under and not by an insignificant amount. I think somewhere around 87/88
I'm a hopeful for more than that but they could be worse. The Yankees have not really improved anywhere besides Rodon (and that's assuming he stays healthy) unless at least two of the three young guys come through big time. Peraza will be a better defender, not sure how much he'll outhit Falefa by. His offensive game could disappear in a hail of chasing low breaking balls.
The Jays are better.
The Rays aren't going anywhere.
The O's could have a consolidation season after making a big move forward, but they have several more outstanding prospects coming online this season, and they'll get full seasons from Henderson and Rutschman this year.
The Red Sox look like the last place team to me, but they might wind up over .500 even if they do finish last.
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I can't forget the the Yanks were 64-28 after 92 games, but played .500 ball the rest of the year, before scraping by Cleveland and getting manhandled by the Astros. Judge propped them up in that last 70 games, but last season was very much a career year, and even if he doesn't get injured for significant time this season, you have to expect signifcant regression to his career mean for him. Meanwhile, the Orioles were 48-35 in their last 83 games.
To me, right now, the bullpen, which used to be the backbone of this team, is the least stable part. The critical factors are whether King can return to being a force in set up, Holmes can come halfway back from where he wound up at seasons's end to where he was through the first half. They also need guys like Cortes and Severino to hold up for most of another season. They also need Bader back sooner rather than later. They need Stanton and Donaldson to be better than they were for the last 4 months of the season. Not a ton better, but some.
I could be wrong, but to me, it seems very possible the Yanks will be tooth and nail with the O's for 3rd and 4th.
