR (1.6), and eighth in ERA (2.30) and FIP (2.88). That he has quietly transformed himself into a top-ten starter in the AL is made all the more impressive given the injuries he’s had to overcome in his career.


Like teammate Taillon, Luis Severino is one of the feel-good stories in MLB. To see him reclaim some of the form that made him a dominant ace in the league before losing the majority of three consecutive seasons to injury is inspiring. But this isn’t the same pitcher that terrorized opposing lineups in 2017 and 2018. Severino’s evolution — including reshaping his slider, adding a cutter, and diversifying his changeup usage — makes him arguably a better pitcher even if he’s not routinely hitting triple digits on the radar gun. Speaking of that cutter, it’s already one of the best in the game, inducing the third-highest whiff rate (54.8 percent) of any in baseball. He is comfortably in the top-20 among AL starters in ERA, FIP, K-BB%, and fWAR


Jordan Montgomery has probably the slimmest chance of his rotationmates at making the All-Star Game, but I was surprised to learn that he is actually out-pitching Severino in a handful of categories. Stylistically, he doesn’t feel like your normal All-Star Game pitcher, relying on changeup and curveball for almost half his pitches. Then again, neither does Cortes. Like Severino, Montgomery is in the top-20 among AL starters in ERA, FIP, K-BB%, and fWAR, so it’s a matter of whether voters can look past his win-loss record (he’s 1-1 after receiving some of the worst run support of any starting pitcher) and recognize how effective a pitcher he’s been.


Bullpen


Locks


Clay Holmes has been arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball to start the season. After giving up a run on Opening Day against the Red Sox, Holmes has not surrendered another in the 24 games across 26 innings since. His demon sinker grades out as the third-best pitch in baseball at -11 runs according to Statcast and a .190 xwOBA against. As if that wasn’t enough, he was one of the first Yankees pitchers to adapt the whirly slider, and it already features some of the most horizontal movement of any slider in baseball. He is third in MLB behind only Josh Hader and J.P. Feyereisen (who have yet to give up a run this season) in ERA (0.34) and inside the top-10 in walk rate and FIP.


The only other pitcher who could challenge Holmes for the crown of most valuable reliever in baseball is teammate Michael King, who currently sits atop the MLB reliever leaderboard with 1.4 fWAR and 42 strikeouts. He also leads all pitchers in called-strike-plus-whiff rate (38.3 percent) and is sixth in put-away rate (percent of two-strike pitches resulting in strikeout) (32.8 percent). Among AL relievers, King is third in K-BB% (30.3 percent) and sixth in FIP (1.85). If not for a rocky stretch in May that saw him give up nine runs on 15 hits in 11.1 innings, we’d be talking about King as the unequivocal best reliever in MLB.


Other Possibilities


This one’s definitely a stretch, but Wandy Peralta may have an outside shot at sneaking into the All-Star Game, especially if some of the pitchers ahead of him in the AL pecking order miss the game due to injury or opt-out. Thanks to a fastball-changeup combo that feature well-above-average horizontal movement, Peralta has thrived at inducing weak contact. He is currently in the 94th percentile in opponent wOBA, 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, and owns the 16th-highest groundball rate (55.6 percent) of any AL reliever. His 1.96 ERA is good for 24th among AL relievers, so it’ll undoubtedly be an uphill battle for the lefty to receive an invite to Los Angeles.

2 months ago  ::  Jun 07, 2022 - 1:18PM #2
NY23
Posts: 20,353

Which Yankee hitters have a shot at the All-Star team?


Aaron Judge


Any discussion about which players will make the AL All-Star team must begin with Aaron Judge, and no I’m not just talking about which Yankees will make the team. Remember how good No. 99 was as a rookie in 2017? This year, he’s been even better. He leads the AL in fWAR with 3.2 and ranks second in bWAR with 2.9. He paces the majors in home runs with 21; the trio of players tied for second — Mookie Betts, Yordan Álvarez, and Pete Alonso — have just 16 apiece. Judge’s 200 wRC+ is also tops in baseball. For more traditionally-minded folks, his .313 batting average is eighth in the AL, and his .382 on-base percentage tenth. Unless you need a sacrifice bunt, there’s no hitter you would want at the plate in a big spot than Aaron Judge right now.


That’s only half of the story, too. Judge has been providing this offensive performance while spending almost as much time in center field as he has in his typical right field (226.2 innings in right field vs. 165.0 in center to date). And while the defensive metrics aren’t as in love with his performance as they typically are (-1 Outs Above Average, -2 Defensive Runs Saved, 8.4 UZR/150 in center field, 2 OAA, 0 DRS, -0.4 UZR/150 in right field), his ability to play both positions competently while providing this level of offensive production makes him one of the most valuable players in baseball — and a shoo-in for the AL starting lineup in July.


Jose Trevino


After starting the season as the clear backup to Kyle Higashioka, Jose Trevino has quickly become a favorite among Yankees fans for his big performances in clutch spots and for his infectious personality. But what you may not have realized is that as he burrowed into your hearts, he climbed the rankings.




Despite having a relatively small number of plate appearances, Trevino has accrued the second-most fWAR among AL catchers, behind only Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk. He has been elite offensively (his 133 wRC+ ranks second) and behind the plate (he leads the AL with 6 DRS, and he is tied for second in Catcher Framing Runs).


If Trevino continues this performance, then he definitely deserves to head to LA this July. Unfortunately for him, at time of writing, we do not know whether the Yankees put him or Higashioka on the ballot — something that teams usually have to decide quite early in the season. If they went with Higgy, that pretty much eliminates any chance of him making the roster as a starter, and given the sheer amount of Yankees players with a case for All-Star nods (particularly on the pitching staff), he might simply end up as an easy odd man out.


Anthony Rizzo


At the start of the season, Anthony Rizzo hit like the young first baseman who went to three straight All-Star Games with the Cubs, slashing .273/.391/.675 with 9 home runs in 20 games. That torrid month has made it possible for Rizzo to make a push for an All-Star nod despite a May in which he slashed .167/.268/.313 with just a pair of long balls.


Still, through no fault of his own, he has an uphill battle. Seattle first baseman Ty France has announced that his breakout 2021 was no fluke, and through his first 54 games he has posted a 169 wRC+ and accrued 2.2 fWAR. Chicago’s José Abreu, meanwhile, has continued to mash, while the flexible Luis Arraez has seized the job in Minnesota. And then, of course, there’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a 129 wRC+ and only just now appears to be getting into a groove at the plate. The fact that Guerrero was last year’s leading vote-getter and that he has an entire country behind him works in his favor, too.


First base is a stacked position in the American League this year. Unless Rizzo has a really strong June and sets himself apart from the rest of the pack, it’s likely that he’ll end up on the outside looking in.


Gleyber Torres


In many ways, Gleyber Torres is in the exact opposite situation as Rizzo. He got off to an incredibly slow start to the season, accruing -0.2 fWAR and posting a wRC+ of just 40 through the first two weeks of the season. Since April 21st, however, Torres has been one of the AL’s best second baseman, with a .274/.308/.526 slash line and 9 home runs in 39 games. Because of this, he now ranks eighth in the league among second basemen with 0.7 fWAR (and you can argue that he should technically rank seventh, since the multi-positional DJ LeMahieu ranks above him). His 10 home runs are tied with Jose Altuve for most among AL second basemen, while is 118 wRC+ ranks fifth. Additionally, Gleyber’s 6 DRS and 7.4 UZR/150 are the most at the keystone among qualified defenders, although it should also be noted that OAA is less high on him at -1.


So Torres as he continues his current hot streak — he is slashing .265/.294/.612 with five home runs in his last 13 games — then he has an outside shot of making his third All-Star Game. Even so, it won’t be easy, not in the slightest. Altuve undoubtedly has one of those spots locked down, while Boston’s Trevor Story and Cleveland’s Andrés Giménez have strong candidacies of their own. That said, at this point in time, nobody has really run away with it, and to a large degree, second base will come down to a mixture of popularity and the month of June.


DJ LeMahieu


When it comes to the All-Star Game, DJ LeMahieu finds himself in a tricky spot. Among second basemen, his 1.3 fWAR is tied for fifth, while among third basemen, it is tied for fourth. But in truth, LeMahieu is neither a second basemen or a third basemen, but rather a generic infielder: he has played 7 games at first base, 15 at the keystone, and 26 at the hot corner. When you’re trying to determine LeMahieu’s worthiness for the All-Star team, where do you put him? That’s the big question. It’s up in the air whether he or Gleyber Torres is the Yankees’ listed second baseman on the ballot, and Josh Donaldson will almost certainly be listed at the hot corner. LeMahieu might have to make it a reserve.


At this moment in time, LeMahieu compares most favorably to the second basemen, tied with Torres for fifth in wRC+ (118) and ranking fourth in on-base percentage (.339), all the while providing average to above-average defense (8.6 UZR/150, -1 DRS, 0 OAA). But he’s only played 112 innings there. On the flip side, while he’s provided 204 innings of elite defense at the hot corner (his 5 DRS are second only to Donaldson and his 3 OAA second only to Oakland’s Kevin Smith, while his 15.3 UZR/150 lead the league), his offensive numbers pale in respect to the league’s elite third basemen: his 118 wRC+, although fourth in the AL, pales in comparison to José Ramírez (190) and Rafael Devers (176).


There is a route to LA for LeMahieu, however. If DJ can hit anything remotely close to how he did in June 2019 — when he led the AL with a 188 wRC+ and drilled six home runs — while continuing to play elite defense at third and solid defense at second, then his flexibility might just give him the edge over a player with similar numbers.


Giancarlo Stanton


Back when he played for the Miami Marlins, Giancarlo Stanton was a staple at the All-Star Game. Since coming to the Yankees, a mixture of bad luck — he was injured for much of 2019, and there was no All-Star Game in 2020 — and elite DH performances have kept Stanton at home during the break. So long as the voters consider him exclusively as a designated hitter, that does not project to change in 2022.


At this point in time, the starting DH in the AL is likely to be one of Yordan Álvarez, J.D. Martinez, or Shohei Ohtani, and honestly, it’s hard to complain about that. Álvarez has been one of the most electric young hitters in the game, and his 192 wRC+ is the only one in the same ballpark as Judge in the AL this year. Although his home runs are down, Martinez is an on-base machine for the Red Sox, reaching base more than 40 percent of the time. And Ohtani is, well, Ohtani — one of the faces of the game and an extraordinarily popular player.


Clearly, Stanton is not making the team as a starting DH. But what about as a reserve outfielder? The slugger already has 19 games in right field this season, and while that’s not exactly a lot, it might be enough for managers and players to consider him as an outfielder/DH hybrid when they vote — so long as he continues to play the outfield about half the time in June, as he had been before he got injured. And that’s a good thing for Stanton, as his performance ranks very highly among AL outfielders: his 143 wRC+ and 11 home runs are fifth, while his 35 RBIs rank third. And while he may not play Gold Glove defense out there, he’s not incompetent with the glove, either, as his 13.0 UZR/150 ranks 11th among 70 AL outfielders with 100 innings or more.

2 months ago  ::  Jun 08, 2022 - 2:40PM #3
NY23
Posts: 20,353

MLB Insider Predicts Only Three Yankees Will Make 2022 All-Star Game


MINNEAPOLIS — Voting for the 2022 MLB All-Star Game opened on Wednesday, making this the perfect time to take a look ahead at which Yankees will make an appearance in this year's Midsummer Classic.


Even with historic performances on both sides of the ball for the best team in baseball, former GM and current MLB insider Jim Bowden predicted that only three Yankees will earn a spot on the American League roster. 


Here are the three players in pinstripes that Bowden has making the All-Star Game (two of them penciled in as starters), with some of his analysis over at The Athletic


Aaron Judge


Starter in right field — Judge is the AL MVP as of today. He’s slashed .313/.382/.677 with 21 home runs and 42 RBIs, and played Gold Glove defense.


Nestor Cortes


Starting pitcher — Cortes would be the front-runner for AL Cy Young Award if the season ended today. He’s gone 5-1 with a league-leading 1.50 ERA in 10 starts. He’s struck out 68 and allowed only 38 hits in 60 innings. He’s deceptive, knows how to pitch and keeps hitters off-balance with different arm angles.


Gerrit Cole


Cole is having another impressive season, going 5-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 81 strikeouts (second in AL) in 64 2/3 innings. With Cortes and Cole making the team, Jameson Taillon probably misses out unless there are injuries.


From there, Bowden listed a slew of Yankees in the "just missed" category:

  • Clay Holmes
  • Jameson Taillon
  • Luis Severino
  • Giancarlo Stanton
  • Gleyber Torres
  • Jose Trevino
  • Anthony Rizzo

Three players making the All-Star Game from one team would be nothing to sneeze at—especially with Cortes getting the nod on the bump—but you have to figure some of those honorable mentions make the cut as well, right?


Holmes hasn't allowed a run in 26 straight innings entering play on Wednesday, posting a 0.34 ERA this season with seven saves. Rizzo has hit 14 home runs, tied for the fifth-most homers in baseball. Before Taillon's outing on Tuesday, the right-hander was among the league's leaders in ERA, pitching like an elite No. 2 starter. Trevino has been the best catcher in the league when it comes to pitch framing, making significant contributions on the offensive side of the ball as well. 


Obviously, there's still plenty of time for some of those players to make a push and earn some more votes. Also, Bowden's predictions are just one opinion. 


If you want to vote for your favorite Yankees—or any of your favorite players, for that matter—click here to head over to MLB.com and vote on this year's ballot for the first time.

2 months ago  ::  Jun 12, 2022 - 9:33AM #4
NY23
Posts: 20,353

Predicting which Yankees will make 2022 All-Star Game


Fansided: Yanks Go Yard


The New York Yankees sit with the best record in baseball through early June, and are uniquely poised to dominate the 2022 All-Star Game rosters from all angles. From the offense to the bullpen to the entirety of the rotation, the Bombers have just been … better than the rest thus far. Sometimes, Yankee fans say it, but don’t mean it. At this point … how can you not mean it?!


There will be a few snubs, though. We’re not breaking new ground by making this statement. The Yanks are, for one thing, despised. For another, the league’s lowliest teams need at least one representative, meaning a potential Yankee slot will be filled by the A’s, Mariners, Orioles and Royals. Yuck, etc.


So, who gets a free trip to Los Angeles and doesn’t get to rest during the midsummer break? Who gets to watch the game at home/on a fishing boat/on a sand-flecked Caribbean couch while being hand-fed grapes?


Based on past contests, star power usually helps out quite a bunch; MLB would rather see a big name rather than a one-hit wonder having a slightly better season.


When that first-time candidate is blowing the vet’s doors off, though, the league usually slides ’em in. Especially if there’s a great story.


Though there may occasionally be a statistical argument to the contrary in a few of these cases, this is the likeliest projection.


Predicting Yankees players on 2022 MLB All-Star Game Roster


The Near-Misses: Luis Severino, Jameson Taillon, Anthony Rizzo


As much as we’d love to tip our cap to Severino in the midst of his comeback season after 3.5 lost years from 2019 to Opening Day, he’s the second-lowest member on the totem pole in the Yankees rotation’s All-Star efforts. Which is crazy! Jordan Montgomery and his 1.006 WHIP and 3.02 ERA would be the Royals’ shoo-in All-Star!


Severino, after seven one-hit innings against the Detroit Tigers, possesses a 4-1 record, 2.95 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 55 innings. Though advanced metrics don’t dictate All-Star appearances (and probably shouldn’t!), he’s in the upper echelon of those numbers, too. He just doesn’t quite have the counting numbers, especially compared to his own rotation-mates, and there are tons of highly-qualified names.


Jameson Taillon, too, would be an All-Star representative for a lesser team, but would need eye-popping numbers to join the group representing the Yankees. After Tuesday’s iffy start against the Twins, Taillon possesses a 2.73 ERA and just 47 Ks in 62.2 innings. An extremely valuable pitcher? Yes! An All-Star? In this economy? Not unless he ducks his ERA closer to 2.00.


Anthony Rizzo tailed off a bit in recent weeks before a resurgence, and his 126 OPS+, 38 RBI and sterling defense still make him one of the league’s steadiest veteran presences. He’s been a more valuable Yankee than he has been a certified star, though. Add in a crowded field at first (though less crowded than usual, with Matt Olson in Atlanta), and Freeman is probably a step beyond the fringes.


Predicting Yankees’ Offensive Players’ All-Star Game Chances


Lock: Aaron Judge


This argument is one sentence long: Aaron Judge, the face of baseball, is on a 65-home run pace in a contract year. He will be representing the Yankees at the 2022 All-Star Game. If he is injured, he will be named and replaced. He had better be a starter.


Yes: Giancarlo Stanton


Pending injury, Giancarlo Stanton will fly to Los Angeles on the heels of his name recognition, legitimate superstar flash, and exceptional season. Despite a recent break on the IL, Stanton’s credentials are unimpeachable thus far, with 12 bombs, 36 RBI, an .851 OPS, and a 145 OPS+, above his sterling career average of 143. He’s an all-time power talent having another all-time season. This would be his first Yankees All-Star Game; he hasn’t made it since 2017 as a Miami Marlin. How can the committee (fans, managers, players) pass up on that?


No: Jose Trevino


We’d love to send one of the game’s best framers and a surprisingly elite offensive talent in Jose Trevino to the All-Star Game, but unlike a certain funky left-hander, he’ll probably remain a niche story in Yankee Land for now. Next season? Trevino could grab the reins as a full-time starter and make a Nestor-like leap. In 2022? Not enough reps; conventional wisdom says it’ll be Alejandro Kirk and Jonah Heim (though the Jays just called up Gabriel Moreno, also a catcher … man, there are NO CATCHERS …).


Predicting Yankees Pitchers’ All-Star Game Chances


Lock: Nestor Cortes Jr.


Nestor Cortes Jr. should be the AL’s All-Star starter, for narrative purposes. We’ve been through this already. If he doesn’t make the team at all, we riot. The calendar has turned to mid-June. Even after a stinker in Minnesota (helped along by Giancarlo Stanton’s defensive lapses), his ERA still sits below 2.00. He’s faced top competition, and rarely (if ever) blinked. He also looked great in 2021. MLB loves great stories, and Nestor’s rise to the top of the Yankees’ rotation is arguably this year’s greatest.


Sure Lock Holmes: Clay Holmes


After watching Aroldis Chapman get a gift desperation All-Star berth in 2021, how does Holmes not make it this season? He was the most dominant eighth-inning man in baseball who’s become the most dominant closer. Through 25 games, he’s been worth 1.6 WAR, holds an 0.34 ERA and 0.675 WHIP. He limits hard contact — as well as any contact — with an eminently controllable turbo sinker. Behind Judge, he’s the most obvious Yankees All-Star pick.


Yes: Gerrit Cole


At the end of the day, name recognition wins out — and, oh yeah, Gerrit Cole’s numbers are once again mind-boggling after a rough three-start stretch to open the campaign. Cole, too, has matched Holmes’ 1.6 WAR (insane, when you think about it) and has struck out 81 men in 64.2 innings pitched entering Thursday’s start in Minnesota. This Spider Tack Merchant is also, uh, one of the game’s best. And, as the Yankees’ ace, he’s more likely to get the nod than…


No (Edged Out by Cole): Michael King


Look, we wish Michael King could get the gig, but what are the odds the league brings two Yankees bullpen pieces — ostensibly non-closers — to the big game? King scuffled with his command in May after owning the breakout narrative race in April. The Yankees’ Swiss Army knife has 42 Ks in 31 innings pitched and has dominated every metric but hard-hit percentage, but … he’s not Cole, and he’s not Holmes. He might be the most important Yankee arm in the pursuit of a championship, but despite Mike Petriello’s plea, he’s probably not climbing the mountain ahead of Cole.

2 months ago  ::  Jun 12, 2022 - 10:52AM #5
laurenfrances
Posts: 47,279

Here I'm hoping our guys rest for those days. ASG does mean much outside of entertainment value.  What exactly is garnered by going all out to win????  Not a thing.

2 months ago  ::  Jun 12, 2022 - 12:56PM #6
Max
Posts: 10,343

I don't know about the all star game and I couldn't care less about it. But I along with a couple of other posters have been saying for at least 2 weeks that Trevino should be the Yankees starting catcher. 

2 months ago  ::  Jun 12, 2022 - 1:26PM #7
luvdayanks
Posts: 31,200

Jun 12, 2022 -- 12:56PM, Max wrote:


I don't know about the all star game and I couldn't care less about it. But I along with a couple of other posters have been saying for at least 2 weeks that Trevino should be the Yankees starting catcher. 




You'll,never hear that from Boone but I think we'll see Trevino play 2/1 2/1 from here on.

2 months ago  ::  Jun 13, 2022 - 7:53AM #8
bomberhojoe
Posts: 15,356

I remember when I was a kid in the 70s how cool the all-star game was. I'm sure part of it is getting older, but it just seems so ho-hum now.

John 3:16 * Ephesians 2:8-9 * Romans 10:9-10 * John 14:3-6 * Romans 5:8
2 months ago  ::  Jun 13, 2022 - 8:31AM #9
xnewyorker
Posts: 935

Jun 12, 2022 -- 10:52AM, laurenfrances wrote:


Here I'm hoping our guys rest for those days. ASG does mean much outside of entertainment value.  What exactly is garnered by going all out to win????  Not a thing.





Agreed.


Rest for the 2nd half and get ready to battle.


2 months ago  ::  Jun 13, 2022 - 10:49AM #10
laurenfrances
Posts: 47,279

I better not see Judge/Stanton pushed by MLB to compete in HR derby.


For sure Judge doesn't want to hurt his chances of a mega contract to come. It would not behoove him to compromise his chances swing the bats with nothing to gain.

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